tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post3124165628026120952..comments2024-03-18T22:32:52.802-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Thursday Roundup (4/19/2012)Noah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-3941911174800301592012-08-01T02:13:23.941-04:002012-08-01T02:13:23.941-04:00GREAT recipe! We have started out creating my pers...GREAT recipe! We have started out creating my personal washing soap simply not too long ago * along with find it irresistible : but don't have a pretreatment spray -- They are Simple elements that i'm gonna offer mtss is a try out!!! Many thanks for posting the idea!http://www.vipdiablo3.com/http://www.vipdiablo3.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-75765132034805460982012-04-22T20:53:54.878-04:002012-04-22T20:53:54.878-04:00Really? I thought his data points about military s...Really? I thought his data points about military spending and U.S. percent of world GDP were eye-opening, given how often those talking points are trotted out by opponents of his thesis.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-82232477076701736522012-04-22T18:18:09.862-04:002012-04-22T18:18:09.862-04:00What did you find of interest in the interview to ...What did you find of interest in the interview to Ed Luce? Luce does not say anything at all...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-14283131120143608442012-04-21T06:17:37.452-04:002012-04-21T06:17:37.452-04:00Wait a second. The physicist does not say that &qu...Wait a second. The physicist does not say that "exponential economic growth can't go on forever", he says that "economic growth can't go on forever". That's a big difference, and it annoyed me when I read his arrogant conversation. I think many economists, including myself, see world GDP has having a finite upper bound. That does not mean that growth cannot go on forever. I can never imagine a situation in which all human creativity is preempted. <br /><br />So I believe Charles H. Duell, the Commissioner of US patent office in 1899, was wrong when he said "everything that can be invented has been invented", and I believe that every future commissioner of the office will be wrong when stating the same thing. (disclosure: I'm not sure if Charles H. Duell actually said that, but at least, that's how the story goes)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-86422797124575713722012-04-21T00:22:32.459-04:002012-04-21T00:22:32.459-04:00I agree with you about the problems with the ARRA....I agree with you about the problems with the ARRA. However, because of the "balance sheet recession" effect, I thought the stimulus might help households pay down their debts faster, so I didn't oppose it.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-27807101131471120252012-04-20T18:20:20.299-04:002012-04-20T18:20:20.299-04:00Michael Pettis has written a bit on this subject: ...Michael Pettis has written a bit on this subject: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/author/mpettis3/<br /><br />I was wondering if your views are in agreement with his. He seems to be pretty bearish on China, despite teaching there. I look forward to your hypothetical post.<br /><br />*Above should say "What are" rather than What's". Yey for verb conjugation*FeartheTreehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12598942090863120829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-40486487619383436972012-04-20T17:06:09.234-04:002012-04-20T17:06:09.234-04:00"John Taylor discusses a paper analyzing the ..."John Taylor discusses a paper analyzing the impact of fiscal stimulus using several different New Keynesian DSGE models. The paper finds that multipliers are substantial if stimulus is A) composed mainly of government expenditures, and B) temporary rather than permanent. In other words, if stimulus is exactly what Keynesians say it ought to be!"<br /><br />Yes, but for those of us who both (i) opposed the stimulus and (ii) don't think Obama is a socialist, one of the main reasons for this opposition was the fact that the stimulus package was (a) light on government expenditures and high on transfer payments, and (b) likely to become a permanent increase in spending.<br /><br />Of course, now that I think of it, I could be the only person who fits into groups (i) and (ii).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-12084073473338800832012-04-20T16:56:02.084-04:002012-04-20T16:56:02.084-04:00That deserves its own post!That deserves its own post!Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-30843937070325317952012-04-20T12:51:59.694-04:002012-04-20T12:51:59.694-04:00Hey Noah,
What's your feelings on Chinese mun...Hey Noah,<br /><br />What's your feelings on Chinese municipal debt levels and their ratio of consumption as a percent of GDP? How do you think that they'll circumvent these issues in the absence of a sharp uptick in global export demand?FeartheTreehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12598942090863120829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-4270530533473560082012-04-20T11:38:52.524-04:002012-04-20T11:38:52.524-04:00What I don't love Noah is how you always ignor...<i>What I don't love Noah is how you always ignore my comments.</i><br /><br />Hey, I can't respond to every comment, I've got stuff to do! If I think I have something interesting or useful to add, I add it...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-89554830873926824552012-04-20T11:37:31.748-04:002012-04-20T11:37:31.748-04:00"What happened to the Post Keynesians?"
