tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post1210890349234816687..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: New Atlantic piece: How to beat global warmingNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-27250965065925779302012-10-01T14:12:48.774-04:002012-10-01T14:12:48.774-04:00It's left out because it's very hard to me...It's left out because it's very hard to measure the amount of methane leakage generated by fracking. I believe there was a Cornell study which attempted to estimate it. The error bars on it are huge.<br /><br />It is, however, always a mistake to ignore something simply because you can't estimate it accurately.<br /><br />--NathanaelAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-21740598778994271152012-09-24T15:51:49.009-04:002012-09-24T15:51:49.009-04:00The LCAs for thermoplastics (recyclable with a sim...The LCAs for thermoplastics (recyclable with a simple melt for non-processed parts), a fraction of a barrel that could be the whole barrel if we want, they don't encompass marginal GWP (global warming potential). And some thing are chunky. You only renovate your insulation every few years at very most. So if thermoplastics keep improving or if you want to kill your glass or metal part early, in both instances this acts to shorten the lifetime of your thermoplastic product. I would like to see a carbon price (even if not directly charged it could still be used for subsidizing new shock wave reactors and such) that rises in booms and lowers in recessions (vice versa for a cap), to be politically viable.<br />So as the rate of improvement of thermoplastics lessens, then is when it is most economical to buy the part.The Keystone Garternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-16045579551165793172012-09-21T12:15:07.610-04:002012-09-21T12:15:07.610-04:00Unrelated.
Just saw your twitter about the top fi...Unrelated.<br /><br />Just saw your twitter about the top five evil regimes.<br /><br />I noted that you included the CSA because of slavery.<br /><br />I think you should reconsider that:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_slave_trade#New_World_destinations<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_Brazil#The_end_of_slavery<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Senhora_escravos_1860.jpgArthurhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16882185097545470347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-22891293033537732802012-09-19T19:33:10.004-04:002012-09-19T19:33:10.004-04:00Also, to put it in a nice concise way, solar panel...Also, to put it in a nice concise way, solar panels are like TIPS. They're an inflation indexed fixed income-like long term bond -- except that with the tax spiffs, in some areas they pay a vastly higher return than TIPS. And they're a non-positional good. They can be a great investment. Again, more at the posts I cited above..Richard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-42686422702445892572012-09-19T19:14:22.039-04:002012-09-19T19:14:22.039-04:00Nuclear: Great. However, it'll take a lot of t...Nuclear: Great. However, it'll take a lot of time and money...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-85444781880899207072012-09-19T18:58:23.681-04:002012-09-19T18:58:23.681-04:00"electricity from solar panels now costs less..."electricity from solar panels now costs less than twice as much as electricity from coal, and only about three times as much as electricity from gas."<br /><br />But in large parts of the country, solar costs much less than this. I've heard of cases in my home state, Arizona, where solar panels pay for themselves in less than five years with the tax spiffs. Even in the same place, southern facing panels produce a lot more electricity.<br /><br />I have two posts on solar panels that I think make important points not heard, especially with regard to the risk-return pecuniary aspect of an investment (solar panels are a very low risk, dependable investment for one's personal finance). They're at:<br /><br />http://richardhserlin.blogspot.com/2012/03/unique-personal-financeinvestment.html <br /><br />http://richardhserlin.blogspot.com/2012/03/solar-panels-new-safety-net.html <br /><br />Also, what about nuclear as a big bridge? From my knowledge, it seems like we should have much more (smart, well done) nuclear (and more research on how to do it safer and cheaper).Richard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-32160672322703238252012-09-19T11:16:24.803-04:002012-09-19T11:16:24.803-04:00I agree, but how do we measure this? Is this in th...I agree, but how do we measure this? Is this in the "carbon emissions" figures, or is it left out?Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-57661733552376288142012-09-19T10:46:04.624-04:002012-09-19T10:46:04.624-04:00Noah, I your writing on climate change is interest...Noah, I your writing on climate change is interesting, but you don't seem to have addressed that the environmental problem is Greenhouse Gases, not CO2 in particular. Because fracking releases methane (which has a @20 times stronger greenhouse effect), using natural gas may have little effect on climate change and may be worse for us if the climate system reaches a tipping point. I'd love to hear what you think.Sam Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-60462641666757746262012-09-18T17:24:12.262-04:002012-09-18T17:24:12.262-04:00Is a carbon tax so politically impossible? You kno...Is a carbon tax so politically impossible? You know the US better than me, but EU fuel taxes are vastly higher than the US, about double. And Germany has gas prices about double the US, but runs a trade surplus,so it's not obvious that carbon taxes cause industry to migrate. Sorry, can't link to source. Lukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14014996272817759191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-45670204935440351162012-09-18T15:16:38.686-04:002012-09-18T15:16:38.686-04:00Newton's First Law of Motion states: An object...Newton's First Law of Motion states: An object at rest will remain at rest, or, if in motion, will continue in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.<br /><br />This law implies that absent friction (the outside force), an object in motion will continue in motion forever.<br /><br />A corollary of the First Law is that, absent friction, ZERO ENERGY is required to move.<br /><br />Friction can be reduced to a negligible amount by the use of roller bearings. The coefficient of rolling friction is ~.0018. http://www.roymech.co.uk/Useful_Tables/Tribology/Bearing%20Friction.html<br /><br />A moving object has energy equal to ½ mv^2 This kinetic energy must be removed for the object to stop. The kinetic energy of a moving object may be captured and stored as potential energy of gravity for later use with ~100% efficiency by rolling uphill. Note that (almost) no energy is lost to heat, light, noise, etc.<br /><br />I assert: There is no more efficient or robust method of moving from point A to point B than rolling down a ramp from A down to B. I assume that A is at a higher gravitational potential than B, and the difference in gravitational potential energy is greater than the energy losses due to rolling friction and air resistance traveling from A to B.<br /><br />The United States expended 27 quadrillion BTUs of energy on transportation in 2011. http://cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb31/Edition31_Chapter02.pdf<br /><br />Question: If zero energy is required to move, why then are we expending such a great amount of energy on transportation?<br /><br />The perfect transportation system is a roller coaster. Stations are elevated. Trains roll down ramps leading from the stations; They coast toward the next station, perhaps along a slightly declined route. They need no motors. The roll up the ramps leading to the next station; they need no brakes. They WILL NEVER GET AS HIGH AS THEY STARTED, they will have to be dragged up the final portion into the next station; this is not perpetual motion. Energy must continually be added to the system to replace frictional loses. Note that the design is for efficiency, not thrills. The slopes can be quite gentle.<br /><br />Why do we not have such a system? Answer: History is not commutative. In baseball, a single preceding a home run:-> score = 2; a home run preceding a single-> score =1. Arrival at a train station before train leaves -> no problem. Train leaves before arrival at station -> problem.<br /><br />If the tapered roller bearing had been perfected before the steam engine, this is what we would be doing.<br /><br />Note that if Pharaoh Ramses had the roller bearing, he could have caused to be constructed at transportation system that would make Amtrak look sick.<br /><br />Why drill for oil, if we can roll down hill?<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />Hugh Loebner, Ph.D.<br /><br />http://loebner.net http://loebnerprize.org http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_LoebnerHugh Loebnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15683603328486815478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-53576007858758972952012-09-18T13:59:25.351-04:002012-09-18T13:59:25.351-04:00Truer words were never spoken!Truer words were never spoken!Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43917236373277745432012-09-18T12:01:11.067-04:002012-09-18T12:01:11.067-04:00Haha okay! Just to make things clear. It's not...Haha okay! Just to make things clear. It's not always easy to read how & what people mean on the internet. Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-48099049063416977432012-09-18T09:57:03.085-04:002012-09-18T09:57:03.085-04:00Also, as I read you here above, are you not compar...<i>Also, as I read you here above, are you not comparing the short-run effects of a carbon tax to the medium to long-run effects of what you proposed to do in The Atlantic? <br />For a carbon tax in the USA also sets incentives to innovate for those producing for the US-market and adopt new technology with less carbon-emissions such as solar and natural gas.</i><br /><br />Actually, no! I think a carbon tax, even imposed unilaterally, would be a good thing to do. In particular, it would increase research incentives for private companies. My main point about carbon taxes is (and has always has been) that they are <i>politically infeasible</i>; the fact that the benefits are global while the cost is local has, it seems to me, so far proven an insurmountable barrier to getting carbon taxes passed in major emission-producing nations, and that doesn't seem likely to change soon.