tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post1263471898931376109..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Some thoughts on UBI, jobs, and dignityNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-27420223054200581792017-04-15T22:51:14.037-04:002017-04-15T22:51:14.037-04:00"talking up UBI takes time and attention away..."talking up UBI takes time and attention away from talking up JG and other pro-employment policies."<br /><br />But UBI is a pro employment policy in the broadest sense! And probably more suited for the job than JG, given the trajectory that the role of human labor is on. It's trending towards people increasingly working for customers that don't yet know that they might be customer to something new and cool. That's the world of work of creativity, chance taking.<br /><br />That said, I don't mind to give to the most creatively bankrupt, a gentle lie so they might feel needed, even if they don't try to figure something new and cool out that might not ever become popular. As much as I'm not a fan of lying to people, and think that people generally can contribute without a JG scheme to tell em what to do, given the awesome tools available online, and opportunities in local communities or at home.Hayuuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01055173492639837167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-26056903001774341002017-02-08T09:46:38.628-05:002017-02-08T09:46:38.628-05:00"I wonder what these same people would do, if..."I wonder what these same people would do, if society determines that these same folks add no value to the social order anymore."<br /><br />No individual is so valuable society can't decide that anyway. And only very large groups can credibly be said to be that (economically) valuable. And even then, there have been plenty of times and places in the world where society decided anyway that they weren't, and found out the hard way how wrong they were.<br /><br />I think that the people who pursue "useless" degrees are not the same people who are struggling. I think that people in this generation are just as diligent as ours in goal-setting and seeking out an education in "a field with a future", if not more. It's just that most futures are overall worse.<br /><br />I am lucky enough to know how to code and train a neural net, I'm not afraid of any Terminator. People don't appreciate how complete control we have over learning algorithms' goals and training. <br /><br />If you're afraid of computers, you should be terrified of dogs. Unlike with computers, dogs' objectives were set by evolution and are only capriciously aligned with ours. Their training too! They get a stream of sensory data all day long, only a small fraction we have any control over. Who knows how they interpret it and what they learn from it. And yet, you probably aren't worried that your dog will tear out your throat while you sleep.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-81681718817309247882017-01-07T13:32:49.033-05:002017-01-07T13:32:49.033-05:00One thing in the UBI camp is that money is fungibl...One thing in the UBI camp is that money is fungible whereas jobs are not. <br /><br />Presumably, not all jobs are equally dignity-inducing. Otherwise, there wouldn't be child labor laws, people wouldn't switch jobs in the basis of anything other than compensation, etc. "Make work" is viewed as a negative term for a reason.<br /><br />I might agree in the abstract that guaranteeing everyone a job that gives them opportunities to feel useful, like their work is valuable, to grow as a person, etc would be better than a UGI.<br /><br />But, someone has to design and rollout those jobs. They have to deal with the range of talents and abilities across the population. I suspect that creating a dignity-enhancing jobs gets harder, not easier, at scale.<br /><br />Handing out cash has logistical problems too. But at the end of the day, it's an easier thing to do.The Verbiage Ecstaticnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-10339268265330166112017-01-06T23:13:16.119-05:002017-01-06T23:13:16.119-05:00Thank you for this. The solution to today's il...Thank you for this. The solution to today's ills requires a complete reworking of traditional thought processes. Sadly, most experts remain locked into the same tired and ineffective institutional mindset that enabled the current crisis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-26928451051502677972017-01-05T15:16:34.906-05:002017-01-05T15:16:34.906-05:00Anon2 the welfare trap us about marginal effective...Anon2 the welfare trap us about marginal effective tax rates on the poor from diminishing subsidies and benefits. A Ubi isn't dependent on not working or making less money so if it replaced welfare the effective marginal tax rate on the poor would drop.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-38197284584399832452017-01-05T10:23:31.275-05:002017-01-05T10:23:31.275-05:00I don't think the word "work" has be...I don't think the word "work" has been very well defined here. I wouldn't think that "laboring" in and of itself creates dignity. Rather, I suspect that the sense of self-worth stems from the fact that your time is, literally, worth something - someone was willing to pay you to use "something you own," in this case your time or efforts, but so called "passive income" is the same thing - it's "rent" for the use of something you own.<br /><br />Now in the case of Alaska, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that each resident owns a share of the oil resources contained within the state - thus, they're entitled to get paid for the use of that asset.