tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post3658141321753875278..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: The Axis is backNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-84169714430061577452014-09-09T23:40:57.099-04:002014-09-09T23:40:57.099-04:00Maybe Noah is being careless in categorizing China...Maybe Noah is being careless in categorizing China as an enemy, but one need only read the popular press to understand that the U.S. has for quite some time been making strategic military alliances with nations throughout Asia, all with an eye toward the impact those alliances will have on the behavior of China. Noah even goes so far as to say that fighting a war with either Russia or China would be a monumentally bad idea. However, it does seem as if the U.S and China have competing interests; if they didn't, the U.S wouldn't be putting in military bases in Australia or conducting joint military operations with countries like Indonesia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-25127846751274457142014-09-04T10:51:52.358-04:002014-09-04T10:51:52.358-04:00Well said Anonymous (11.27AM). This is worse than ...Well said Anonymous (11.27AM). This is worse than dinosaur s***. Why this hate-mongering vis-a-vis China/Russia is not clear. Please stick to your macroeconomics blogs, which are lot more informative than your geo-political DS. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-33137400806673926602014-09-04T08:49:29.998-04:002014-09-04T08:49:29.998-04:00Damn straight shah8!Damn straight shah8!weareastrangemonkeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07725580843974605480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-68936799188563103102014-09-03T18:41:02.649-04:002014-09-03T18:41:02.649-04:00that book sucks, read George Friedman's Next 1...that book sucks, read George Friedman's Next 100 YearsUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10088414231623006575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-24792454203707464122014-09-03T12:19:43.304-04:002014-09-03T12:19:43.304-04:00I applaud you, MDZX. Excellent analysis.
Stabili...I applaud you, MDZX. Excellent analysis. <br /><br />Stabilizing borders? Really? That's really what matters to an economist? That determines who's a "good guy?" Borders are a subjective thing...if they were to be viewed in time series over even just the span of 100 years, they fluctuate like market prices. And in doing so convey information, just as prices do, about the relative supply/demand of territory, and military productivity of the border-shifters, etc. <br /><br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-55337872855740953742014-09-03T11:27:31.523-04:002014-09-03T11:27:31.523-04:00In the beginning of this post, you admit that this...In the beginning of this post, you admit that this is a highly speculative text. And this got me wondering, why is it that rigorous thinkers like yourself seem to throw all restraint out the window when talking about geopolitics. I understand that we do not all want to be rigorous all the time, but considering that you have a large and perhaps influential audience, this should be the kind of subject where you'd refrain from admitted BS. <br />You'd never make such categorical affirmations about the business cycle. And if you think that macroeconomics is in bad shape as a theory, then international relations theory (at least the sort of "realist" analysis you seem to be doing here) is close to alchemy. <br />Why would you cast as an almost certain enemy a country with almost twenty percent of the world's population and the second largest trading partner to your country? China has conducted several reforms and hasn't fought a war in a very long time. Doesn't this count as evidence that there could be a different outcome? Wouldn't you demand much more solid theory and evidence if this was economics?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-70174372996935565722014-09-03T10:21:32.305-04:002014-09-03T10:21:32.305-04:00Also, the energy industry is a great opportunity t...Also, the energy industry is a great opportunity to expand the role of state-owned enterprises in the economy at a time when SOE's are struggling to maintain their relevance in other areas of the economy. SOE's are an incredibly important tool re: patronage in the Chinese political system.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-52569207700439244162014-09-03T10:17:40.122-04:002014-09-03T10:17:40.122-04:00China is not going for a natural resource extracti...China is not going for a natural resource extraction based economy, but that doesn't mean that natural resources aren't an important component of their foreign policy. Global dependence on China for resources such as rare earth minerals (in addition to their general importance in global trade) give the rest of the world an incentive to keep China stable (see: Maidan). Chinese reliance on energy imports represents a major weakness in potential worst-case geopolitical scenarios, and gaining access to the natural gas reserves in the South/East China Sea would help close this gap. <br /><br />Still, the natural resources argument is obviously more debatable in the Chinese case compared to the Russian. I once had a debate with an IR professor over whether China's South/East China Sea posturing was actually about the resources at stake (my position), or a ploy to rouse nationalist sentiment to strengthen the political position of the army during a period of political transition (his position).