tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post1182434418465197303..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Japan's low unemployment is easily explainedNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-85459176785970344032016-10-31T20:37:14.791-04:002016-10-31T20:37:14.791-04:00Two more reasons: 1) Japan seems to create superfi...Two more reasons: 1) Japan seems to create superficial jobs to hire unskilled people to do useless tasks. Opening elevator doors, directing cars out of parking decks, telling pedestrians when to cross the street, etc. This kind of superfluous labor keeps the employment rate artificially low. <br />2) It's virtually impossible to get fired from a Japanese company. If the company decides it doesn't like you, it won't promote you, and may transfer you to a less prestigious position, but they'll never fire you in the absence of a total scandal or criminal act. Lifetime employment contracts do a good job of preventing unemployment. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-61392788635068713432013-09-08T20:30:21.493-04:002013-09-08T20:30:21.493-04:00Unemployment all around the globe should really be...Unemployment all around the globe should really be eradicated. It is good to have a safety net like <a href="http://www.trueinsurance.com.au/bill-cover-insurance/" rel="nofollow">income insurance</a> but being able to cut the root cause of the problem is even better.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11479586577320227191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-81279582808317725822013-06-18T01:45:12.206-04:002013-06-18T01:45:12.206-04:00More japanese are working abroad than before. More...More japanese are working abroad than before. More temporarily hired. More foreigners working on contracts. More unproductive jobs by state intervention. State and corporations working on social stability package, not immediately good for markets though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-77067733533841305372011-08-28T02:27:53.872-04:002011-08-28T02:27:53.872-04:00Why was your safe search off in the fist place?Why was your safe search off in the fist place?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-10118609387351729702011-08-26T21:17:57.326-04:002011-08-26T21:17:57.326-04:00YESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYES
Good. Let us know wh...<i>YESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYES</i><br /><br />Good. Let us know what it is about <b> when it is finished.</b>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43424182370011894102011-08-26T21:05:54.535-04:002011-08-26T21:05:54.535-04:00"Second, the dirty secret of Japanese industr..."Second, the dirty secret of Japanese industry over the past two decades is the increasing reliance on low-paid contract employees."<br /><br />While I think that you are right that this shift is important (and bad news for the current generation), it's not a secret in the slightest. There was even a (seriously brilliant) TV drama about the trials and tribulations of temp staff at big companies: Haken no Hinkaku (2007).David Littleboyhttp://www.pbase.com/davidjlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-88934211448233384442011-08-26T12:58:20.965-04:002011-08-26T12:58:20.965-04:00I want to "Like" Claudia's comment. ...I want to "Like" Claudia's comment. Noah, you should really be spending your procrastination time playing tower defense games, rather than writing blog entries. The former is much less apparent to your profs.A.K. Anselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14849329951808383265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-54467012461074274052011-08-26T09:50:41.632-04:002011-08-26T09:50:41.632-04:00No one has brought this up, and it's not a the...No one has brought this up, and it's not a theme that I'm comfortable with, but could (lack of) immigration be a factor? My non-expert understanding is that they import very few foreign workers up and down the wage spectrum, unlike other large countries that have far less of a language barrier, and this may offer much of the low end protection against the ravages of surplused workers from overseas. Of course I would hasten to point out that this also reduces any opportunity for domestic demand growth given their demographic circumstances.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-89879424255505789722011-08-26T08:22:49.901-04:002011-08-26T08:22:49.901-04:00Two additional thoughts on your last point. I'...Two additional thoughts on your last point. I'm not an economist but have been following discussions about wage stickiness in recessions with interest. The Japan data suggests that wage stickiness might not be as significant an issue there as it is here. Two non-cultural differences might also help explain this.<br /><br />First, the typical salaried worker - even low-level employees - in Japan historically received a fairly significant portion of their income in the form of semi-annual bonuses. In the boom years, these bonuses could equal a year's worth of salary, although more common was between four and eight months' worth. (One reason given for this compensation structure is that Japan's national health insurance premium are keyed to an employee's monthly, not annual, salary, and backloading compensation into bonuses kept premium contributions to a minimum.) Friends have told me that bonuses have dropped over the past 15 years. Is it possible that compensation in the form of bonuses exhibits less stickiness than an hourly wage or a base salary?