tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post4808538942436607733..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: A big sweeping theory of modern historyNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-34796727589489422062015-12-02T21:09:27.954-05:002015-12-02T21:09:27.954-05:00Old people aren't best for fighting wars, but ...Old people aren't best for fighting wars, but they can do it. Cf., Ukraine.<br /><br />India is not a power. It's an Indian confederation with nuclear weapons.pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-72827362681179650122015-12-02T21:08:02.177-05:002015-12-02T21:08:02.177-05:00"And have you noticed the intense Republican ..."And have you noticed the intense Republican interest in getting rid of SS and medicare?"<br />-Yes. Which is why we got Medicare Part D under Obama. Oh, right...<br /><br />Naturally, the "intense Republican interest in getting rid of SS and medicare" is the stuff of sword-and-sorcery fantasy. Nowhere near the real world.<br /><br />"Does the huge decline in Union power since 1980 mean nothing in this context?"<br /><br />-The New Deal program giving the most power to unions (the NIRA) was repealed not by Reagan, and not by Clinton. It was repealed by the Supreme Court in the 1930s.<br /><br />The partial repeal of Glass-Steagall was a partial repeal of a law, not a program.<br /><br />"What sort of major pubic works have you seen recently?"<br /><br />-2009 porkulus.<br /><br />"How does austerity fit in this picture?"<br /><br />-It does not exist, and hasn't existed since the beginning of 2014.<br />pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-75702408731546435112015-12-02T11:09:02.525-05:002015-12-02T11:09:02.525-05:00The Arrighi/world-systems story, in other wordsThe Arrighi/world-systems story, in other wordsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-6373299792307379322015-11-29T06:33:20.372-05:002015-11-29T06:33:20.372-05:00This sweeping theory doesn't seem that interes...This sweeping theory doesn't seem that interesting or compelling. Technological change increases, as opposed to oscillating. World War I and World War II were more about changing from a feudal society to a democracy. But once you've gone through that change, it's much harder to go through it again a second time.<br /><br />Moving from an agrarian to an industrial society is one disturbance that has occurred over and over again, but in different geographical regions at different times. Changing from an industrial society to a service economy is much less traumatic.Cesiumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02025636403503365433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-37856373261777848752015-11-29T00:36:56.406-05:002015-11-29T00:36:56.406-05:00"But it's kind of interesting, isn't ..."But it's kind of interesting, isn't it? "<br /><br />No.inquirerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17712708265810814971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-31327115139282122362015-11-29T00:30:24.329-05:002015-11-29T00:30:24.329-05:00Shorter Noah: "Here is a summary of things t...Shorter Noah: "Here is a summary of things to date, plus the paper on how excess finance seems to hurt developed countries, and a prediction of civil war between classes"<br /><br />Rebuttal: old people don't fight civil wars. Imagine octogenarians fighting.<br /><br />More likely, if Toynbee's observation that civilizations last about 200 years is correct (and since forever it seems that's the case, just look at any history timeline), then the USA will harmlessly peter out and some other power, possibly India or China, will take over for a couple of hundreds years.Ray Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11134761834999705305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-33931469404742423662015-11-28T23:34:48.588-05:002015-11-28T23:34:48.588-05:00"the rise and decline of empires as at best a..."the rise and decline of empires as at best a ludicrous simplification and at worst a projection of modern anxieties and pre-conceptions onto the past? "<br /><br />It is even worse among economists (including some very famous ones- I won't name them), who seem to think that history is totally linear process of continual progress! Look at the number of them that say we should not read the classics because we know more than they did! <br /><br />When it comes to issues like the use of the word 'civilisation' this is where critical theory comes in: what do these words mean and why have they come to mean what they mean. If we did not have civilisation, what would we have? An investigation reveals things like power relations and marginalisation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-9460874233417791112015-11-28T23:26:15.879-05:002015-11-28T23:26:15.879-05:00Obviously, you need to 'specify' what powe...Obviously, you need to 'specify' what power means, but that does not mean in mathematical form. Chances are you if do that you will trivialise what you are doing. Tax comes from power, as much as the reverse, of course. And there are many cases of rich countries being defeated by much poorer ones.<br /><br />You have to work as an historian doing these issues. No preconceptions. No models. The facts and nothing else frame your analysis. Like an investigator, you work from the ground up, and you put the pieces of the jigsaw together. And you do not make up stories to calibrate a model. You accept there are things you don't know.You do not hide the contradictions, but tell us what they are. What you have to tell us is out of what we can know, this is what we do know.