tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post3809222867241230637..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Survey expectations - some more evidenceNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-56933594035452265292015-07-28T17:36:04.385-04:002015-07-28T17:36:04.385-04:00Anonymous,
The DSSW results were based on mathema...Anonymous,<br /><br />The DSSW results were based on mathematical models.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-39624412027760293662015-07-28T17:34:46.728-04:002015-07-28T17:34:46.728-04:00A'mous,
40 years wandering around lost in a f...A'mous,<br /><br />40 years wandering around lost in a fool's paradise is coming to its biblical end.<br /><br />HenryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-11612525890262026772015-07-28T17:22:16.516-04:002015-07-28T17:22:16.516-04:00It is for mathematicians.
Henry.It is for mathematicians.<br /><br /><br />Henry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-11980234481964649002015-07-28T17:21:25.489-04:002015-07-28T17:21:25.489-04:00"Well done guys, you've defeated math.&qu..."Well done guys, you've defeated math."<br /><br />Math has been the victim of its own self inflicted demise.<br /><br /><br />HenryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-69274717985306043912015-07-28T13:39:40.520-04:002015-07-28T13:39:40.520-04:00The problem with the criticism of ratex is treatin...The problem with the criticism of ratex is treating it as a behavioral description as opposed to parsimonious specification of the problem. Replacing ratex with random behavioral patterns will give you much curve fitting pleasure with little information.Krzyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15794655390770135247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-55756025533626699002015-07-28T13:33:03.220-04:002015-07-28T13:33:03.220-04:00Curve fitting is so much fun, especially if you wa...Curve fitting is so much fun, especially if you want to justify whatever you want to justify.Krzyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15794655390770135247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-51460106356545555132015-07-28T13:23:33.189-04:002015-07-28T13:23:33.189-04:00"early 90s" not "early 80s" S..."early 90s" not "early 80s" Such papers would have been unpublishable in leading journals in the early 80s prior to the 87 crash and prior to Fischer Blackj's "Noise" speech to the AFA in 1986, when ratex was riding at its intellectual highest.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-51670723987756682012015-07-28T13:21:53.237-04:002015-07-28T13:21:53.237-04:00pithcom,
This was the old argument by Milton Fri...pithcom, <br /><br />This was the old argument by Milton Friedman as to why floating exchange rates would be more stable than fixed ones, something that has not proven to be true.<br /><br />There were a series of papers published in several leading journals back in the early 80s by DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldman that laid out how a "noise trader" could do better than a "rational expectations investor." Basically it boils down to some people really do know how to chase a bubble and get out at its peak. Many will be driven out, but some will end up as the richest guys on the block, e.g. Bernard Baruch and Joseph P. Kennedy back in 1929 (the old story on Baruch was that he sold all his stocks when his shoeshine boy started giving him stock tips).rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-26472472961700762582015-07-28T11:48:06.306-04:002015-07-28T11:48:06.306-04:00Dr. Smith,
Before 2008 people invested rather tha...Dr. Smith,<br /><br />Before 2008 people invested rather than saved because investing paid profits. After 2008 investing paid considerably less profits and thus saving became more profitable (either in the form of actual bank deposits of some sort or paying down debt).<br /><br />It is not complicated.David de los Angeleshttp://daviddelosangelesbuendia.tumblr.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-56919304752979064952015-07-28T08:05:54.137-04:002015-07-28T08:05:54.137-04:00A'mous,
"Yes, Greg Ransom is retarded. S...A'mous,<br /><br />"Yes, Greg Ransom is retarded. So are Richard Serlin and John D. and Robert Vienneau and all the other crackpots who pollute economics blogs with asshat comments. "<br /><br />http://www.econjobrumors.com/topic/is-greg-ransom-autisticretrarded<br /><br />It seems you have a habit of repeating yourself every three years.<br /><br /><br />HenryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-50455075864294336212015-07-28T07:00:09.709-04:002015-07-28T07:00:09.709-04:00Hey A'mous,
What else is the internet for?
