tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post1187126595947249798..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: More on empirics in Econ 101Noah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-50168208001191861862016-02-27T19:36:45.158-05:002016-02-27T19:36:45.158-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-61132168831415151382016-02-27T19:36:34.466-05:002016-02-27T19:36:34.466-05:00Excelets are perhaps the tool you have sought
http...Excelets are perhaps the tool you have sought<br />http://academic.pgcc.edu/~ssinex/excelets/<br /><br />Excelets are interactive Excel spreadsheets or simulations of mathematical models. The user changes a variable and the spreadsheet changes in numerical, graphical, and/or even symbolic form (equations). Through the use of numerical experimentation and "what if" scenarios, we have a powerful learning tool for students using readily available off-the-shelf software. All of this is done computationally with no use of programming, no macros. An Excelet resembles a "Javaless" applet. <br /><br />Interaction is via sliders, radio buttons, menus, scroll bars, etc. as well as setting values in cells.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-90613728382709795382016-02-27T19:31:59.820-05:002016-02-27T19:31:59.820-05:00I agree with your point about empiricism, but it i...I agree with your point about empiricism, but it is not well suggested by that photo of a high school chemistry lab. I have crystal clear memory that the main lesson taught in those lab sessions is how to fudge the data to fit the preconceived answer provided by theory. That theory has been tested elsewhere, but sure as hell not in that lab setting. Not to distract from your main point, which seems right. Like Brett mentioning his love of lamp, I just want to weigh in here with something.Gerard MacDonellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-36381055908687601292016-02-26T18:00:58.629-05:002016-02-26T18:00:58.629-05:00because small changes over time have a big effect:...because small changes over time have a big effect: the diff to your retirement account of 1% or 2% over inflation is a lot over 30 yearsSoccer Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10745967553131454562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-38140950255645433282016-02-26T17:59:36.756-05:002016-02-26T17:59:36.756-05:00does the law of supply and demand really hold. How...does the law of supply and demand really hold. How do we know this.<br />counter examples<br /><br />Can we measure utility ? how do we measure the utility of a new ipod and good health on the same scale<br /><br />Soccer Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10745967553131454562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-60505185463038878052016-02-26T17:57:00.680-05:002016-02-26T17:57:00.680-05:00what is science ?
it is a coherent way of thinking...what is science ?<br />it is a coherent way of thinking that emphasizes critical examination of data, and generating data based theories with predictive value<br />much more important then any piece of knowledge, even basic stuff like newtons laws or that the atom and cell are the basis of chemistry or biology, is this idea of what science is.<br />I think you could have good class experiments that inculcate this spirit of looking at data critically, and generating theories<br /><br />eg, does an increase in price really lower the amount sold ? how do we know this ? how general are our examples ? what are the counter examples ? how general is this ?Soccer Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10745967553131454562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-49139961614622871052016-02-17T08:44:39.793-05:002016-02-17T08:44:39.793-05:00Ben S. Bernanke used statistics in a 2002 paper to...Ben S. Bernanke used statistics in a 2002 paper to determine whether Fed policy shocks had any affect on a host of real variables (including real GDP) in the USA from 1959 to 2001. Here is what he found: the Fed policy shocks had 3.2% to 13.2% out of 100% on any change on a variety of variables, using regression analysis. Google the FAVAR paper. This range of change is 'statistically significant' but common sense tells you it's not that big a deal. Next time a monetarist tells you how the Fed can change the world, throw this stat at them.Ray Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11134761834999705305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-2046027235414436912016-02-16T21:48:31.160-05:002016-02-16T21:48:31.160-05:00I come for the economics. But I stay for the Easte...I come for the economics. But I stay for the Easter Eggs.Simonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-32366040532959594632016-02-16T15:24:09.934-05:002016-02-16T15:24:09.934-05:00What about playing an MMORPG and seeing how the ec...What about playing an MMORPG and seeing how the economy works inside the game?The Neil Chatelainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08844338637584963049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-46230582269117224482016-02-16T14:49:04.975-05:002016-02-16T14:49:04.975-05:00As comparison, most introductory psychology books ...As comparison, most introductory psychology books include a research methods chapter - usually chapter two - and a heavy emphasis is made on citing research throughout the book (thousands of citations are included in an introductory psychology textbook to reinforce the research behind the concepts). In addition, research methods and statistics are courses required of majors in both psychology and sociology, and are usually taught out of those departments specifically for their majors.