..."What happened to the Post Keynesians?"<br /><br />Lost in the mail. (*rim-shot* *crickets*))<br />Also, too, why is Captain Hammer holding a hog-leg? I am unbelievably tired right now. I think my free-associating is approaching schizophrenia levels.MrToadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-21442719088298116382012-04-20T11:34:22.735-04:002012-04-20T11:34:22.735-04:00I for one like the wonkish recent turn. Though I d...I for one like the wonkish recent turn. Though I don't have the academic background I've come to really love the wonkish stuff. What I don't love Noah is how you always ignore my comments. <br /><br /> That's the one reason you got to love Scott with all my reservationis about him you don't feel like your wasting your time writing a comment over at his place. <br /><br /> I'm fascinated about this model stuff. Will we fianlly move beyond DSGE? Judging by recent history it seems that macro revolutions occur about once every 40 years or so-in the 30s we had Keynes and Hick;s IS-LM reading of him, in the 70s we had Lucas of course. <br /><br /> While I hope to see some new model wehter it's "multiple equilibria" or "disequilibrium" what's clear is that establishment macro at least failed one of your two tests-prediction-and largely the other part too reading Lucas' jibes against stimulus-policy guidance. <br /><br /> That one link about how we can't keep growing like we've been growing was depressing. See I think some people want us to slow down and sniff the flowers. I'm not one of those people. I really actually love turbo 20th century style capitalism and want to proloing it as far as possible-Keynes I think and also Minsky have some ideas about that.Mike Saxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01360689916550576484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-24891899976969111852012-04-20T09:08:46.917-04:002012-04-20T09:08:46.917-04:00Re: physics of growth. Keynes got it mostly corr...Re: physics of growth. Keynes got it mostly correct yet again, but he should have put it that rather than being dead, "in the long run we'll all be cooked."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-16635633907456928912012-04-20T08:02:47.750-04:002012-04-20T08:02:47.750-04:00Due to speed of light constraints there is a theor...Due to speed of light constraints there is a theoretical limit on commas.mattskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07936264188400397646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-3715629272850206442012-04-20T00:50:43.577-04:002012-04-20T00:50:43.577-04:00Whoops, misplaced apostrophe: decades', not ...Whoops, misplaced apostrophe: decades', not decade's.<br /><br />(Readers will note I have ample stocks of commas and can obtain as many as desired. The internet rumor of a shortage of commas and other punctuation marks is false. Use them wherever they aid the reader's comprehension. You won't run out.)Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-20577702690320714312012-04-20T00:09:48.916-04:002012-04-20T00:09:48.916-04:00Um, no.
Say we're five orders of magnitude aw...Um, no.<br /><br />Say we're five orders of magnitude away from what's economically feasible. At 18 months per doubling, it takes less than 26 years to hit the limit. Seven orders of magnitude, you say? 35 years.<br /><br />These gains have been happening in the past, and are incorporated in the trend rate of energy consumption. This adds nothing at all to growth, and may cripple it in three decade's time.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-8268895942363185812012-04-19T23:43:39.398-04:002012-04-19T23:43:39.398-04:00"there's always the matrix; we get there,..."there's always the matrix; we get there, and there's basically no limit to what we can have."<br /><br />Unfortunately, there is still a limit. Due to speed-of-light constraints there's a realistic limit to how fast we can assimilate information, and therefore how quickly we can consume utility.<br /><br />The size of the economy is measured in terms of final consumption. Once households can obtain no increment in utility, growth has stopped, no matter how much more activity of various sorts there may be.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-9593904843212683482012-04-19T22:07:00.298-04:002012-04-19T22:07:00.298-04:00"an alliance between Keynesians, market monet..."an alliance between Keynesians, market monetarists, and New Keynesians"<br /><br />What happened to the Post Keynesians?Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14943136764424893492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-31090196529045377302012-04-19T17:00:37.915-04:002012-04-19T17:00:37.915-04:00#12: troll alert!#12: troll alert!rosebriarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02229537505859471832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-74464391206394529382012-04-19T16:22:07.279-04:002012-04-19T16:22:07.279-04:00http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20118040-54/a-mo...http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20118040-54/a-moores-law-for-computers-and-energy-efficiency/<br /><br />Something the physics guy doesn't consider (but the economist partially does but doesn't know the science). To the extent that economic growth is driven by gains in this arena we can add a lot more years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-22967733642145767252012-04-19T14:53:07.187-04:002012-04-19T14:53:07.187-04:00Are you and he in fact related?Are you and he in fact related?Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-67807458629348937772012-04-19T14:28:57.432-04:002012-04-19T14:28:57.432-04:00Wow two different Waldman(n)s in the same post (an...Wow two different Waldman(n)s in the same post (and both correctly spelled which is rare). I'm not sure you have the same reaction, but I am struck whenever I leaen of a relative who has the same last name (ok I can guess).<br /><br />On content however, the Waldman(n)s don't see eye to eye. Only so long as fiscal policy is absolutely determined can I treat market monatarists as allies. The point is that if the choice is between bad or horrible fiscal policy, I think it is necessary to fight very hard for bad fiscal policy.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14455788499385673507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-14558475399908560192012-04-19T14:05:17.850-04:002012-04-19T14:05:17.850-04:00What? Heresy...What? Heresy...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-23030212283865529662012-04-19T13:52:31.187-04:002012-04-19T13:52:31.187-04:00far more interested in what the heck were you thin...far more interested in what the heck were you thinking with a picture of Nathan Fillion up there. eew.dwbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-12469536196941742252012-04-19T13:39:30.200-04:002012-04-19T13:39:30.200-04:00With regard to exponential economic growth, first,...With regard to exponential economic growth, first, there's always the matrix; we get there, and there's basically no limit to what we can have. But also, here's a good quote from the great growth economist Paul Romer:<br /><br />Now, what do I mean when I say growth can continue? I don't mean growth in the number of people. I don't even mean growth in the number of physical objects, because you clearly can't get exponential growth in the amount of mass that each person controls. We've got the same mass here on Earth that we had 100,000 years ago and we're never going to get any more of it. What I mean is growth in value, and the way you create value is by taking that fixed quantity of mass and rearranging it from a form that isn't worth very much into a form that's worth much more. A canonical example is turning sand on the beach into semiconductors.<br /><br />At: http://reason.com/archives/2001/12/01/post-scarcity-prophet/singlepageRichard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.com