<br /><br /><i>Finally and for the record, I would like to make clear that I did not post the comment under "anonymous". If that's what you meant with "OK, fine, Martin. You got me. I can't resist".</i><br /><br />Haha. Yes, I realize you are not a troll. Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-73536447147699548882012-09-18T06:59:04.313-04:002012-09-18T06:59:04.313-04:00Okay, I understand what you meant then; I read you...Okay, I understand what you meant then; I read you as that the big problem was that companies would migrate, rather than that companies in other countries would increase their usage due to a lower price. <br /><br />I read you as being worried about the migration of companies because of this sentence here: <br /><br />"or else carbon-emitting activity will just migrate to whichever country has the weakest standards (in the process, hollowing out the economies of the countries with high carbon taxes)"<br /><br />and in particular due to the part between the brackets. <br /><br />Also, as I read you here above, are you not comparing the short-run effects of a carbon tax to the medium to long-run effects of what you proposed to do in The Atlantic? <br />For a carbon tax in the USA also sets incentives to innovate for those producing for the US-market and adopt new technology with less carbon-emissions such as solar and natural gas. <br /><br />Finally and for the record, I would like to make clear that I did not post the comment under "anonymous". If that's what you meant with "OK, fine, Martin. You got me. I can't resist". Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-86244534247231217472012-09-18T01:35:20.996-04:002012-09-18T01:35:20.996-04:00That's interesting...I'll have to take a c...That's interesting...I'll have to take a closer look at both this study and the Lu et al. study. Thanks.<br /><br />I wouldn't so quickly dismiss solar, though.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-39451142902521500612012-09-18T01:20:44.968-04:002012-09-18T01:20:44.968-04:00And if all else fails use a high altitude ballon t...And if all else fails use a high altitude ballon to erect a mylar tube into the upper atmosphere injecting sulpher dioxide particles similar to what the eruption of Kraktoa did in the 1880s. (tongue in cheek...sort of)Rothosenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11174050121839506764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-23820487433119917622012-09-18T00:26:46.417-04:002012-09-18T00:26:46.417-04:00Economists seem to be downright horrible at doing ...Economists seem to be downright horrible at doing a thorough analysis when talking about the environment, and I'm sorry to say, this piece strikes me as more of the same. The entire article rests on the assumption that NG is a "bridge" to some low carbon future, but a different analysis suggests otherwise:<br /><br />"Natural gas cannot be credited with the reductions in the US CO2 emissions observed in the last half-decade. Most reductions, nearly 90%, were caused by the decline in petroleum use, displacement of coal by mostly non-price factors, and its replacement by wind, hydro and other renewables. Where low price of natural gas saved some CO2 by displacing coal, it was quickly offset by its increased use in other sectors—highlighting the pitfall of justifying the current market for natural gas as a “bridge” or an interim phase of transition towards clean energy." (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/07/651821/shale-gas-and-the-fairy-tale-of-its-co2-reductions/). <br /><br />Then there's the analysis of the solar industry and your assumption that something that provides a tiny fraction of today's energy is going to seriously compete with cheap NG and coal on a time frame that doesn't involve frying the planet. <br /><br />Optimism = wishful thinking. Stick to writing about macro please. <br /><br /> <br />Kevin Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01375533876006350089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-35631206776267328882012-09-17T23:17:02.284-04:002012-09-17T23:17:02.284-04:00OK, fine, Martin. You got me. I can't resist. ...OK, fine, Martin. You got me. I can't resist. But in the future you should really start working these examples out for yourself instead of asking me...<br /><br />There are two reasons why a carbon tax with import taxes will not do a lot to prevent global warming.<br /><br />Reason 1: Price. A reduction in U.S. demand for fossil fuels will lower the price of those fuels in other countries, causing greater usage in those countries. This will mean that the reduction in emissions in the U.S. is more than the global reduction in emissions. And global emissions are all that matters.<br /><br />Reason 2: Nonlinearity of the externality. If the U.S. and all its fossil fuels vanished from the Earth tomorrow, the Earth would still be in big trouble from emissions.