tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post2398906007407606928..comments2024-03-18T22:32:52.802-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: KrugTron the InvincibleNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger225125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-1044798459804743882013-10-30T03:42:06.537-04:002013-10-30T03:42:06.537-04:00He's more on monetary i think.He's more on monetary i think.Chismosong Pinoyhttp://chismosongpinoy.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-50581238587288229612013-10-11T20:09:40.203-04:002013-10-11T20:09:40.203-04:00Noah,
You should re-read your stuff before you p...Noah,<br /> <br />You should re-read your stuff before you post. "Keynesian models aren't really used for forecasting the world; they're used as guides for policy" has got to be some sort of slip of the mind. Maybe you were thinking about getting up for coffee, or some team just scored on TV.<br /> <br />Whether or not a model can forecast is the sine-qua-non test you apply, to know whether you can use it for policy.<br /> <br />-dlj.DavidLJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04477517602668340521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-15095017121222244972013-06-06T10:54:34.056-04:002013-06-06T10:54:34.056-04:00Including his paper on Japan, seem to indicate tha...Including his paper on Japan, seem to indicate that he doesn't think monetary policy is necessarily ineffective at the ZLB, because it can operate through the expectations channels, and know more just <a href="http://www.bsatuning.com/-Audi-Silicone-key-cover-_b_5.html" rel="nofollow">click here</a> and visit our siteJohnalvarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08053326631943953490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-68668507363031161452013-05-13T03:03:29.281-04:002013-05-13T03:03:29.281-04:00A big part of Japan's current stagnation is it...A big part of Japan's current stagnation is its negative working age population growth (and negative population over all).<br /><a href="http://www.mysummitt.com" rel="nofollow"> Traveling </a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03796232327249829655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-91176469903474851072013-05-02T03:38:38.057-04:002013-05-02T03:38:38.057-04:00Lol holy shit
You keynesian fascists can't st...Lol holy shit<br /><br />You keynesian fascists can't stop sucking that corporate cock can't you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-27605298544201818812013-04-30T15:17:07.131-04:002013-04-30T15:17:07.131-04:00I wish all the Anonymous's would jut put a nam...I wish all the Anonymous's would jut put a name down! That would make following this a lot easier. All you have to do is chose "Name/URL" from the pull down "Comment as:" box, and then put any old URL in there that you want (e.g. www.google.com).Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-21470847310094489522013-04-29T12:34:22.159-04:002013-04-29T12:34:22.159-04:00Urgh, this is a late response, but regarding Paul ...Urgh, this is a late response, but regarding Paul Krugman and Richard Koo...<br /><br />They *have* engaged each other in debate *LONG* before the 2011 exchange over QE2.<br /><br />Perhaps it doesn't quite count because it predates the start of Krugman's blog in 2005. I don't know when exactly or where exactly were you when you first heard of Koo, or whether you have read any books by him written in Japanese or if you have only read his 2008 book, <i>The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession</i>, but Krugman and Koo debated each other back in October 1999. The debate was transcribed and published in the November 1999 issue of the Japanese outlet <i>Bungei Shunju</i>.<br /><br />If you've heard of that November 1999 piece from Koo's <i>The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession</i>, you should be aware that Koo provides a summary of what happened (naturally, from his side of the story, but he does have points).<br /><br />While I don't agree with Koo that monetary policy is totally useless even in a debt-deflation-type contraction, I do side with Koo in that Krugman's advocacy of a 200 to 300% rate of inflation done by the Bank of Japan wouldn't work, and that currency devaluation/exchange-rate devaluation was not the way to go. According to Koo, Krugman was at the time, was also unaware that Lawrence Summers, working as a civil servant in the Clinton Administration, angrily made it clear that Washington, D. C. had not been consulted nor had it approved of Tokyo's attempt at currency devaluation/exchange-rate devaluation earlier in June 1999.<br /><br />When I met Richard Koo at the April 2013 INET conference in Hong Kong, I brought along both of his economics books that were written (or translated to, I forget which happened exactly) in English: <i>Balance Sheet Recession: Japan's Struggle with Uncharted Economics and Its Global Implications</i> (2003) and <i>The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Japan's Great Recession</i> (2008).<br /><br />I asked him if he would be willing to sign both copies, and he gladly obliged. In my conversation with him, Koo mentioned his 1999 discussion with Krugman, which he cited in both books.<br /><br />He said that he felt that it had "taken [me] ten years to get the message across [to Krugman]", and now "[Krugman] sounds just like me!" Koo even said (unless my memory is playing tricks on me) that "[Krugman] apologised to the Japanese people for proposing the wrong policy, and that was a very brave thing for him to do!"<br /><br />To which I responded, "Hey, at least he changed!"<br /><br />And Koo said, with a smile, "Yes, and I'll have to give him credit for that."<br /><br />So I'd say that it is worth including Richard Koo as part of this amusing "episode guide" to "Krugtron", Noah Smith! XDBlue Aurorahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02044362251868221897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-81741947357340614512013-04-29T10:15:39.467-04:002013-04-29T10:15:39.467-04:00Sweden is not in the Euro. Spain, portugal are...Sweden is not in the Euro. Spain, portugal are...