tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post2761352109587921846..comments2024-03-18T22:32:52.802-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: The real most important chart of 2013?Noah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-28220789730022986942013-12-19T00:23:28.507-05:002013-12-19T00:23:28.507-05:00The worst part is, Japan would probably win a shoo...The worst part is, Japan would probably win a shooting match. That would trigger a massive military build-up in China. Maybe that's the whole idea?Luke Leahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11290760894780619646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-86479875376649867182013-12-17T18:38:04.130-05:002013-12-17T18:38:04.130-05:00Most new Great Powers "announce" their a...Most new Great Powers "announce" their arrival with a decisive military victory...For Japan it was the victory over China in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894. <br /><br />I think the Russo-Japanese War of 1904/05 was equally or perhaps more important than the Sino-Japanese War. The question is whether one proves oneself a great power" by beating up a non-great power, or by beating up another great power. I'd argue the latter is more consequential. I also remember at the war museum at Yasukuni there was a great amount of emphasis placed on the R-J war.A.K. Anselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14849329951808383265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-34421952055029673542013-12-17T12:53:18.710-05:002013-12-17T12:53:18.710-05:00solar can make hydrogen during peak sun hours to s...<i>solar can make hydrogen during peak sun hours to store the excess power, and hydrogen is a clean fuel.</i><br /><br />Hydrogen is difficult to handle. If there was excess electrical power in the system it would probably be better spent converting bio-mass to diesel since diesel has high energy density, is easy to handle, can go through existing distribution infrastructure and can be used by existing engines. Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-70572006325017583712013-12-17T08:53:09.817-05:002013-12-17T08:53:09.817-05:00If China starts a shooting war over some tiny unin...If China starts a shooting war over some tiny uninhabited islands, then they are the bad guys in that scenario. It's that simple.waltnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-55037716738467019832013-12-17T00:59:20.520-05:002013-12-17T00:59:20.520-05:00And Japan has also had its fair share of disputes ...And Japan has also had its fair share of disputes over islands with China and South Korea (i.e. Senkakus and Dokdo). Japan's ADIZ was drawn by the Americans and EXTENDED TWICE without consulting the Chinese. Why should the Chinese consult the Japanese or even the Americans? Let's not pretend that the Chinese ADIZ is the trigger event here. More than a year ago, the Japanese government broke its promise with China to end the Senkaku dispute peacefully by unilaterally agreeing to "purchase" and "nationalize" the Senkaku islands from an alleged 'private' owner. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-87298397584932202332013-12-16T16:28:16.164-05:002013-12-16T16:28:16.164-05:00Why in your understanging/premise it is always Chi...<i>Why in your understanging/premise it is always China who is playing the “evil” role?</i><br /><br />China has had border disputes with most of its neighbors including North Korea. It has gotten into shooting wars with Russia, India and Vietnam over borders. It has threatened repeatedly to invade Taiwan and denies Taiwan's right of self-determination. Given that history, it is pretty reasonable to suggest that the problem is China's imperial ambitions. Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-34842095874692601662013-12-16T15:23:26.942-05:002013-12-16T15:23:26.942-05:00The panels at work can charge your electric car, a...The panels at work can charge your electric car, and computer driven cars coordinated with supercomputers changes everything. Cars from the fleet can park in front of your house, hook up to a plug ran to the street, and charge from your panels.Richard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-66532337407081387462013-12-16T11:56:15.404-05:002013-12-16T11:56:15.404-05:00Makes most sense to charge electric cars overnight...Makes most sense to charge electric cars overnight in your driveway, precisely the time solar is not available. Works for wind power though.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260399813910470001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-89465838990191389452013-12-16T00:46:27.490-05:002013-12-16T00:46:27.490-05:00Why in your understanging/premise it is always Chi...Why in your understanging/premise it is always China who is playing the “evil” role? Does US or Japan have the justice on their hands automatically on any issue?<br /><br />China is not a democracy in "western"(I hate the west-east thing, it is an old aged, cold war thinking) countries, for sure. But it's no longer a "communist country" anymore,and this does not mean all its actions are wrongful, and even evil, it does not mean people in China can be brainwashed like a dumb by a small group of commies. There are way a lot of complexity here between those conflicts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-34615771819094751142013-12-15T22:42:24.290-05:002013-12-15T22:42:24.290-05:00Win.Win.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-8538990888529991852013-12-15T19:18:18.247-05:002013-12-15T19:18:18.247-05:00Solar doesn't have to do everything to really ...Solar doesn't have to do everything to really change the world. In my home state of Arizona, already for many homes with the tax spiffs these systems can cut your utility bill by 90 to over 100 percent, and pay for themselves in less than seven years. And as far as storage, what about in the battery of your electric car, plummeting oil usage. And most of the world is very poor and living in sunny places like Africa, India, and the Middle East. Cheap mass produced panels providing all the power you need during the day would be a game changer, and there's plenty of cheap labor there to install them. Here, the robots may be the cheap labor with solar providing plenty of power for them to work.<br /><br />And there's work on integrating the solar panels into roofing materials, making the install vastly cheaper, put up when the home is built. And generally, even without cheap storage, having free power during the day in the sunny part of the world, at least, would be profound. But anyway, there are promising ideas for inexpensive storage that don't involve just batteries. One of the many examples is solar can make hydrogen during peak sun hours to store the excess power, and hydrogen is a clean fuel.Richard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-67275116073793588232013-12-15T16:52:04.492-05:002013-12-15T16:52:04.492-05:00You and Calvin