<br /><br />Now if the U.S. were really small, only the second reason would apply. If the U.S. were really big, then a carbon tax would probably be more politically feasible.<br /><br />How's that?Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-51299092911371861812012-09-17T23:00:35.410-04:002012-09-17T23:00:35.410-04:00I have a regular column at the Atlantic now. Did y...I have a regular column at the Atlantic now. Did you see the first two, about high-skilled immigration, and paternalism vs. fat?Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-47683303791257587522012-09-17T22:59:41.830-04:002012-09-17T22:59:41.830-04:00At current costs, the balance of the system costs ...<i>At current costs, the balance of the system costs more than the panels: design, permitting, land, construction, power transmission and interconnection, end of life costs. In total, these costs can only go up, as the cheap sites near population centres are used first.</i><br /><br />Actually I believe most of those costs are now coming down...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-82065514734814404382012-09-17T22:56:46.262-04:002012-09-17T22:56:46.262-04:00No hostility! I just don't have the time to sp...No hostility! I just don't have the time to spell out these simple problems for you...you are perfectly capable of answering your own question. ;)<br /><br />And yes, there is a good answer.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-68797383724235907822012-09-17T21:13:19.068-04:002012-09-17T21:13:19.068-04:00Let's not even talk about solar power in Europ...Let's not even talk about solar power in Europe, because... <br /><br />here's some (official) data: in 2009, solar power in EU-27 countries accounted for 1,7% of the total renewable power production in EU-27 countries - renewable energies themselves accounting for 18,3% share of total energy production. <br /><br />I let you make the count of the importance of solar power in total energy production of the 27 countries of the EU.<br /><br />How about having each dollar used to drill "frackable" natural gas/nuclear energy leading to a dollar spent in research on renewable energies? <br /><br />Source : Eurostat : <br /><br />http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Primary_production_of_renewable_energy,_1999_and_2009.png&filetimestamp=20111124103234 <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-61556744234711659712012-09-17T21:00:22.048-04:002012-09-17T21:00:22.048-04:00"I'm from the economics profession, and I..."I'm from the economics profession, and I'm here to help."<br /><br />How : "just think, man".<br /><br />Thank you. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-87680813120273096462012-09-17T20:53:12.074-04:002012-09-17T20:53:12.074-04:00"Solar is now so advanced that Germany, altho..."Solar is now so advanced that Germany, although it is cutting subsidies, is installing capacity at a breakneck pace"<br /><br />This is misleading, too. Germany has _announced_ that it will cut "subsidies" in 2014. The subsidy is a guaranteed price of IIRC about 70 cents per kWh produced, for the life of the installation. <br /><br />_Of course_ there's a rush to get on the gravy train before it leaves the station.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-9002038547733965282012-09-17T20:52:21.578-04:002012-09-17T20:52:21.578-04:00What is dramatic, IMO, in your piece, is the whole...What is dramatic, IMO, in your piece, is the whole gap which separates USA with Europe.<br /><br />Someone (Huntington, was it?) once grabbed from the big trash-can of history of ideas (out of which diamonds as sh... gets out) that idea of a "clash of civilization". <br /><br />Some politicians, in the whole world, took hold of this concept.<br /><br />Actually, IMO, there is no "clash" ; but there is a big, very big misunderstanding, between European countries & the US about the way to confront climate change (assuming "European countries" and "the US" want to solve this ; of course, like you say, the "bad guys", East Coast or West Coast, don't care...).<br /><br />This is apparent in your thorough defense of "fracking" natural gas. According to you: environmentalists, instead of freacking out (sic), should try to get the risks down. <br /><br />I thought that firms were doing (claiming to do) that. But...<br /><br />What about having the companies giving public their magic formulaes to take out their gas? <br /><br />Which data are you supporting yourself on to say that extracting, or "fracking", natural gas, produces less emissions leading to climate change? <br /><br />Democracy needs free, & public, information. That starts with data. If you don't have data, we're all making wild guess. Perhaps that's a motive to be optimist. I rather not bet on that, for (God's)(my children)(my honour)'s sake ! <br /><br />And for data purposes, saying that " That is what is now happening with gas displacing coal. " is true only, and only for, the USA. Which is very important, but is quite far away from being universal. <br /><br />Nuclear power is still very important (alas, and despite Tchernobyl, Three Miles Island, Fukushima, & lots of other "incidents" and casual deaths).<br /><br />Cheers, to your optimism! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com