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-22388822848898173332013-04-29T07:06:08.660-04:002013-04-29T07:06:08.660-04:00He certainly has been too modest to talk about how...He certainly has been too modest to talk about how spectacularly wrong he was with this prediction in 1998 - I don't understand how he could be so wrong if he was using models and citing an econ law though, right?<br /><br />“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other!” wrote Krugman. “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-80873890112656592902013-04-29T07:01:57.996-04:002013-04-29T07:01:57.996-04:001998 Krugman using his modeling for his amazing pr...1998 Krugman using his modeling for his amazing prediction:<br /><br />“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other!” wrote Krugman. “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”<br /><br />Read more: http://digitaljournal.com/article/346996#ixzz2RqfCMz00<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-5335267591654947392013-04-29T06:58:53.872-04:002013-04-29T06:58:53.872-04:00I personally always love the Krugman fans who clai...I personally always love the Krugman fans who claim he consistently gets his predictions right who ignore Krugman's actual predictions. Here is one hilarious one:<br /><br />http://digitaljournal.com/article/346996<br /><br />“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other!” wrote Krugman. “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-58711059277366673242013-04-29T01:19:43.383-04:002013-04-29T01:19:43.383-04:00Well, the things you say are mostly true (American...Well, the things you say are mostly true (American elementary school education is great, water quality is actually worse than America, and air quality is so-so due to China, but I don't want to quibble), but also consider some countervailing facts:<br /><br />* Women in Japan suffer far worse discrimination than American women, both in and out of the workplace.<br /><br />* Japanese people have much, much, MUCH less living space per person than Americans.<br /><br />* There is no real mental health care in Japan.<br /><br />* Japan has a suicide rate over 4x that of the U.S.<br /><br />* Most Japanese fathers are unable to be with their wives or children more than one day a week, due to the demands of company socializing.<br /><br />* Over half of young Japanese people are trapped in grubby dead-end jobs:<br />http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/05/the-slacker-trap/309285/<br /><br />* Japanese people with good jobs have low job mobility, low autonomy, and little opportunity to be rewarded for excellence.<br /><br />* Japanese people are responsible for 30% of their health care payments, with little in the way of a secondary insurance market.<br /><br />* Most local businesses must pay protection money to the local branch of the yakuza.<br /><br />* Legal rights are far inferior to those in the U.S., torture by police is essentially allowed, and there is a high rate of false convictions.<br /><br /><br />All in all, having lived in both countries and read on the topic extensively, I would not say that quality of life in Japan is unambiguously better than in America; in fact, they both have strong and weak points, and it depends on who you are. Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-76864963875489995762013-04-29T00:47:42.197-04:002013-04-29T00:47:42.197-04:00interesting analysis. it leads one to wonder if kr...interesting analysis. it leads one to wonder if krugman's will prove less successful if and when the US recovers.<br /><br />One note about comparing the US's economic conditions with Japan: as dire as it has been in Japan since the early 90s, life is much better there than in the US. Japan's total homelessness is less than that of San Francisco. Everybody has access to high quality health care. Education through high school far surpasses the states'. Violence is rare. Food and air and water quality are the best in the world. In addition, there are numerous other quality-of-life metrics where Japan surpasses the US.<br /><br />The US is great if you are rich, but any country is great if you are rich. Life in Japan is great for everybody.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43575544755308256062013-04-28T10:49:11.229-04:002013-04-28T10:49:11.229-04:00Roger, I agree that cutting taxes and a substantia...Roger, I agree that cutting taxes and a substantial increase in infrastructure and investment would greatly help in propelling us out of this current economic malaise, but the only thing I think would be truly difficult to do once the recovery is in full swing is to raise taxes back to a level where the government has sufficient revenue. There would be, I believe, a strong consensus to cut spending among both Democrats and Republicans, but raising taxes would still be near impossible. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-16923424061102646472013-04-28T09:21:20.514-04:002013-04-28T09:21:20.514-04:00Funnily enough, Nathanael, I first heard that theo...Funnily enough, Nathanael, I first heard that theory from John Huizenga, my conservative Chicago macro instructor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-82764603540139032962013-04-27T17:43:31.002-04:002013-04-27T17:43:31.002-04:00I'll add this too: Even if Paulson and his res...I'll add this too: Even if Paulson and his research team, such as it was, came to a very different conclusion from Krugman about the probability of the stimuli provoking a strong recovery and us blowing through the ZLB, the market as a whole didn't.<br /><br />The markets, with their often claimed vaunted efficiency and wisdom, always agreed with Krugman that inflation was very unlikely, otherwise they would never have been always buying 5 year bonds for less than 1%, 10 year bonds for less than 2%, and 30 year bonds for less than 3%. You'd have to be a complete idiot to lock in to those historically low rates if you thought in a year or two inflation was going to take off. Even if you thought it might take 5 years for the inflation take-off, you'd never lock in to 10 year bonds at 2%. Even if you thought it would take 10 years or 20 years for this inflation take-off to happen, then you'd still never be buying bonds that locked you in to just 3% for 30 years. So, the market clearly thought very little chance of an inflation take-off for at least the next generation!