tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post7221842722479879981..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Historical cycle theories are silly...or are they?Noah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-29514915234448660392017-04-08T17:53:59.550-04:002017-04-08T17:53:59.550-04:00All cyclical historical theories must mention Ibn ...All cyclical historical theories must mention Ibn Khaldun of which the above observations are just modern version of his basic theories of society, culture, and institutions. His most famous observation was exactly that institutions during the height of a specific culture enter a decline and are disrupted by outside forces that are by definition barbarians as they are either external actors or exist on the periphery of a civilization. Those barbarians succeed because they have a strong sense of social cohesion (Asabiyyah is also translated as tribalism or nationalism). The new barbarian rulers either adopt or are absorbed into the culture they come to rule and thus there is a degradation in their social cohesion which leaves them open for disruption by a new outside group. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13305124836711242805noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-74238906730565322312017-03-10T03:05:45.739-05:002017-03-10T03:05:45.739-05:00I really don't think there's much to see i...I really don't think there's much to see in the observation that "eras of stability tend to lead to crises eventually". Forgive me for pointing out that that is purely a tautology. Go flip a coin over and over, and you'll notice: any unbroken sequence of heads eventually ends with a tails.<br /><br />PS. Also, this is a minor point, but unlike the Nazis, I don't think the Confederacy were a cosmic evil -- in that they're not very cosmic. The Nazis tried to take over basically all of Europe, especially Russia, and probably would have gone on to try to take over almost the whole world; while the Confederates never had a serious ambition to leave their own backyard. So they're really just a provincial evil.<br /><br />[The Soviet Union, on the other hand... cosmic evil. Absolutely cosmic evil. And the United States is cosmic... um, neutral? Good simply by virtue of defeating the clear evils? Hard to say.]Progressive Reformationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04697485628844578071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-89297580999702645722017-03-02T18:13:19.603-05:002017-03-02T18:13:19.603-05:00I find the institutional decay model persuasive. E...I find the institutional decay model persuasive. Even the media is starting to talk in terms of institutional collapse. According to Howe, we are due for a "crisis". My problem in the past has been expecting a war as a crisis. That may not be necessary. It is the generations' reaction to whatever events are stressing the culture that trigger a crisis atmosphere. From the inside, a crisis looks way different from what our great-grandchildren will study in history class. <br /><br />The thing I have watched as an example of a completely unforeseen (by me) institutional failure is public education. I would never have thought that "choice" would advance to the point where public education is not considered the default option. While this educational crisis may be manufactured, it is getting traction and becoming "real"<br /><br />I watch for a backlash against the chaos that is coming to a head with Trump, School Choice, etc. It should resemble the 1950's in all its glory and smothering conformity. I should like just long enough to know it is true. If it does not arrive, I will burn my copies of Generations and The Fourth Turning! :)Scott Fhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16970769284819442188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-49895140515410206302017-03-01T20:46:49.145-05:002017-03-01T20:46:49.145-05:00I find it extremely hard to believe that these imm...I find it extremely hard to believe that these immutable social forces driving these supposed cycles are the same in the Internet age as they were in eg the 1700's or ancient Greece. Information flows are totally different.<br /><br />More historically persistent: Any grandiose social theory that puts us on the cusp of a period creative renewal is likely to appeal to fanciful narcissists.Jim Birchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07415199338332642534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-20164822743299091952017-03-01T15:28:23.286-05:002017-03-01T15:28:23.286-05:00Thousands of years of Chinese history certainly ex...Thousands of years of Chinese history certainly experiences pseudo-periodic cycles: unification and harmony, complacency and decay, corruption and upheaval, then total breakdown and complete chaos. <br /><br />Are modern western societies that much different? After all, US has only fewer than 300 years of history. Western world seems to be experiencing build up of corruption and discontent right now. Hard to see how the decaying can be reversed.Hidden Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05533174135430259653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-26509484843069981212017-03-01T10:15:15.041-05:002017-03-01T10:15:15.041-05:00fuzzy
Yes - I was wondering - to quote "... t...fuzzy<br />Yes - I was wondering - to quote "... that eras of stability tend to lead to crises eventually." Now where have I heard that before?reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-62363033288165280162017-02-28T11:25:21.242-05:002017-02-28T11:25:21.242-05:00I was going to recommend Ian Morris' Why the W...I was going to recommend Ian Morris' Why the West Rules for Now but then I realized that you had mentioned the book in a blog posting. Anyway, he delivers some convincing ideas on what drives history.khhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05306699725434468980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-2826351484119567352017-02-28T06:16:38.788-05:002017-02-28T06:16:38.788-05:00How did you write this whole thing without using t...How did you write this whole thing without using the word Minsky?fuzzyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02632799586110325806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-8022420152993209002017-02-28T01:26:30.564-05:002017-02-28T01:26:30.564-05:00You were on the right track with silly. You were on the right track with silly. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12599006340469818689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-29148092865988369942017-02-27T21:19:03.556-05:002017-02-27T21:19:03.556-05:00I was always fond of Kondratieff or Benner cycles ...I was always fond of Kondratieff or Benner cycles though wave is preferred when only approximate. Lordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06747994571555237739noreply@blogger.com