<br /><br />While the crude an Alaskan oil worker draws from the ground may be a "collective asset," he still retains private ownership of his time and effort. If you tax the income he earns from that time and use it to pay for defense, roads, etc., well, that's still private ownership. However, if you put those taxes into some sort of "fund" as Bruenig suggests, though, then you've done something considerably more radical - you've converted his time into a public asset, that is, you've actually eliminated the concept of "private ownership," which based on the post I believe to be Bruenig's intent.Steve S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/15276218411346368617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-42787213699760314792017-01-04T19:05:55.685-05:002017-01-04T19:05:55.685-05:00I wonder what fraction of commenters have dignifie...I wonder what fraction of commenters have dignified jobs that involve sitting in chairs and playing with computers or attending meetings all day? Work is in the eye of the beholder.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16117038742077458192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-54317747085449854302017-01-04T19:01:33.156-05:002017-01-04T19:01:33.156-05:00Really? I think a fair number of jobs exist only ...Really? I think a fair number of jobs exist only due to legislative action and people go to them and earn a living for their families without complaint.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16117038742077458192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-45916964876188599332017-01-04T18:51:50.083-05:002017-01-04T18:51:50.083-05:00Stolen from taxpayers? Please... All money event...Stolen from taxpayers? Please... All money eventually goes back to where it came from. Banks. Are you a thief if you take out a mortgage?<br /><br />Money, in the large, IS a mutually owned resource. Is it any different to create money and build a bridge or create money and give to a person to build a home or buy a car?Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16117038742077458192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-37591367318823255282017-01-04T10:19:45.916-05:002017-01-04T10:19:45.916-05:00There's an incredibly strong desire for "...There's an incredibly strong desire for "fairness" in this country, to the point where many Republicans are motivated by the perception of unfairly good treatment of minorities.<br /><br />Therefore, the only way a UBI would work politically would be as a "dividend" paid to everyone equally, and the only way to get it past the deficit/budget hawks would be if it was a relatively small amount of money AND replaced the existing welfare/food stamps program.<br /><br />A Job Guarantee, as I see it, would work differently (but might also replace welfare). If you need work, you apply online, and the government assigns you to a job that needs doing (much like the Army does). It might be child care, it might be construction, it might be picking trash up off the side of the roads. You don't get to choose, and what you get paid would be the prevailing wage for the job. Given the nature of the ruling majority, turning down the job would probably make you ineligible for any government benefits going forward.<br /><br />Of the two, I think a Job Guarantee Program would be much, much more of a political possibility than a UBI.Bob & Angelahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02673748788667868927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-45585264659538878662017-01-04T00:27:15.551-05:002017-01-04T00:27:15.551-05:00If people currently largely derive dignity from wo...If people currently largely derive dignity from work, seems to me the thing to do is teach them a better source of dignity. Dignity from freedom! Dignity from play! Dignity from amateurism and personal projects!<br /><br />I mean, it's a little ridiculous, right? "I don't have people telling me what to do all day and getting in the way of the things I want to do. How <i>undignified</i>." I would say the opposite -- it's being told what to do all day and not being able to do what you want that's undignified.<br /><br />I say: Do what you want, and derive dignity from that! Take up writing, or woodworking, or mathematics, or Super Smash Bros., or car repair, or baseball, or, hell, I don't know, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DB_drag_racing" rel="nofollow">dB drag racing</a>. Maybe having someone telling you what to do if you can't think of things to do yourself, but for anyone who has an idea what they want to do with their life, who wants to get good at something or make something great or break some records, having to have a job just gets in the way.<br /><br />I mean, sure, everyone wants to contribute. But it's a mistake to conflate that work that someone pays you for. There's plenty of work being done out there that nobody pays for. Me, I've got no academic position -- job market's hard right now, you know -- but I'm an active mathematician anyway, and nobody's paying me to do that.<br /><br />Now not everyone can do mathematics. But you know what else I do? I help update the spoiler list on a well-known Magic: The Gathering website. Nobody's paying me to do that! But that's basically just data entry; it doesn't exactly invole much in the way of choices, and it's not exactly skilled labor. I do it because I honestly want to help keep the list up to date. I'm sure there's plenty of other meaningful work out there to do that can bring dignity but not a wage, and that you'd be have plenty of time to do if you had UBI.<br /><br />So, that's my answer to the dignity problem. Not: "The government is giving me money even though I'm not doing anything awesome productive", but rather, "The government is giving me money so that <i>I can afford to take the time</i> to do things that are awesome or productive". Rather than earning money doing what someone else tells you, you can put your money towards your personal projects.