tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post1035924906716908592..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Perceiving Job InsecurityNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-32210212366970505742013-09-03T09:20:03.372-04:002013-09-03T09:20:03.372-04:00Indeed Carola, Keynes's views on probability a...Indeed Carola, Keynes's views on probability are somewhat discussed in the secondary source literature. However, from that literature, here is a more recent scholarly publication that looks quite promising and may very well have heavy implications...<br /><br />http://www.torrossa.it/resources/an/2569189Blue Aurorahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02044362251868221897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-42971009255998048942013-09-03T09:09:23.217-04:002013-09-03T09:09:23.217-04:00Asking people to estimate their probability of job...Asking people to estimate their probability of job loss is a recipe for mass confusion.<br /><br />What's my probability of job loss? I'm studied math a uni, specicalizing in probability, and I have no idea. I'd say about 5%. But I just pulled that number of my ass.<br /><br />I would think it would be informative to ask the question with 3 options:<br />Likely<br />Unlikely<br />Very unlikelyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-754235351819725462013-09-02T04:22:23.531-04:002013-09-02T04:22:23.531-04:00In fact most people quitting voluntarily ALREADY h...In fact most people quitting voluntarily ALREADY have another job.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958786975015285323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-20265501232121373792013-08-30T15:19:17.377-04:002013-08-30T15:19:17.377-04:00Because people are over and over and over again ov...Because people are over and over and over again over-confident about their ability to predict future events. People are predictably irrational.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-77938725686621718512013-08-30T15:17:02.958-04:002013-08-30T15:17:02.958-04:00Forgive anon at 11:13am. Siri was inadvertently t...Forgive anon at 11:13am. Siri was inadvertently transcribing while the dude was looking in the mirror.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-7554600569389141932013-08-30T14:13:33.709-04:002013-08-30T14:13:33.709-04:00A psychological issue that I suspect is big part o...A psychological issue that I suspect is big part of the perceived job security picture: How well can someone handle a job loss? If the answer is "not a serious problem, maybe take a couple of weeks off", then the job will be perceived as more secure than if the answer is "I lose my house in 2 months, and will never be able to work again."<br /><br />When unemployment is low, especially in a particular field, the risks of being unemployed are also low, and so the perceived job security will be higher, and vice versa. Also, when someone has low personal debt and/or significant savings, I suspect there will also be a higher perceived job security.Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-79683728087767135082013-08-30T07:03:15.918-04:002013-08-30T07:03:15.918-04:00Me too, Noah. I know it's supposed to be a spi...Me too, Noah. I know it's supposed to be a spinning penny but to me it also looks like a person with their head down....real picture of depression. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-3629907205182285782013-08-30T06:22:39.277-04:002013-08-30T06:22:39.277-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03090837998507058949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-36922244686848717392013-08-30T06:20:29.747-04:002013-08-30T06:20:29.747-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03090837998507058949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-50428992356581942952013-08-29T16:43:54.397-04:002013-08-29T16:43:54.397-04:00I'd have to dig it up, but I'm pretty sure...I'd have to dig it up, but I'm pretty sure no one understands probability. I have a journal article pinned to my office wall that has quote is a perfect illustration: "Very rarely does anyone warn students in low-level remedial courses that the math sequence only has a 17 percent success rate."<br /><br />I love that sentence because of the irony -- even if explained, remedial students don't get the 17%. Heck, most non remedial people won't understand this. <br /><br />For example, if, after five years, you have kept your job, what was your probability of losing it if you wanted it?<br /><br />I'd bet that a lot of people would have a zero percent chance.J. Edgar Mihelichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08735224229199089531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-56944937131045051792013-08-29T16:08:09.567-04:002013-08-29T16:08:09.567-04:00Phil, I checked by age groups, and it's true t...Phil, I checked by age groups, and it's true that the oldest people are most likely to say 0%, which could well be that they plan to retire soon. But even among 18-35 year olds, over 20% say they have a 0% chance.Carolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12783977056485775882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-92065258843010069202013-08-29T15:59:40.428-04:002013-08-29T15:59:40.428-04:00Here is a link to an ungated version:
http://www....Here is a link to an ungated version: <br />http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/pdf/rr12-750.pdf<br /><br />See Table 1, near the bottom of the table they break down insecurity by "income-to-needs" ratio and get approximately the same number by high and low income-to-needs ratio. Here's their description of that ratio:<br /><br />"We also include a measure of the household’s income-to-needs <br />ratio in 2008 (income divided by the federal poverty line for that household size). We dichotomized the distribution to separate those with ratios of less than one – generally categorized as “poor” – or from one to two – considered “near poor” – from those with ratios of two or more."Carolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12783977056485775882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-3616513820095407312013-08-29T15:05:18.299-04:002013-08-29T15:05:18.299-04:00I wonder about how well that question generalizes ...I wonder about how well that question generalizes across income brackets. "A job you want to keep" might mean very different things depending on one's circumstances, employment options, and other factors, so comparing tercile to tercile is rife with measurement problems.Dan Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12947782079761530102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43351038450614438382013-08-29T13:42:44.145-04:002013-08-29T13:42:44.145-04:00Noah you are far to busy to be commenting on silly...Noah you are far to busy to be commenting on silly little blogs, please return to more productive and important matters.<br /><br />Oh and I'm totally not holding it against you that you abandoned us loyal readers. <br /><br />By the way I have been really enjoying your temporary Noahpinioners. Kudos to them for the high quality blogging. I hope you know you are quite lucky to have such talent to rely on, or are you so haughty now that just the priveledge of blogging in your space is reward enough? Methinks not.