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-85079542131155888722014-09-02T22:46:31.891-04:002014-09-02T22:46:31.891-04:00Noah, have you ever read John Mearsheimer's Th...Noah, have you ever read John Mearsheimer's <i>The Tragedy of Great Power Politics</i>? If not I highly recommend it and think it's relevant to this post.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-19855834406960105932014-09-02T21:37:50.601-04:002014-09-02T21:37:50.601-04:00Russia may be going for a natural resource extract...Russia may be going for a natural resource extraction based economy but China certainly doesn't seem to be. I think they're more worried about a major sea power (aka the US) being able to cut most of their trade off almost at a whim. That would actually imply somewhat aggressive military build up and maybe taking a few strategic points, but it's mostly a defensive posture meant to ensure Chinese policy independence.Chris Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-47225487158655044162014-09-02T13:09:44.832-04:002014-09-02T13:09:44.832-04:00You know that's beneath you. If that's al...You know that's beneath you. If that's all you can do, perhaps you should re-evaluate whether, maybe, just maybe, you mostly just wrote a paranoid rant with limited connection to reality, but waving WWII flags?shah8https://www.blogger.com/profile/04537529816304128000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-66141876494606764482014-09-02T02:17:33.001-04:002014-09-02T02:17:33.001-04:00Europe nor NATO are not trying to push anything. R...Europe nor NATO are not trying to push anything. Russia's neighbors are all running West because being dominated by primitive savages kept afloat but oil/gas rents for 50 years was enough to realize its a dead end. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-5245098297630871262014-09-01T22:11:06.946-04:002014-09-01T22:11:06.946-04:00Without the US entering the war, I think that Japa...Without the US entering the war, I think that Japan would have eventually been forced out China, but they may have been able to hold on to Korea and SE Asia. And I am pretty sure the Japanese could have held on to the Islands of their empire. With Japan's navy intact no other power would have been able to challenge them in the Pacific. <br /><br />Japan plus the Philippines, Taiwan, Hainan and much of Indonesia would still be still quite an empire.Bill Ellisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-12758449818374494042014-09-01T20:19:32.108-04:002014-09-01T20:19:32.108-04:00Some authors (Victor Suvorov, Mark Solonin) have a...Some authors (Victor Suvorov, Mark Solonin) have a different view about WWII on the eastern front - they attribute the early German successes as being due to a successful pre-preemptive invasion. Essentially the Soviets were preparing to conquer Europe at almost the same time and had lined up their troops at the border, leaving them very vulnerable and unprepared for defense.<br /><br /> Since the USSR was totally committed to arming since at least 1928 (Germany since 1933 and being a much smaller country in population and territory) if not earlier, it is not surprising that being the bigger country won, even thought it had a pretty bad run in the beginning.<br /><br />Soviet historians tried to mask the Soviet aggressive side by creating multiple myths that portray USSR as basically a peaceful country responding to aggression, while it was just as bent on conquest as Germany, Italy or Japan. <br /><br /><br />Dimitarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14817426354343784512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-450675356131987832014-09-01T20:10:38.198-04:002014-09-01T20:10:38.198-04:00An interesting point from Chinese history is that ...An interesting point from Chinese history is that while it was definitely an empire it hasn't been imperialist since the Han - it never tried to conquer Japan, India or South-East Asia. It did conquer Korea and Vietnam earlier and can argue that conflicts with those nations were carried over an earlier period. As far as I know the Chinese prefered having nearby lands being vassal rather than conquered.<br /><br />Now anyone with more knowledge about Chinese history can correct me and should... Dimitarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14817426354343784512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-18499124640466127112014-09-01T19:47:24.050-04:002014-09-01T19:47:24.050-04:00EU and NATO are more correctly pulled east, not pu...EU and NATO are more correctly pulled east, not pushing there. There is actually a lot of not-so low key opposition to expanding to the east. <br /><br />If Putin had devised a clever face-saving way of Europe doing nothing it would gladly take it. So I guess he is not that smart.Dimitarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14817426354343784512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-81774857071093777092014-09-01T19:33:09.515-04:002014-09-01T19:33:09.515-04:00I like that you've pointed out that a point of...I like that you've pointed out that a point of similarity between the Axis is how unsteady and unreliable the relationship in that camp is. <br /><br />A major weakness is that Russia and China kinda sucks at making allies, especially taking advantage of natural ones (countries with compatible interests, not just the same enemies for the time being).