<br /><br />In short, the answer, IMO, is not to cling to dignity from professionalism, but to embrace dignity from amateurism.Sniffnoynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-39594785572306067952017-01-03T15:10:09.797-05:002017-01-03T15:10:09.797-05:00That's kind of like saying that poets get way ...That's kind of like saying that poets get way too much mileage out of the idea that "things are like other things". There has always been a market for the output--including opinions--of people they deem to be sufficiently credentialed/qualified and articulate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-80877025598579032542017-01-03T14:43:10.683-05:002017-01-03T14:43:10.683-05:00Anon, to reduce the Welfare Trap you couldn't ...Anon, to reduce the Welfare Trap you couldn't have a universal basic income. What you'd have to have is a guarantee for working people that if they're willing to put in a certain number of hours per week (month, year, whatever) they'll receive a certain amount of money. Basically, you'd have something like the EITC, except paid out over time rather than as a lump sum. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-70777991897328217032017-01-03T14:39:28.717-05:002017-01-03T14:39:28.717-05:00Alaska is a tricky example. The people seem to der...Alaska is a tricky example. The people seem to derive some of their dignity from simply living there. You'd need an experiment somewhere utterly unremarkable.<br /><br />Your comparative valuation point is a good one. Though I'd offer that people often rely on historical valuations as well. These can overlap with social values, but can also be rather benign. In 1966, my grandmother could never dream of buying a $50,000 mansion, but she'd insist today that the same place wasn't worth $500,000.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-4950859655074491812017-01-03T12:16:26.868-05:002017-01-03T12:16:26.868-05:00Seems to me that the reason there are jobs not bei...Seems to me that the reason there are jobs not being filled is that the populace is ill equipped to fill these jobs due to lack of training or proper relevant education. If there are going to be more robots and automation in industry, then there will be more need of skilled workers who are able to implement, maintain and update the systems under which they run. This means that spending $60000+ on a some garden variety of liberal arts degree is not going to enhance one's employ-ability. I teach upper level math in HS. From my witness in the classroom, the prevailing attitude toward procuring the skills necessary to succeed is noncommittal to nonexistent because it is "too hard" or "too much" work or even "it does not interest me". People with these life views are already comfortable with the notion of not working hard for much of anything. This puts them on par with livestock as they really do no want to really make any real contribution to themselves never mind society. Efforts to push STEM careers are vigorous but ignored by the majority. However, that is where the "good jobs" of the future are for the most part. Yes, there will be still need for police, service workers (less so in the future), tradesmen, etc. But if it is to break the cycle of minimum wage employment, one must do something to break the inertia of stand still and doing nothing. When I was younger and struggling like many do today, I evaluated what was relevant in terms of needed job skills and "where the work was" and followed through on a plan to make myself ready and relevant to pursue a career that would eventually provide much more than the Maslow minimum. So many people day dream and "plan" for a future without "getting action" involved. This is the principal ingredient in any plan coming to fruition. "Getting Action" is a phrase the Theodore Roosevelt used to describe his own personal initiative in motivating himself to do the work he needed in order accomplish his goals. Truth be told, most people have no real goals or do much to set themselves above the concern shown by most "cattle". Our ability to choose and take action is the very thing that sets humans above livestock. It is tragic that many people are content with letting society care for them. I wonder what these same people would do, if society determines that these same folks add no value to the social order anymore. Many a sci-fi book and film projects their prognosis for the future under this premise. Let's consider "Soylent Green" or "Terminator".Midpointhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04755461083616049158noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-30679935635941548272017-01-03T09:10:21.515-05:002017-01-03T09:10:21.515-05:00You're wrong.
first, if you were familiar wit...You're wrong.<br /><br />first, if you were familiar with the JG literature at all, you would know that your first question has been answered literally thousands of times--the core proposal is always that a JG is offered to anyone that wants it. <br /><br />second, in the sense that I am discussing here--costs, macroeconomic impact (particularly inflation and macro stabilization)--your other questions are not anywhere near as important for JG as for UBI. The number of PhDs, engineers, and so forth, unemployed is virtually never large enough that this would matter in the sense I am discussing here. There are differing views within the JG literature on whether there should be tiers of payments based on skill, but it is not overly significant to the cost and macroeconomic impacts of the proposal (as I have defined them here). (This isn't to say that it is not an important issue, of course.) STFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261666934714196464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-24790213702348513992017-01-03T08:59:49.552-05:002017-01-03T08:59:49.552-05:00One piece of evidence is that blue collar workers ...One piece of evidence is that blue collar workers seem to die younger if they retire younger. Retirement should not reduce dignity much which points to boredom and lank of social interaction. http://freakonomics.com/2012/03/29/early-retirement-bad-for-your-health/JWOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00004178958481335795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-52297067272567860402017-01-03T04:26:23.693-05:002017-01-03T04:26:23.693-05:00A job guarantee raises the same questions as UBI. ...A job guarantee raises the same questions as UBI. Is that a job guarantee per person, or is it just for high school educated adults? Do elementary school dropouts get different job payments than PhDs?