tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post1942361076484172500..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: On being a liberal economics bloggerNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-73402834497639292632012-07-03T20:55:48.393-04:002012-07-03T20:55:48.393-04:00The Summers/Delong paper wasn't compelling eit...The Summers/Delong paper wasn't compelling either then?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-80815389126556547832012-06-20T21:42:02.635-04:002012-06-20T21:42:02.635-04:00Read "A New Kind of Science". If you ca...Read "A New Kind of Science". If you can get past the self-aggrandisement, the insight into the limitations of mathematics is worthwhile for any economist, as is Wolfram's exposition on the amazing complexity that can be generated from the very simplest imaginable dynamic process.Paul Andrewshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06520753710594617369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-39957715426096735412012-06-20T21:38:10.608-04:002012-06-20T21:38:10.608-04:00Policy-makers make policy according to their own i...Policy-makers make policy according to their own incentives. Some of these incentives stem from their politics. Some stem from self-interest. Policy-makers use models to justfy their actions, which often require an increase in debt. These are, as you state, simplified, and often do not portray any of the negative consequences of debt. The policy-maker doesn't particularly care so long as he is able to implement his agenda. This has the tendency to perpetuate and accentuate the models that downplay debt. Therefore politics has influenced the modelling landscale dramatically.<br /><br />Please provide citations for the extended New Keynesian models you refer to, specifically those that produce potential outcomes of government debt default and/or currency crisis/hyperinflation, and which therefore have something to tell us about the limits of government spending.Paul Andrewshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06520753710594617369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-41207513313631958772012-06-20T12:56:28.273-04:002012-06-20T12:56:28.273-04:00I agree that most macro models do not adequately a...I agree that most macro models do not adequately analyze the role of debt, but I think this has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with simplification. Debt arises only as a result of heterogeneity--one agent cannot borrow unless another agent is there to lend. Thus, we can't examine debt dynamics in models with a single representative agent. It is easy to criticize models for being oversimplified, but there is a real trade off--complicating the model hinders our abilities to do analysis on the model.<br /><br />For the record, Krugman and others have extended New Keynesian models to include heterogeneous agents specifically to study the role of debt. The results do not support your theses either that debt is ignored for political reasons, or that debt is an "Achilles heel" of New Keynesian theory. <br /><br />(Ok, I interpreted your use of "Keynesian" to mean "New Keynesian"--while the latter has been the most widely accepted consensus in macro for the last decade or so, there haven't been any "Keynesian" economists for a number of decades now.)Matthew Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10254244795963585737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-52565048815927224072012-06-20T11:51:13.003-04:002012-06-20T11:51:13.003-04:00Who is the most prominent proponent of Real Busine...Who is the most prominent proponent of Real Business Cycle theory in the blogosphere?Wonks Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-70317594876792318852012-06-20T10:46:52.259-04:002012-06-20T10:46:52.259-04:00What was the point of your 3:59 post then?What was the point of your 3:59 post then?Larry Headlundnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-87802743930840931282012-06-19T19:43:15.989-04:002012-06-19T19:43:15.989-04:00No, but Wolfram knew Feynman, who did not consider...No, but Wolfram knew Feynman, who did not consider him to be a "nut."<br /><br />http://www.stephenwolfram.com/publications/recent/feynman/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-58985771603645669472012-06-19T18:24:11.261-04:002012-06-19T18:24:11.261-04:00??????Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-64828166299146154202012-06-19T16:35:40.924-04:002012-06-19T16:35:40.924-04:00An accusation of prejudice or racism is particular...An accusation of prejudice or racism is particularly vile. As an honest intellectual you of course have proof to back it up. I'ld like to see it. Or an apology.Larry Headlundnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-14856147806792444032012-06-19T15:59:03.552-04:002012-06-19T15:59:03.552-04:00Hey, Larry, hide your kids, hide your wife:
http:...Hey, Larry, hide your kids, hide your wife:<br /><br />http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/06/19/the-rise-of-asian-americans/Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-63209584059087013222012-06-19T15:30:48.218-04:002012-06-19T15:30:48.218-04:00@Noah Smith