<br /><br />The addition of sites like MobLab do provide more opportunity to bring experiments into the classroom, which may be easier to do once or twice a term than it would be to overhaul the entire course to emphasize methods/statistics in each lesson. Charlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-17366621196970936322016-02-16T10:37:14.811-05:002016-02-16T10:37:14.811-05:00I find the name "MyEconLab" a depressing...I find the name "MyEconLab" a depressing (and unsuccessful) attempt to be trendy.inquirerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17712708265810814971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-41496491423235733512016-02-16T06:57:35.903-05:002016-02-16T06:57:35.903-05:00Not entirely sold on your plan yet. I found unders...Not entirely sold on your plan yet. I found understanding the arguments (theory) before learning the details (empirics) quite useful. Taught me a way of thinking and approaching economic problems - and made the empirics part a lot more fascinating once I got to it. I reckon some HET and humility in the first econ Courses would be much beneficial, rather than the "the textbook says x" attitude of many professors. <br /><br /><br />As for Coyle's article, I wish it was representative for the Student community; it just isn't... most students fuel a ideologically-driven hatred for the "neoliberal agenda" and want to replace the mainstream NNS power over economics with marxist and PKE instead. so much for "plurality". Joakim Bookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08963956441928017771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-19046657597962789932016-02-16T04:12:50.576-05:002016-02-16T04:12:50.576-05:00For better or worse academic social science is ver...For better or worse academic social science is very stat heavy. This would include both the sort of experiments you might get in psychology (which probably merge into behavioural economics) and the observational studies you see in human geography. Other theory heavy and observational data heavy subjects such as ecology are also very stat heavy and do not see theory and empirical data study as distinct.Stephen Hendersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484961735776246487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-40910120063404247422016-02-15T18:47:35.694-05:002016-02-15T18:47:35.694-05:00The point of any discipline is to accumulate knowl...The point of any discipline is to accumulate knowledge, not recycle it. They way to do this is to test theory against results at every step, and constantly search for more results and better tools. This is not just "science" - any recent good book on, say, ancient Athens is a lot better than anything published 40 years ago, because it will integrate knowledge gained from archaeology, epigraphy, coin distributions, forensics, pollen analysis, different ways of textual criticism and much more. Statistics is one set of tools, but we lack good numbers for anything previous to 50 years ago (which in macro terms is last week - economies evolve slowly). So economics students need to be told of the limits of the evidence, how to gather and exploit proxy evidence, the limits of robustness, where tests between competing theories remain weak or out of reach. Just as history students are taught about primary and secondary sources, chains of evidence and the synergies (or clashes) between different sorts of evidence. In short, any first year economics course needs to inculcate a real sense of how very tentative most conclusions are, and the excitement of finding ways to strengthen them.<br /><br />Peter Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13289172253358199028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-46284200852300702482016-02-15T11:35:33.264-05:002016-02-15T11:35:33.264-05:00It's like today's Econ 101 students are ea...It's like today's Econ 101 students are eating a giant jar of peanut butter, and then only later eating jars of jelly in the 200/300/400/500-level courses... and all you're suggesting is that Econ 101 (and above) start feeding the kids peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.<br /><br />I think it sounds reasonable but without specifics I can see how it sounds quixotic to others.<br /><br />Econ 101 textbook authors are re-writing their textbooks all the time -- have you thought about giving specific suggestions about where and how exactly to slip in the jelly for the next edition? You could even go chapter by chapter or unit by unit or theory by theory, and suggest specific empirical methods, papers, tests, "lab" exercises, etc. to accompany the theory.Jacob A. Gellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11423635278614375631noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-63346801511435081872016-02-14T23:34:48.500-05:002016-02-14T23:34:48.500-05:00But the very beginning of empiricism is not statis...But the very beginning of empiricism is not statistics or even experimentation, but careful, systematic observation, and public, repeatable, meaningful measurements. Start with that! If you don't think these need to be taught, look at <a href="http://www.cgdev.org/blog/world-bank-poverty-statistics-lack-median-income-data-so-we-filled-gap-ourselves-download-available" rel="nofollow"> this example. </a> Or <a href="http://ineteconomics.org/ideas-papers/blog/friendly-fire" rel="nofollow"> this one</a>, which uses output per worker as a measure of productivity. That is completely inappropriate even within Europe, where hours worked per year vary widely (output per hour worked is a far better measure).Ken Schulzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06997834949296198821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-16406956801498542392016-02-14T23:32:06.591-05:002016-02-14T23:32:06.591-05:00This program makes sense for some micro problems: ...This program makes sense for some micro problems: well defined outcome spaces, few driving factors, large data sets.