tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post4869092453274850442..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: "Act of God" EconomicsNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-42984307565885171882011-02-13T21:21:16.848-05:002011-02-13T21:21:16.848-05:00Cowen ignores the fact that agriculture and manufa...Cowen ignores the fact that agriculture and manufacturing have been growing more and more efficient as part of a long term trend since the mid 19th century, and this trend has been continuing. When I bought a new washing machine recently, I learned that there were only a handful of manufacturers left, and not because it had been outsourced to China. A bit of research revealed a manufacturing efficiency increase of a factor of four in the 90s led the the industry consolidation. If you look at the percentage of American workers in manufacturing, it has been falling in a straight line since the 1950s (from nearly 30% to less than 10%).<br /><br />Agriculture did the same thing, but in the 19th century. Still, the US was half rural in 1920. The growth of manufacturing helped sop up some of the displaced agricultural workers, but we all know what eventually happened. The gap between what could be produced and what could be purchased grew, and that led to the Great Depression.<br /><br />Cowen is wrong. Productivity has continued to rise. When was the last time you deposited a hand signed paycheck with a human teller? At the supermarket, the guys with boxes now have scanners and get finished much more quickly. In fact, the manufacturers often hire them as specialists who go from store to store. We've hit another production consumption gap, and as in the 30s, everyone is in big denial.<br /><br />The fix was to come up with an excuse to pay people more. Well, they dismantled that in the 80s which is when the GDP share / median income divergence really took off. Cowen is just one of those "God put everyone in his or her station" people, and considering him or his ilk as anything else is, at best, naive.Kaleberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05283840743310507878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-34295321375561032992011-02-13T02:18:23.428-05:002011-02-13T02:18:23.428-05:00I find it very odd you attribute Cowen's views...I find it very odd you attribute Cowen's views to libertarianism, since he has repeatedly remarked that his <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2011/02/why_are_free_ma.html" rel="nofollow">free-market colleagues</a> are the most skeptical of his theory (though he thinks their ideology should make them more receptive). And of course these colleagues are pretty much all more libertarian than he.TGGPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11017651009634767649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-48897722119112183282011-02-08T23:30:22.509-05:002011-02-08T23:30:22.509-05:00"can't libertarian economists do better t..."can't libertarian economists do better than this"<br /><br />No. And they have no incentive to try, since they get "wingnut welfare" to support increasing the spread between median and mean.Ken Houghtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01440837287933536370noreply@blogger.com