Is this somehow related to how some sm...@Noah Smith<br /><i>Is this somehow related to how some smart hard-working Indian guy is going to come to America and take your jerb?</i><br /><br />As it happens this dumb lazy one doesn't have to worry about anyone taking his job. That's the problem with imputing motives: you end up with cider in your ear.Larry Headlundnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-81290878509244705932012-06-19T15:26:42.421-04:002012-06-19T15:26:42.421-04:00@Anonymous
I'm not aware of any large liberal...@Anonymous<br /><br />I'm not aware of any large liberal bloc which is opposed to high-skill immigration. The identifiable political groups I see are<br /><br />1. Wall Street Journal Republicans. They favour immigration in general and guest worker programs at all skill levels.<br />2. Pat Buchanan Republicans. They oppose immigration mainly on social and assimilationist grounds. HSI is too small a portion of the whole to get much attention from them.<br />3. Mainstream Democrats. I don't know of any mainstream Democrats that oppose HSI. Rep. Dennis Kucinich I see opposes H1-B visas but voted to increase the number of high skilled immigrant visas in 2011.<br />4. Progressives. Using Digby as an example she is in favour of diversity and immigration in general and sympathetic to the problems of the undocumented. I have never seen a comment on HSI on her blog.<br /><br />I'm leaving out any ad hoc groups with no other identifiable political leanings.Larry Headlundnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-53352413248388042042012-06-19T15:11:44.233-04:002012-06-19T15:11:44.233-04:00Link:
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/...Link:<br /><br />http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/taylor-seems-to-agree-with-keynesians.html<br /><br />I just think it's really hard to understand the effects of stimulus, because the only data we have to go on is historical data. For one thing, it's hard to evaluate the long-term impact of stimulus because lags are long and variable, and there are lots of confounding shocks along the way.<br /><br />I've read some papers estimating the fiscal multiplier - Nakamura & Steinsson being IMHO the best. But in the end they all have to use structural models, and I can never quite bring myself to believe in those models.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-29931189393207919292012-06-19T14:46:15.226-04:002012-06-19T14:46:15.226-04:00"Or admit that I really have no idea if fisca..."Or admit that I really have no idea if fiscal stimulus is worth the cost."<br /><br />You don't provide a link for this admission. Without that context, I will make the general point that this sort of admission (about a particularly controversial issue) does smack of Joe Kleinian "reasonableness." There is enough literature on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus for you to have an opinion on whether it is effective. You can see how much is added to the national debt, the increase in servicing costs etc. and come away with an opinion on whether or not fiscal stimulus is a net plus. It's a tough problem, but if you wished to have an educated opinion on this matter you could. <br />On the other hand, if you're too busy to do this, you can simply say nothing on the issue and, if asked, simply say "I have not done that analysis."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-91857718042776732972012-06-19T13:27:19.581-04:002012-06-19T13:27:19.581-04:00You might find that getting published in the right...<i>You might find that getting published in the right journals - or at all - means joining a tribe; that moving up the tenure track demands it; that social pressures pull on you hard.</i><br /><br />I am not unaware of the existence of these phenomena... ;)Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-10521104727896745922012-06-19T13:21:18.699-04:002012-06-19T13:21:18.699-04:00You posit that the vast majority subscribe to trib...You posit that the vast majority subscribe to tribal knowledge, and in the next breath aver that you won't be like that.<br /><br />You might find that getting published in the right journals - or at all - means joining a tribe; that moving up the tenure track demands it; that social pressures pull on you hard. I can think of these circumstances with little thought and no imagination. The list is not exhaustive. <br /><br />Save this post so you can reread it in 20 years.<br /><br />It will then make you either laugh or cry.<br /><br />Cheers! (sort of)<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-1339464097905488652012-06-19T12:45:13.499-04:002012-06-19T12:45:13.499-04:00"As for Walt's comment on Wolfram, I am l..."As for Walt's comment on Wolfram, I am left to ask, Wasn't this the view of Einstein?"