http://10000birds.com/one-of-the-o...You and Calvin<br /><br />http://10000birds.com/one-of-the-old-gods.htmAbsalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-89139060362100582872013-12-15T16:05:47.803-05:002013-12-15T16:05:47.803-05:00Absalon, don't you know I'm a post human d...Absalon, don't you know I'm a post human demigod? All of you humans are my beloved children.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-14460439047448631952013-12-15T14:37:54.128-05:002013-12-15T14:37:54.128-05:00scentofviolents - I agree. I think the goal shoul...scentofviolents - I agree. I think the goal should be reliable power delivered to the end user at an all found cost of $0.10 per kilowatt hour. That goal is probably not achievable.Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-73521062214907982962013-12-15T14:28:15.771-05:002013-12-15T14:28:15.771-05:00That 'per installed kilowatt' is the joker...That 'per installed kilowatt' is the joker in the deck; so-called alternative energy is amazingly labor-intensive. But more to the point, cost for solar has not fallen exponentially for the good and simple reason that the costs of its various components have not fallen exponentially. Stored power is the big kicker, imho. Come back when you have a battery that can store hundreds or thousands of megajoules for a few pennies per kWh. I won't go into the physics of the situation, but the limitations are pretty fundamental.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-44593291283489809102013-12-15T14:24:36.961-05:002013-12-15T14:24:36.961-05:00It is pretty hard to underestimate human folly. F...It is pretty hard to underestimate human folly. From the U.S. Navy strategic perspective I would expect the U.S. to deploy its Attack Submarines to destroy the Chinese surface navy, and deploy Air Force bombers (the U.S. sent B-52s into the zone and that was no accident) and U.S. Navy Air carriers might be kept behind Guam and deployed through refueling and the use the unsinkable aircraft carrier of Okinawa as a their base. Then we will see if the Chinese escalate with nuclear strikes on Okinawa and Guam. Then things would get interesting.rickstersherpa@msn.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14489905720399087036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-13062514239175195442013-12-15T13:57:31.970-05:002013-12-15T13:57:31.970-05:00Noah - for the record, I am old enough to be your ...Noah - for the record, I am old enough to be your father. <br /><br />I did not intend to suggest direct conflict between the United States and China in any of my scenarios. I had in mind scenarios where the US airlifts munitions to the Japanese and the Japanese use the munitions to destroy Chinese airplanes and ships engaged in aggressive moves towards Japanese assets. <br /><br />If US forces did engage it would probably be attack submarines sinking Chinese naval vessels. One of the things the Chinese need to worry about is how many U.S. attack submarines are in the South China Sea and how good are they? The Chinese really have no way of knowing the answer to either question. I expect that right now there is an American attack submarine a few kilometers behind and a few hundred meters below that aircraft carrier the Chinese are so proud of. :-)<br /><br />Daniel - it sure seems like the Chinese are doing their best to drive all of their neighbors into an alliance against the Chinese to contain Chinese imperial ambitions. Right now the Chinese should be a lot more concerned about the pending implosion of the North Korean regime than about a few islands in the South China Sea.Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-78846211663210479172013-12-15T11:59:03.018-05:002013-12-15T11:59:03.018-05:00Slightly off topic, but I'm trying to learn mo...Slightly off topic, but I'm trying to learn more about international relations and what-not. Can anyone recommend a good blog that focuses on that topic? Also maybe a good textbook to get me started?Dan Snoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-86914258737847347042013-12-15T10:43:55.237-05:002013-12-15T10:43:55.237-05:00What will happen to all the new Apple products?What will happen to all the new Apple products?JRHullshttp://somewhatlogically.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-1585464573979820822013-12-15T10:24:49.357-05:002013-12-15T10:24:49.357-05:00It's a test. They're trying to see how str...It's a test. They're trying to see how strong the US east asian alliance really is. I say this because Korea is involved as well. I suspect the next few decades will be more "toe in the water" approaches to strategy with it's neighbors. The only way they the gain strategic upper-hand is with a fractured alliance.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00693994820049055213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-74850731437524625862013-12-15T10:00:37.866-05:002013-12-15T10:00:37.866-05:00What about the potential disruption of global supp...What about the potential disruption of global supply chains for manufactured products? This seems to me where the real powder keg lies. Doc at the Radar Stationnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-58612218174619526262013-12-15T08:21:35.159-05:002013-12-15T08:21:35.159-05:00More than likely China is trying to claim rights t...More than likely China is trying to claim rights to ocean resources and it is a sea grab. China could not afford to go to war with any reasonable power and risk heavy toll on the infrastructure. It will break up China.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-63044065249869131112013-12-15T06:31:39.768-05:002013-12-15T06:31:39.768-05:00How would they accomplish that Noah? The Americans...How would they accomplish that Noah? The Americans would just park a dozen attack submarines in the Indian ocean and no more oil flows to China. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-40608101217789023352013-12-15T01:13:23.566-05:002013-12-15T01:13:23.566-05:00Absalon, I smiled a rueful smile when I noticed th...Absalon, I smiled a rueful smile when I noticed that you left out all the possibilities where China simply defeats U.S. forces.<br /><br />Oh, my child, you sleep the sleep of pleasant dreams... :-)Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-61117568689353411172013-12-15T01:12:17.009-05:002013-12-15T01:12:17.009-05:00i think Brett is right.i think Brett is right.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.com