<br /><br />The Eurasion Union is already looking like a failure with Belarus and Kazahstan hinting they can leave if they want to and Russia forcing its interests on them at every term (and Ukraine before Euromaidan). From a trade perspective it is is not really a free-trade area, but rather Russian rules area - the big country often bans products from the small ones.<br /><br />China is interested in Russia only insofar it sees an opportunity to get great deals on resources and weaponry at cheap rates. They did have a war in the 60s which is like yesterday in those countries; they are not reliable alies and will not back each other - China hasn't recognized the annexation of Crimea for example.Dimitarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14817426354343784512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-65364012322962688122014-09-01T17:03:44.737-04:002014-09-01T17:03:44.737-04:00Durr hurr
Durr hurr<br /><br />Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-70896607793191359382014-09-01T14:37:01.874-04:002014-09-01T14:37:01.874-04:00Is this all about belonging to kewlkidz cliques? ...Is this all about belonging to kewlkidz cliques? Never wanted to join up and wouldn't have been invited if I ever did.<br /><br />Blog post is full of facile historical analysis fit for people who have an IQ of 95 or braindamaged or whatever the hell was up with George W. Bush when he went on about Axis of Evil.<br /><br />I'm not up for renewed Cold War. Very few people are, and we will have other problems that make the hyping irrelevant.shah8https://www.blogger.com/profile/04537529816304128000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-5510439082769147642014-09-01T13:17:46.379-04:002014-09-01T13:17:46.379-04:00Well, the people doing it did have plenty of reser...Well, the people doing it did have plenty of reservations about it, check out this clip where Robert MacNamara breaks into tears and calls himself a war criminal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDT8NdyoWfINoah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-8024714899262723602014-09-01T13:15:29.183-04:002014-09-01T13:15:29.183-04:00Japan was already starting to lose battles before ...Japan was already starting to lose battles before the U.S. entered the war. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_War#Pacific_War_campaigns<br /><br />The only reason Japan did as well as it did in China was that China was in the process of fighting a civil war...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-41748800469893248162014-09-01T12:52:05.896-04:002014-09-01T12:52:05.896-04:00Diaoyu/Senkaku is a sideshow, the real battle is f...Diaoyu/Senkaku is a sideshow, the real battle is for Taiwan.nigthedumbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13007157169911319176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-51588640343839169362014-09-01T12:49:15.322-04:002014-09-01T12:49:15.322-04:00The Ukraine scenario will be repeated in Taiwan. ...The Ukraine scenario will be repeated in Taiwan. Eventually a war must be fought between china and japan/US over Taiwan.nigthedumbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13007157169911319176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-11305042891825349222014-09-01T12:44:43.816-04:002014-09-01T12:44:43.816-04:00"Two small, powerful states (Germany and Japa..."Two small, powerful states (Germany and Japan) tried to conquer the large Asian land empires next to them (Russia and China) while those giga-empires were in a moment of weakness. Eventually the little guys would have lost"<br /><br />what make you think eventually the little guys would have lost? Britain Won. So Japan could have won if America did not intervene.nigthedumbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13007157169911319176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-14199878553593317462014-09-01T12:37:22.978-04:002014-09-01T12:37:22.978-04:00gilroy0 & Noah: Thanks. No disagreements reall...gilroy0 & Noah: Thanks. No disagreements really. I realize about the material, in fact I mentioned it. But perhaps I'm underestimating it. Certainly we helped save the UK's butt: winning the Battle of the Atlantic benefited both the UK and Russia I suppose, but probably mostly the UK.<br /><br />Still the Russians were the ones cranking out T-34s in Siberia, not the US.<br /><br />As an aside, one thing that I always find morally strange (about myself, and my fellow Americans)... we get morally outraged about killing civilians in certain ways. More recently we've been more concerned with eliminating "collateral damage" in our wars ... but still, looking back on WWII I'll bet most of us have *relatively* little problem with the US (and UK) having literally incinerated tons of (millions?) German and Japanese civilians with strategic bombing... yet setting up death camps to kill them with gas, or freezing, starving and working them to death in gulags, or even just raping or enslaving them... that's somehow substantially more repugnant to us (me included!... but it doesn't make any sense, does it?).Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.com