<br /><br />So, even if Paulson did have a very different analysis than Krugman about the odds of blowing through the ZLB, he was an exception. The market as a whole, right from the beginning, and non-stop for the last 5 years, always agreed with Krugman.<br /><br />They don't mess with the Krugtron.Richard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-61251582142306096582013-04-27T13:25:31.175-04:002013-04-27T13:25:31.175-04:00Not predictions but descriptions, what banks do, d...Not predictions but descriptions, what banks do, do they create money or intermediate. Bankers were unanimous: Krugman has no idea what he is talking about.<br /><br />Some intro here:<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6khrQypEOi8&feature=player_embedded#!<br /><br />For PK's wrpong predictions go no further back than 2004 - he claimed Bush's deficits will make rates skyrocket, now he know it is technically impossible unless the Fed allows it.PeterPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02032621777697914182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-36929167575394205162013-04-26T21:30:45.893-04:002013-04-26T21:30:45.893-04:00I'll add this too: Even if Paulson and his res...I'll add this too: Even if Paulson and his research team, such as it was, came to a very different conclusion from Krugman about the probability of the stimuli provoking a strong recovery and us blowing through the ZLB, the market as a whole didn't.<br /><br />The markets, with their often claimed vaunted efficiency and wisdom, always agreed with Krugman that inflation was very unlikely, otherwise they would never have been always buying 5 year bonds for less than 1%, 10 year bonds for less than 2%, and 30 year bonds for less than 3%. You'd have to be a complete idiot to lock in to those historically low rates if you thought in a year or two inflation was going to take off.<br /><br />So, even if Paulson did have a very different analysis than Krugman about the odds of blowing through the ZLB, he was an exception. The market as a whole, right from the beginning, and non-stop for the last 5 years, always agreed with Krugman.<br /><br />They don't mess with the Krugtron.Richard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-37817294963773819132013-04-26T20:22:56.052-04:002013-04-26T20:22:56.052-04:00Not predictions but descriptions, how banks work, ...Not predictions but descriptions, how banks work, what they do. Bankers said: Keen is right, that is what we do.PeterPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02032621777697914182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-23605347923642911872013-04-26T18:11:48.663-04:002013-04-26T18:11:48.663-04:00One point which is almost always missed is the thi...One point which is almost always missed is the third player (together with the Treasury and the Fed) - the fractional rezerve banking system.<br />Monetary policy does not work because the Fed provides liquidity to banks which absorb the injected money because they have to increase rezerves, and people and companies do not see this money at all - no demand is created.<br />While the fiscal policy always works because government's expenditures directly create revenues for companies and salaries/transfers for people.<br />Indeed if we do not have this third player - the fractional rezerve banking system - there would be no difference between fiscal and monetary policies. The Fed would have only one way to fly the helicopter - purchase of the government securities directly from the Treasury. And this is the right way.John Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00782490268202263473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-46770564096356002302013-04-26T17:51:01.052-04:002013-04-26T17:51:01.052-04:00I second this. Best sci-fi book of the last 5 year...I second this. Best sci-fi book of the last 5 years.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-49950149282829268592013-04-26T17:35:33.243-04:002013-04-26T17:35:33.243-04:00If you like 80's pop references, you must read...If you like 80's pop references, you must read: "Ready Player One" by Ernest Cline.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-35755728965091658452013-04-26T16:12:18.064-04:002013-04-26T16:12:18.064-04:00"credibly raise the inflation target" is..."credibly raise the inflation target" is PK's recommendation. (There are debates about whether that's possible and PK acknowledges it sounds easier than it is). If it won't happen, then fiscal policy. And there's nothing "crude" about this position, it's straight out of IS-LM (with expectations added in).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-5505971005326464792013-04-26T14:30:49.814-04:002013-04-26T14:30:49.814-04:00The major difference between those two seems to be...The major difference between those two seems to be that Koo doesn't like any form of QE. Since the US and Japan have ramped up significantly QE soon there'll be a winner (all of us because we will learn greatly from this experiment and schools of thought will rise and fall because of it)Dimitarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-78572072743616332882013-04-26T14:29:15.008-04:002013-04-26T14:29:15.008-04:00No, the point is that it's no use using as an ...No, the point is that it's no use using as an explanation something that itself isn't explained.<br />Krugman is right on the US because he was right on Japan, doesn't help if you don't know why he was right on Japan.<br /><br />What if he used IS/LM to get Japan right? in that case Noah's post could have been far shorter and just said what Krugman himself has said by way of explanation.<br /><br />Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15136541075745913165noreply@blogger.com