<br /><br />Beats me - I wasn't even aware that Einstein knew Wolfram.JohnRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-82812518138210924482012-06-19T12:42:08.917-04:002012-06-19T12:42:08.917-04:00Actually, I was thinking of the Spockian Paradox, ...Actually, I was thinking of the Spockian Paradox, but let that go. As a side-note, I still don't understand why Shasta doesn't market a daisy-flavored soda, but I suppose the question answers itself. Thinking about Science! (she blinded me with, Dolby, T., 1982), though, reminded me of one of the big problems so many people seem to have, that being figuring out how to let the data tell you what they mean as opposed to torturing the data until they tell you what you want to hear. I'm afraid that this is quite probably as common in the 'harder' sciences as in such relatively 'squishy' fields as economics. There are all sorts of ideologies and schools and etc., but Procrusteans are with us always and everywhere. ("When you pull all a cricket's legs off, it can't hear").JohnRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-84123496228546610402012-06-19T12:03:50.443-04:002012-06-19T12:03:50.443-04:00Before answering, it seems to me fair to ask you w...Before answering, it seems to me fair to ask you what do you mean "studied scientifically?"<br /><br />A few days ago, David Andolfatto, put up a link to a lecture by Richard Feynman on the scientific method.<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EYPapE-3FRw&noredirect=1<br /><br />Now it seems to me that we presently lack the tools to study irrationality, scientifically. Take what I hope we can agree to be history's most irrational case: Hitler. What laws, subject to what experiments, can one presently develop about Hitler?<br /><br />Did his mother love him too much, or not enough? See about 5:49 (A hates this mother)<br /><br />Viewed in this light, economics has a lot of data but it has no rules that really are confirmed by experiment. In fact, experiments (actual observation) shows that such "rules" as we have are wrong and not predictive.<br /><br />Take the "Phillips curve." How does the present state of economics differ from his comment that the indefiniteness permits the researcher to make his or her results "look like" science. at 5:45 <br /><br />My favorites of these is the so-called Taylor Rule and the Barro Equivalence, but there are many many others.<br /><br />In fact Keynes theory that government must borrow and spend at the zero bound is too indefinite to be called science. I doubt Keynes would, today, argue it was science.<br /><br />As for Walt's comment on Wolfram, I am left to ask, Wasn't this the view of Einstein?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-85150817960852387322012-06-19T09:37:48.834-04:002012-06-19T09:37:48.834-04:00Piling on here - anybody who maintains that irrati...Piling on here - anybody who maintains that irrational behavior can't be studied scientifically is wrong.<br /><br />'Bad science' would be studying irrational behavior as if it were rational, even after massive data comes in showing massive differences between theory and reality.Barry DeCiccohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04735814736387033844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-85165702227681003132012-06-19T09:36:02.959-04:002012-06-19T09:36:02.959-04:00I'll take a typo in a blog comment over sloppy...I'll take a typo in a blog comment over sloppy thinking in a magazine article any day.<br /><br /><br />And to hammer the point home, please note that nobody was on your case for typos.Barry DeCiccohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04735814736387033844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-55913698152920993812012-06-19T08:23:04.391-04:002012-06-19T08:23:04.391-04:00And you're my favorite lefty unlearningeconAnd you're my favorite lefty unlearningeconDaniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-15067229466292561162012-06-19T08:04:34.008-04:002012-06-19T08:04:34.008-04:00Wolfram is a nut. Nobody needs to address his pos...Wolfram is a nut. Nobody needs to address his position on anything.waltnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-60924965939289501492012-06-19T08:01:09.070-04:002012-06-19T08:01:09.070-04:00It seems to me that what you're saying is that...It seems to me that what you're saying is that epistemic norms should override political or ethical norms, and I agree completely. Science is still a normative discipline, insofar as it tells us how we ought to think and what we ought to believe, but if allegiance to science precedes allegiance to political ideology then at least we have an agreed-upon standard with which to challenge ideas and strive to improve them. We need what might be called a "methodological ideology" centered around science, rather than a "holy book ideology" centered around a preexisting set of assumptions. We need to establish a method of obtaining facts as the overriding value, rather than the inflexible checklist of "facts" that is typical of political ideology.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-12681489466692878122012-06-19T02:28:34.831-04:002012-06-19T02:28:34.831-04:00Wait, what? Are you saying that the study of irrat...Wait, what? Are you saying that the study of irrational things can never be a science, or that the assumption of market rationality is so ingrained in modern economics that if they get rid of it, they'll have to rename the field? Either one seems pretty questionable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com