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-36548012644222846872015-11-28T21:44:47.153-05:002015-11-28T21:44:47.153-05:00Well, Glass-Steagall for one, and that is not triv...Well, Glass-Steagall for one, and that is not trivial. And have you noticed the intense Republican interest in getting rid of SS and medicare? If an R wins in 2016 and they have control of both houses of Congress, both of those will be dead quickly. Does the huge decline in Union power since 1980 mean nothing in this context?<br /><br />What sort of major pubic works have you seen recently? How does austerity fit in this picture? <br /><br />If inequality didn't drive anything, what is your take on the French Revolution? Or the Russian one, for that matter? <br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-45204226149566969402015-11-28T17:28:12.997-05:002015-11-28T17:28:12.997-05:00"Reagan/Thatcher and conservative lite Clinto..."Reagan/Thatcher and conservative lite Clinton/Blair stripped away New Deal programs"<br /><br />-Which ones? Social security? Medicare? The NHS? Public works? The FDIC? The paper dollar standard?<br /><br />And inequality didn't drive anyone into anything.pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-3325673557288582602015-11-28T16:28:09.694-05:002015-11-28T16:28:09.694-05:00Power is all well and good, but you have to specif...Power is all well and good, but you have to specify how it works, or it just becomes a game of "label-the-residual".<br /><br />In this case, geopolitical power is pretty clearly related to tax revenue, since more $$ can buy more guns. And political power is related to the ability to spend money to influence elites.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-64610356213308661882015-11-28T16:27:54.596-05:002015-11-28T16:27:54.596-05:00Piketty's history seems right to me. Inequalit...Piketty's history seems right to me. Inequality reigned until it drove civilization into disastrous war and depression. After World War II social democratic programs and fear of communism democratized the economy but back backsliding began almost immediately. <br /><br />Reagan/Thatcher and conservative lite Clinton/Blair stripped away New Deal programs and inequality is going back up again to historically high levels.<br /><br />Technology and globalization are just alibis for a political redistribution upwards. <br />Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08272747870634233567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-15943296937668563212015-11-28T16:25:40.198-05:002015-11-28T16:25:40.198-05:00Yep, I am sure that theories of the rise and decli...Yep, I am sure that theories of the rise and decline of empires are not only ludicrous simplifications, but also massive overfitting. As is my theory, most likely.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-59020162984270446582015-11-28T16:25:01.999-05:002015-11-28T16:25:01.999-05:00Sounds about right, yeah.Sounds about right, yeah.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-68130477559275667312015-11-28T12:42:48.701-05:002015-11-28T12:42:48.701-05:00Interesting, and thank you - but does it make any ...Interesting, and thank you - but does it make any difference to the theory to note that most historians of pre-modern societies regard the idea of the rise and decline of empires as at best a ludicrous simplification and at worst a projection of modern anxieties and pre-conceptions onto the past? Of course nothing stays the same for ever, and no human political, economic or cultural system endures indefinitely without changing - but that's a long way from saying that there is a single process and underlying set of causes, repeated again and again.Neville Morleyhttp://thesphinxblog.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-53223781177599125322015-11-28T12:31:34.861-05:002015-11-28T12:31:34.861-05:00Right. Kondratieff beat Noah to it.
The fact is t...Right. Kondratieff beat Noah to it.<br /><br />The fact is that any system with lags, momentum and negative feedback mechanisms which is subjected to random impulses will demonstrate some oscillating behavior. If you hit a bell it rings. If you hit an economy with a major change it will "ring". Sometimes a bunch of little waves will pile up into one big wave. Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-66103789103618670552015-11-28T12:29:37.935-05:002015-11-28T12:29:37.935-05:00Noah, I do think there is elevated risk of war, fo...Noah, I do think there is elevated risk of war, for all the reasons you give and more. Are you familiar with Carlota Perez's work on cycles of technological change? <br /><br />However, I would add one more war that you haven't considered. We scared ourselves silly at Hiroshima and since then have done everything possible to avoid outright world war. But I would regard the Cold War as the last and greatest of the 20th Century wars. Eastern Europe was the front line, and it is still rebuilding after the economic, political and social destruction that losing the Cold War caused for the USSR and its satellites. War does not have to be fought with tanks, guns and bombs. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-32377786906068812892015-11-28T12:25:39.932-05:002015-11-28T12:25:39.932-05:00The South China Sea is all about China's imper...The South China Sea is all about China's imperial ambitions. The United States has three choices: (1) ignore the whole thing and let China do a creeping conquest of the countries around it (like they did with Tibet and will eventually try with Taiwan); (2) wait until China gets into a shooting war with Vietnam or some other neighbor over borders; (3) push back over a bunch of uninhabited rocks in the middle of the ocean. Pushing back in the South China sea is probably the safest long term strategy. Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-46855515392096711442015-11-28T10:12:53.807-05:002015-11-28T10:12:53.807-05:00"The gains from opening to trade are estimate..."The gains from opening to trade are estimated at 63% for the 10th percentile of the income distribution and 28% for the 90th percentile."<br />http://www.voxeu.org/article/pro-poor-bias-trade-new-research-expenditure-channel<br /><br />Just as in the developed world, when more money goes to the bottom (when and if it does), more money tends to recirculate at the bottom.<br /><br />The Asian Tigers, China, South American when it stops listening to the IMF, eventually India will succeed -- then the rest of the underdeveloped world will follow in their developed wake.<br /><br />The way out of strife seems to be by whatever means (whatever drives Asians uniquely to spread the wealth of developing economies) to spread the wealth as widely as possible while growing up.<br /><br />Ultimately in the whole world -- when it the whole world is developed -- the equalizing agent will be, guess what: labor unions. That's Occam's Razor for you -- a little less hard to follow than all that above. :-)<br /><br />Just one example: today's students are trapped between unexpectedly mushrooming college costs and surprise at ever diminishing returns in the labor market they are supposed to pay college off with -- none of which would be happening in a world captured by labor unions -- that is by the interests of the average person.Denis Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11833367196756465896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-51064901851986820262015-11-28T09:59:52.219-05:002015-11-28T09:59:52.219-05:00A theory of history? The other Karl (Popper) wil...A theory of history? The other Karl (Popper) will be spinning in his grave.Primula Monkeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09289100326536298640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-64512333021575823862015-11-28T05:01:43.202-05:002015-11-28T05:01:43.202-05:00It would be good if some political scientists and ...It would be good if some political scientists and historians got involved in this blog. Some ecconomic historians are pretty good - Angus Maddison, Nick Craft and Thomas Piketty, but the real stuff goes on in history and political science departments. I would not write off China yet. Most Sinologists say that expansion in that economy still has a long way to go. But the biggest threat this time I think is similar to that which ended Classical civilisation: non-state actors - eg. Islamic State. The main worry is that the barbarians get their hands on WMDs/ WMD technology.<br /><br />Read Andrew Gamble. Economists are too busy doing what they always do - messing around with silly models.<br /><br />NK.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-54259928755668128662015-11-28T04:40:38.836-05:002015-11-28T04:40:38.836-05:00Unusual for an economist you bring in power into t...Unusual for an economist you bring in power into the discussion. Yes the WWi-WWII were crucial in reorganising power arrangements and ending the old unstable multi-polar system.<br /><br />The best guy when it comes to the 'big sweep' is Karl Marx. I am not suggesting you read Das Kapital, but it is worth reading summaries of it. Historian do not use theories or models to guide the analysis of their work for obvious reasons. But if there was a reference which most closely resembles the historian's big sweep it would have to be the Marxian Dialectic. There is no competition to this when it comes to explaining how capitalism emerges from feudalism. Also don't get into a neo-classical economist's mindset when it comes to technology and globalisation (just as you do not with free trade - both free trade and import substitution were important). In some ways European imperialism/globalisation was driving technological change as much as the reverse. It was linked, two way causation. But wars were crucial. Do you think your blog would be in English, or would still exist at all if Trafalgar had had a different outcome?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-91741709259051846942015-11-28T04:27:33.968-05:002015-11-28T04:27:33.968-05:00The problem is noah is using a single data point, ...The problem is noah is using a single data point, great depression & ww2, for his argument.grey enlightenmenthttp://greyenlightenment.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-52758372306305572232015-11-27T20:15:17.622-05:002015-11-27T20:15:17.622-05:00Good piece. The parallels are disturbing. The mess...Good piece. The parallels are disturbing. The mess in Syria has gotten the world powers caught in a web of confusing alliances, and the South China Sea situation on the other side of the world could be much ado about nothing or the tinder that turns China from a frenenemy into much worse.Aaron Jordanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10141140531085517695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-8189977183773861972015-11-27T17:04:47.862-05:002015-11-27T17:04:47.862-05:00(Best said in a Manchester accent - it's flat ...(Best said in a Manchester accent - it's flat and down to earth)Lukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14014996272817759191noreply@blogger.com