R...Hey A'mous,<br /><br />What else is the internet for?<br /><br />RE - talk about the revenge of the nerds.<br /><br />It's been a great 40 years.<br /><br />Or not.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />Henry<br /><br />P.S. Still waiting for that productivity data.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-6690140212709312752015-07-28T05:42:49.166-04:002015-07-28T05:42:49.166-04:00Both Henry and pithom, despite disagreeing with ea...Both Henry and pithom, despite disagreeing with each other completely, still both managed to be completely wrong. Well done guys, you've defeated math.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-38122258738465959182015-07-28T05:40:07.819-04:002015-07-28T05:40:07.819-04:00Well, if Henry says it must be true. Even without...Well, if Henry says it must be true. Even without evidence. Good thing he's around to tell us how to do things, otherwise we'd be totally lost.<br /><br />Or, not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43452258706915001622015-07-28T05:38:08.936-04:002015-07-28T05:38:08.936-04:00I see Henry has taken up the mantle of such noted ...I see Henry has taken up the mantle of such noted crackpots as John D, Greg Ransom, Robert Vienneau, and Richard Serlin in making unsubstantiated assertions on the Internet. Good for you, Henry, you'll really show them now! Your internet outrage is unbounded and powerful!<br /><br />Or, not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-42536450185779261722015-07-28T05:35:11.127-04:002015-07-28T05:35:11.127-04:00Since it appears pithom does not know this, NGDP i...Since it appears pithom does not know this, NGDP is not a real object. It is nominal -- see, it is right there in the name. Gads, you're dim.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-23156671262194289192015-07-27T19:11:30.645-04:002015-07-27T19:11:30.645-04:00"wouldn't emotions and irrationality be q..."wouldn't emotions and irrationality be quickly weeded out by market forces?"<br /><br />Not necessarily - not if "market forces" were driven by the same emotions and irrationalities. <br /><br />You guys just won't give up the notion that the real world resides in a neoclassical thought bubble.<br /><br />Henry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-71377435588654073332015-07-27T18:55:16.688-04:002015-07-27T18:55:16.688-04:00rosser, wouldn't emotions and irrationality be...rosser, wouldn't emotions and irrationality be quickly weeded out by market forces?pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-36770064590281986812015-07-27T16:43:20.602-04:002015-07-27T16:43:20.602-04:00Do you like me or are you ignoring me?Do you like me or are you ignoring me?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-5516627874468680412015-07-27T14:17:37.007-04:002015-07-27T14:17:37.007-04:00My suggestion is to ignore Rosser. He likes to com...My suggestion is to ignore Rosser. He likes to come here to blow sunshine up his backside. And you're right, he seems to be trying to not engage your points at all. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-22895991781195669902015-07-26T22:30:07.900-04:002015-07-26T22:30:07.900-04:00BTW, both Minsky and Kindleberger simply eschewed ...BTW, both Minsky and Kindleberger simply eschewed the language of "rationality" versus "irrationality" in either its simple-minded ratex form or in some fancier psychological form. They did assume that people trade to a substantial degree on their emotional states, and that such states can contagiously pervade entire markets, and that indeed there is a natural progression of those states over time in markets subject to speculation, which they laid out.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-46352635909951365842015-07-26T20:28:50.244-04:002015-07-26T20:28:50.244-04:00HFG,
What Tom is criticizing the use of the term ...HFG,<br /><br />What Tom is criticizing the use of the term "rational expectations" by economists. I do not think he knows how the term is used. Telling us here that psychologists have more complicated views about what constitutes rationality or that what may look like irrationality is really ignorance is not a revelation. Rational expectations actually has nothing to say whatsoever about the internal states of mind of people. It simply says that on average they accurately forecast the future, keeping in mind that this may mean that they never actually succeed in accurately forecasting the future.<br /><br />While it is true that some bubbles do not end in crashes and some sudden falls in price reflect sudden changes in fundamentals, the crashes I was talking about (1987 and 1929) most certainly came at the end of bubbles.<br /><br />OK, I shall grant that Tom did allow for the possibility of some higher rate of emotionalism during bubbles, but his claim that nobody could develop a theory of bubbles based on such irrationality is simply wrong, although I grant that these are not formal mathematical theories. He should read Kindleberger and Minsky in particular, as I have already suggested. They present it, and one of the most mathematically sophisticated of students of bubbles (and also an emormously successful trader as we have learned since his death) Paul Samuelson thinks Kindleberger beats everybody on how to think about bubbles.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-87230931249026016842015-07-26T19:16:26.635-04:002015-07-26T19:16:26.635-04:00But you do indeed miss his point.
Tom did not say...But you do indeed miss his point.<br /><br />Tom did not say that “investors do not get more emotional during speculative bubbles,” as you just asserted.<br /><br />His statement was qualified to begin with, and clarified later:<br /><br />“When I said buyers are not much more emotional during bubbles than at other times, that's what I meant. I'm allowing that they could be on average somewhat more driven by emotion.”<br /><br />You are attacking a straw man (also conflating bubbles with crashes), and ignoring Tom’s point. Do you see a way to defend rational expectations theory from Tom’s very elementary criticism?HFGhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behaviorismnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-70462026988210861402015-07-26T19:07:32.566-04:002015-07-26T19:07:32.566-04:00Thanks, Tom. Your points regarding the meaning of ...Thanks, Tom. Your points regarding the meaning of “rational” are obviously true, but judging by the reactions, the obvious apparently needs to be stated.<br /><br />Speaking of psychology, the history of Skinner’s “behaviorism” makes a nice counterpoint. In that intellectual bubble, supposed scientists got themselves into a methodological snarl that led them to deny the idea of thinking itself -- the very opposite of believing in a near god-like rationality. Behaviorism was a bizarre, retrograde episode in the social sciences, on a par with recent macroeconomics, though less destructive. Both were driven by an attempt to avoid confronting the complexity and messiness of actual human thought.HFGhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behaviorismnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-48113395261166998352015-07-26T18:35:02.448-04:002015-07-26T18:35:02.448-04:00Barry,
The people who do economics these days are...Barry,<br /><br />The people who do economics these days are trained essentially as mathematicians. Nowadays economic insight in economics is virtually absent. RE was an abstraction formulated by diverted engineers and econometricians and mathematicians.<br /><br />HenryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-53017504649940753422015-07-26T17:34:04.356-04:002015-07-26T17:34:04.356-04:00Tom,
I could go on a bit, but here is just one p...Tom,<br /><br />I could go on a bit, but here is just one point. You claim that investors do not get more emotional during speculative bubbles. You provided no evidence, just your assertion, although presumably this is drawn on your own anecdotal experience trading. Not good enough. I noted studies showing you were wrong. You made no effort to respond to that, simply asserting that I am missing your point and that you "know both bubbles and panics very well," presumably from your vast experience of trading. Not ood enough, and you are wrong.<br /><br />So, just one reference, although there are others,<br /><br />Robert J. Shiller and John Pound, "Survey evidence of diffusion of interest among institutional investors," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,1989, 12, 47-66. They were studying behavior in the 1987 stock market crash, the largest single day drop ever, and maybe you have never seen emotionalism in markets, but they certainly did, and there are plenty of reports of it from the 1929 crash, even if the tales of people jumping out of windows on Wall Street were exaggerations.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.com