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-77072273066361185362013-08-29T13:12:25.630-04:002013-08-29T13:12:25.630-04:00I never imagined I would be called an asshole for ...I never imagined I would be called an asshole for sharing my story. The point is I know how stressful it is to be in a poor economic position. Now that I'm not, I've decided that the only way to eliminate that stress from my life to have plenty of savings. I've also decided that I'm willing to forego increasing my standard of living in order to have those savings.<br /><br />Secondly, my views have been shaped by where I've worked. I've never worked for an employer that put the interests of their employees ahead of the business' financial performance. My experience has been that if demand slackens, hours will be cut, wages might be cut too. If the employer thinks they can make more money by outsourcing Job XYZ, it will be outsourced. If the employer thinks they can eliminate overhead by consolidating operations, they will be consolidated etc... I think people are completely naive to think that there is anything they can do that guarantees their ongoing employment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-20968834395052324832013-08-29T13:03:36.014-04:002013-08-29T13:03:36.014-04:00Carola - the study is gated, but do they break out...Carola - the study is gated, but do they break out the magnitude of the job-insecurity effect by income strata? Would be interesting to see if the same issues you cite in the Michigan Survey are at play.<br /><br />Agree with the other comments about being careful we don't conflate perceived probability of job loss with concern about job loss. On average, a bottom tercile worker is going to be more adversely affected by job loss. Maybe bottom tercile workers are less realistic about their chances of being laid off over a 5 year time horizon because they're more focused on near-term problems and concerns then are top tercile workers? Not sure...Evan Bhttp://google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-5271140251085246932013-08-29T12:36:25.644-04:002013-08-29T12:36:25.644-04:00Oh I see. Maybe that's were 0% comes from - re...Oh I see. Maybe that's were 0% comes from - retirement isn't "losing a job you want to keep."<br /><br />Need more coffee.Phil Koopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-85675241579223059062013-08-29T12:24:36.874-04:002013-08-29T12:24:36.874-04:00great, so I was dramatically wrong, I should be fi...great, so I was dramatically wrong, I should be fired. Apparently people underestimate the odds of getting discharged. <br /><br />So if people are getting fired at such high rates apparently the source of anxiety should be about the ease of finding a job once fired. Perhaps a proxy for this is the rate of voluntary quits - assuming people quit on their own at higher rates when the general view is its easier to find another job.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15136541075745913165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-90463723154228924602013-08-29T11:13:07.781-04:002013-08-29T11:13:07.781-04:00Congratulations, asshole. Your point is what? Congratulations, asshole. Your point is what? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-12471901246839247472013-08-29T09:54:37.480-04:002013-08-29T09:54:37.480-04:00When I cursor over it, it says "spinning penn...When I cursor over it, it says "spinning penny" which seems plausible with the right lighting and a reflective table.<br /><br />On the main question: I wonder if they factored out people who expected to leave their jobs through failing health or retirement? For myself (age 59), the chances are probably over 80% that either health problems or retirement will take me from my current job within five years. Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-88848796678931770522013-08-29T09:32:25.287-04:002013-08-29T09:32:25.287-04:00"The level is apparently wrong in any case as..."The level is apparently wrong in any case as the actual probability of losing a job is so low ..." <br />No its not.<br /><br />Read again 1-2% per month i.e. 12-25% per year and they were asked for the probability over 5 years. So the answers don't look obviously way off.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958786975015285323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-2748345558347220162013-08-29T09:27:50.411-04:002013-08-29T09:27:50.411-04:00It also may mean (for some people not all), that t...It also may mean (for some people not all), that they are more likely to withhold information, or criticise other people because they see their co-workers as competitors. It must tend to make the workplace less co-operative.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958786975015285323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-48590384207305647652013-08-29T09:18:08.550-04:002013-08-29T09:18:08.550-04:00Damn, I don't know what the photo is on this p...Damn, I don't know what the photo is on this post, but it's giving me the willies!! :-)Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-88345232019238387712013-08-29T09:07:47.785-04:002013-08-29T09:07:47.785-04:00This is interesting. It seems what you are trying ...This is interesting. It seems what you are trying to get at is anxiety. Why not just use the change in perception and forget about the level. The level is apparently wrong in any case as the actual probability of losing a job is so low, such high estimates for the probability of job loss may be driving the anxiety which apparently stems from a cognitive/behavioral bias presumably anxiety levels increase with an increase in the bias.<br /><br />Its not clear if the bias actually lags actual increases in probability or if it is simply lags in reporting and measuring of the bias, but it may be just as useful to use change in actual layoff rates as presumably awareness of this change drives the bias and the anxiety.<br /><br />And Peter, perhaps higher income people have higher anxiety due to social stigma and higher difficulty in replacing similar salary, and higher financial obligations?Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15136541075745913165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-36186759229079517042013-08-29T08:42:09.337-04:002013-08-29T08:42:09.337-04:00A wonderful post, Carola, and relevant to thinking...A wonderful post, Carola, and relevant to thinking about the precautionary principle too, if (like me) you think it's at least partly about how ignorance should enter into decision heuristics. One approach that survey-writers could take is to adopt a version of the chain strategy: ask people to compare the likelihood of their losing their job to some hypothetical benchmark. Directly or indirectly, by calibrating that benchmark we are getting somewhere.<br /><br />That said, anxiety about losing your job is not the same as the probability of it, since it depends on other factors, like how well you'll manage if you do get canned. Presumably, for any given subjective probability of being laid off, lower income people have cause to be more anxious.Peter Dormanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00093399591393648071noreply@blogger.com