tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post4605102915057803848..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Predicting China's inevitable slowdownNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-34949107472471046012011-03-24T23:57:52.614-04:002011-03-24T23:57:52.614-04:00Presumably the secular trend involves a relatively...Presumably the secular trend involves a relatively slow diminishment of growth rates over time. The reality is unlikely to be so slow: most rapidly growing economies, like China, have experienced sharp, sometimes severe, recessions along the path to a slower pace of growth. They recover, of course, and growth continues at a rapid, but more mild pace than before.<br /><br /> But, in the moment, the severity of recession can cause great distress and motivate political reform or upheaval.<br /><br /> The many reports of dislocation in the Chinese economy and lagging institutional development suggest to my mind that China may be in for a particularly severe growth-recession.<br /><br /> Perhaps, Eichengreen, as a student of the Great Depression, was reaching for the timing of such a downshift recession? While the World Bank was casting the runes on the secular trend without considering the downshift-recession at all?Bruce Wilderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09631065564839959376noreply@blogger.com