<br /><br />Second, the dirty secret of Japanese industry over the past two decades is the increasing reliance on low-paid contract employees. Rather than bringing in new employees on a career track, it's increasingly common to hire on an as-needed contract basis for a much lower salary (and typically no, or very small, bonus). Data I've seen suggests that upwards of 35% of the Japanese labor force now consists of contract labor. (Even my left-of-center Japanese friends readily acknowledge that this is largely driven by the difficulty under Japanese law of firing non-contract employees, even during downturns.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-67631354714711161552011-08-26T07:35:38.698-04:002011-08-26T07:35:38.698-04:00Funny I saw a new post from you before your JMPs s...Funny I saw a new post from you before your JMPs showed up in my inbox. Really you like the pay of a grad student?Claudia Sahmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03501488047889000055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-61432276674142485892011-08-26T07:20:44.721-04:002011-08-26T07:20:44.721-04:00I am not suggesting that this is the key to the p...I am not suggesting that this is the key to the puzzle but here is some anecdotal information for your consideration.<br /><br />The Japanese firms with whom we deal have shifted a lot of the older employees into what had previously been jobs for OLs or young employees. Rather than offer tin handshakes to this bulge of low/mid-management 55-65 year-olds as US firms might have done, they have shifted the underperformers to clerical work while they run out the clock. <br /><br />That data concerning youth unemployment might be explained in part by this anecdote. Older workers are clogging the positions that used to be done by new hires or the young women they expected to recycle every 4 years or so. <br /><br />This phenomenon should correct over the next decade or so as these "lifetimers" are pensioned off and the variable labour force system becomes fully entrenched.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-38596257036871000382011-08-26T03:46:11.966-04:002011-08-26T03:46:11.966-04:00It might be useful to check the employment ratio i...It might be useful to check the employment ratio instead of the unemployment rate... That should give you an immediate answer as to whether the unemployment rates of Japan and the US are comparable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-89319526379270206712011-08-25T23:51:54.727-04:002011-08-25T23:51:54.727-04:00Btw, Japan's unemployment rate is 5% even with...<i>Btw, Japan's unemployment rate is 5% even within the sample of men</i><br /><br />Hmm, good point. So maybe the falling wages are really driving most of the "puzzle" right now.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-35000976935591562922011-08-25T23:48:23.081-04:002011-08-25T23:48:23.081-04:00You are supposed to be working on your thesis.
YE...<i>You are supposed to be working on your thesis.</i><br /><br />YESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYES I'm on it yoNoah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-21264524047081004172011-08-25T19:46:01.756-04:002011-08-25T19:46:01.756-04:00Many women in Japan do not work. The unemployment ...<i>Many women in Japan do not work. The unemployment rate is the percent of the labor force who can't find work; if a bunch of women say "I am a housewife and am not looking for work," that will drastically reduce the unemployment rate. </i><br /><br />It seems you are implicitly and inversely denying the "lump of labor fallacy" which is itself <a href="http://ecologicalheadstand.blogspot.com/2011/08/invitation-to-ryan-avent-for-debate.html" rel="nofollow">a canard with no factual nor theoretical basis.</a><br /><br />Is that your intent, or does it even matter?<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-67440365564028209952011-08-25T16:35:23.890-04:002011-08-25T16:35:23.890-04:00You are confused about your first answer. Flows be...You are confused about your first answer. Flows between "not in the labor force" to "in the labor force" will add to both the numerator and the denominator, so the effect on the unemployment rate is ambiguous. It depends on the counterfactual of how women would do if they were in the labor force. If USA is the comparison, women seem to do as good (maybe even better) in terms of employment.<br /><br /> Btw, Japan's unemployment rate is 5% even within the sample of men (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/154dt.htm). So maybe you only have two good answers.. didn't read that far.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-72260644124051507432011-08-25T15:01:17.776-04:002011-08-25T15:01:17.776-04:00You are supposed to be working on your thesis.You are supposed to be working on your thesis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com