<br /><br />However, it's bound to fail for macro. Unless economists themselves dump the complexity and focus on issues of parsimony and robustness. Little hope for that, though. You guys should teach some basics from machine learning and especially the distinction between bias and variance and the dangers of fit in small samples. They are relatively simple and should inoculate students against majority of macro research.<br /><br />Acemoglu stuff looks quite promising, but the heterodox one is utter BS: dynamics, institution? Say hello to (politically motivated) overfit.Krzyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15794655390770135247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-62540855725929524532016-02-14T21:06:28.068-05:002016-02-14T21:06:28.068-05:00I’ve tried to avoid the marketing shtick, but here...I’ve tried to avoid the marketing shtick, but here it’s unavoidable. You may not like my intro macro textbook for lots of other reasons, but you should look at it just to see how I integrate empirics and theory. After the first third of the book, which is largely descriptive about the macroeconomic world, macro institutions and everyday macropolicy, the next section dives into a fairly standard simplistic Keynesian model. But it’s treated empirically! I show how a simple linear consumption function can be fitted to data and how out of sample data can be used to test it. In fact, a simple linear model of national income determination can be fitted in a series of steps the same way, something I always do as a lab exercise for the students. And every subsequent theoretical development is treated as an empirical proposition, with the simplest possible time series methods.<br /><br />I am totally with Noah on this: economics should be a lab science from the ground up. Teach elementary empirical methods along with elementary theory, not in parallel but together, each enriching the other.<br /><br />Incidentally, the politics of making economics a lab science are different from chemistry, biology etc. In the natural sciences most of the basic ideas have been nailed down empirically for decades or centuries, so students validate the theory by doing the empirics correctly. Not so economics. But that’s OK, since encouraging a critical, open-minded attitude is a good thing in an unsettled discipline.Peter Dormanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00093399591393648071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-59609994973840572652016-02-14T20:59:04.860-05:002016-02-14T20:59:04.860-05:00And don't forget simulation software. Netlogo ...And don't forget simulation software. Netlogo is good, for instance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-65416283088316647182016-02-14T20:53:28.017-05:002016-02-14T20:53:28.017-05:00As for statistics at the undergraduate level, why ...As for statistics at the undergraduate level, why should statistics be a prerequisite for introductory economics? Here is how to deal with statistics for students who have not taken a course yet. Make use of the interocular traumatic method. Any statistical result that has a large enough effect will have a presentation, usually a graph, that hits the student right between the eyes. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-21848746332660761982016-02-14T18:53:22.253-05:002016-02-14T18:53:22.253-05:00Most large colleges have multiple sections of Econ...Most large colleges have multiple sections of Econ 101, why not have a section for students with better math skills. Back in the day, when I was a student, I was taught Econ 101 without calculus. Did I learn the core concepts as well, probably better since I couldn't just treat problems as math problemsnclangwiserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02891962986194342956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-25236339107149548552016-02-14T18:50:30.257-05:002016-02-14T18:50:30.257-05:00There aren't a lot of examples with data in Kr...There aren't a lot of examples with data in Krugman and Wells's or Mankiw's intro books, and I agree there should be. One question though: which empirical results would you include?<br /><br />I could see e.g. Vernon Smith's experimental results for micro, but would there be any macro results that 1) test a theory that is at the undergraduate level 2) use stats methods at the undergraduate level?Jason Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12680061127040420047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-16126226248481234932016-02-14T18:39:02.731-05:002016-02-14T18:39:02.731-05:00Sadly all the big hedge fund guys seem intent on g...Sadly all the big hedge fund guys seem intent on giving money to existing universities, the tech bazillionaires seem intent on giving their money to help Africa and such, and the oil barons seem intent on using their money for pol'tics. Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-89685797800960283452016-02-14T18:28:14.997-05:002016-02-14T18:28:14.997-05:00Hmm, I'll try to meet some.Hmm, I'll try to meet some. Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-91830161382967537502016-02-14T18:25:09.710-05:002016-02-14T18:25:09.710-05:00Do you know some rich people who could start a uni...Do you know some rich people who could start a university?Steve Williamsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16629774961390533020noreply@blogger.com