<br />csimmonshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06029023149384608409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-71558666652543877572017-01-03T04:11:13.071-05:002017-01-03T04:11:13.071-05:00Arguably, and more so historically, housewives hav...Arguably, and more so historically, housewives have received passive income without loss of dignity. Also children.<br /><br />Coercing people to work by threatening them with starvation seems evil.<br /><br />The resources required for a UBI are minimal: food, housing, clothing, minimal health care. If you commit a crime, we will provide this for you.csimmonshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06029023149384608409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-2404430768985759272017-01-02T17:31:16.233-05:002017-01-02T17:31:16.233-05:00My concern about UBI is that over time, as people ...My concern about UBI is that over time, as people leave the labor pool they will become politically disenfranchised. When the economy doesn't depend on a given class of people, there's less incentive for political leaders to pay attention to their needs. <br /><br />The extreme example of this is dictatorships where all the wealth comes from natural resource extraction - leaders of such states who spend any of that money helping ordinary people aren't likely to stay in power very long, because their ability to stay in power depends on keeping the army and the industrialists happy and well-fed, not the masses.Talinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11160561365552764247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-22696689962731293022017-01-02T15:06:42.784-05:002017-01-02T15:06:42.784-05:00A benefit of UBI is it could actually reduce the &...A benefit of UBI is it could actually reduce the "Welfare Trap" where people are disincentivized from working because for each dollar they earn they lose more than a dollar of benefits.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-1082841495583851522017-01-02T13:12:10.686-05:002017-01-02T13:12:10.686-05:00We need to define what is meant by UBI here. Is i...We need to define what is meant by UBI here. Is it some "dividend" that adds up to only about 10% of a living wage, like in Alaska? Is it about 1/2 or less of a living wage, like in Finland? Is it $10k (about 1/3 of a living wage)? Is it a living wage? Is it universal for every person? Is there an adjustment down for children? Is it provided to those on SS? Is it going to be "funded" in some way, or just raise the deficit? Answers to these questions have huge implications for how the program should be evaluated--if UBI is about 3% of GDP (like an Alaska-style dividend), that's a lot different than if it's 50% of GDP (living wage per person). Even $1000/month for 200 million people is about 12% of GDP--or 1/2 of total federal govt spending.<br /><br />A job guarantee is much simpler on that score--even the most generous programs wouldn't be much more than 5% of GDP for a rich country like the US (and less generous programs, like $10/hour for 20 million people on average, would be about 2.5% of US GDP). And peak spending on the program would be only at the bottom of a recession, while the JG spending would decline as the economy moved into expansion and be at its lowest point across the business cycle at the cycle's high point (that is, a well-designed JG has its own built-in macro stabilizer).STFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261666934714196464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-55301166511836526402017-01-02T12:48:21.252-05:002017-01-02T12:48:21.252-05:00And yet, job openings in the aggregate are always ...And yet, job openings in the aggregate are always well below job seekers. Go look at the data. It's particularly clear if you look at U6 vs. job openings. The closest job openings get is to a bit more than 1/2 of the total job seekers in the case of U6, in 2000. And that doesn't even account for varying distributions of skills, locations, etc., of job seekers vs. job openings. Finally, there's no contradiction in needing to train and needing to provide jobs.STFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261666934714196464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-76483234935215769422017-01-02T11:45:37.141-05:002017-01-02T11:45:37.141-05:00...and your recommended substitute(s)? :-)...and your recommended substitute(s)? :-)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05172794072417280086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-61687553082824349102017-01-02T11:38:15.986-05:002017-01-02T11:38:15.986-05:00You mention that programs cost money and big progr...You mention that programs cost money and big programs cost lots of money. You should mention also that as a monetary sovereign the United States needs not issue any debt to 'fund' its operations. As a sovereign it can issue liquidity directly into the economy, say for a job guarantee program. Inflation will come about where there are resource constraints. And even that inflation will survive only if their are monopolies. Otherwise competition will force supply to catch up with demand. As it stands now, our debt based financial scheme amounts to a subsidy of the wealthy and the companies they own and control, including private banks of course. By the taxpayer who is on the hook for final funding. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com