tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post5323561395911359180..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: How is Abenomics doing?Noah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-27657245848873160532013-03-11T08:51:24.949-04:002013-03-11T08:51:24.949-04:00I'm a bit baffled by this. I thought the 90s ...I'm a bit baffled by this. I thought the 90s was a great time economically, and I swear inflation was at least 3% in that decade. Why and when did 2% become the 11th commandment that no Central Banker shall ever cross? JCrowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07352035124393989280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-33320381823708306152013-03-10T23:20:13.148-04:002013-03-10T23:20:13.148-04:00With regard to low inflation targets, like our 2%,...With regard to low inflation targets, like our 2%, I've lately started thinking of the analogy of standing really close to a very dangerous and deep pit, like just 2 feet (or 2 percent) away. It's pretty easy for a tremor or other disturbance to make you fall in, get hurt severely, and have it take a long time before you can climb out. <br /><br />So, as the cost is not that high to stand further away, like 4 or 5 feet (or percent, and that was considered a low percent not that long ago), isn't that the smart, preventative medicine, thing to do? <br /><br />It's widely acknowledged how dangerous the ZLB is, yet your target is to stand super close to it, so it's easy to fall into it? Richard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-2882204506649438562013-03-10T17:51:43.399-04:002013-03-10T17:51:43.399-04:00I don't really understand your refrain about t...I don't really understand your refrain about the exchange rate. Are you saying that in a liquidity trap domestic prices won't rise to offset the exchange rate effect? <br /><br />It seems to me that the exchange rate is rising because people are expecting domestic prices to rise, in which case there wouldn't be an export boom. That's not to say that higher inflation wouldn't be expansionary though.Matthew Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10254244795963585737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-6322619349503889262013-03-10T13:36:15.678-04:002013-03-10T13:36:15.678-04:00Stock rallies probably signal a belief that invest...Stock rallies probably signal a belief that investors think market monetarism works (and that Hugo Chavez kinda sucked). But how much does it signal about economic strength? Greek stocks have steadily increased in face of a floundering economy. Of course, over a long period, stock and economic growth are pretty correlated, but not today.<br /><br />Anyway... Here's to Nikkei 36000. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-73481462283458689712013-03-10T13:02:48.663-04:002013-03-10T13:02:48.663-04:00See also: All other rich countries...See also: All other rich countries...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-62426957732073768512013-03-10T11:23:47.309-04:002013-03-10T11:23:47.309-04:00Great analysis.
I was a believer (in Abe) before...Great analysis. <br /><br />I was a believer (in Abe) before I read this. Now...not so much.<br />It's pretty worrisome, though. He seems much more preoccupied with tweaking China's nose then fixing the economy. <br /><br />Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-17230715993011051652013-03-10T07:32:32.963-04:002013-03-10T07:32:32.963-04:00My favorite Bulgarian proverb - "the crazy kn...My favorite Bulgarian proverb - "the crazy knows no rest".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-26603944685594517012013-03-10T07:29:54.021-04:002013-03-10T07:29:54.021-04:00Yes, why assume Abe will be like the rest and aban...Yes, why assume Abe will be like the rest and abandon stimulus? Because all the rest are the same.<br /><br />Politicians seem to try very hard to defend their broken austerity policies, often losing their jobs in the process and they seem give up on successful stimulus attempts just after the good news come in. Please provide me an example of the opposite.<br /><br />But I still don't understand why does stimulus actually require more persistence than stimulus. The only arrogant explanation I have is that politicians don't actually look at or trust the the data.Dimitarhttp://lazyfairyecon.tumblr.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-20496616881802557772013-03-10T00:04:33.534-05:002013-03-10T00:04:33.534-05:00So the retiree voters have more or less locked the...So the retiree voters have more or less locked the country in a largely deflationary set-up that benefits them and screws up everyone else? That's pretty messed up. Bretthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05741738070067590221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-34346451114778314672013-03-09T22:41:50.691-05:002013-03-09T22:41:50.691-05:00Not sure if it's all an elaborate bluff...I th...Not sure if it's all an elaborate bluff...I think if Abe's smart enough to talk down the yen, he's also smart enough to use monetary policy to do it if talking down fails. The issue may not be close to heart, but it's already been a very successful political tool and helped him up to 70%+ approval, so why not run with it?<br /><br />He'll be met with political resistance for sure, but the electoral success gives him a mandate. And LDP wins in the upper house will give him *more* power to go through with it, not less. <br /><br />Even retiree voters and a nervous public may not be enough to stop him, because he probably cares about what business interests want even more. And as we've seen with constitutional reform, he's more than comfortable going against the public's stated interests. The decimation of the DPJ gives him security anyway.jjrsnoreply@blogger.com