tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post6324781117893112713..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Will Abe address Japan's number one problem after all?Noah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-8039207434485502272013-06-21T23:30:17.079-04:002013-06-21T23:30:17.079-04:00I'm also wondering why women in Japan who don&...I'm also wondering why women in Japan who don't work don't have kids. They may not have money but they have time (to cook, etc). Or maybe they just don't want to have kids. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-84256164396154940612013-06-03T03:43:38.642-04:002013-06-03T03:43:38.642-04:00I would just add something on a side aspect of you...I would just add something on a side aspect of your blog entry, about the french and swedish approach to gender equality, which maybe could be relabeled as european actually: Women in Europe have historically gained their position during both WWI and II, because, as the warfare took men out of their positions, women had to work to sustain their families. Moreover, in the particular case of France, women had a role in the fight against the occupation, and the people who took over the power in the aftemath of the WWII were often from this group, which resutlted in our "conseil national de la resistance" political program, which lays at the basis of most of our social benefits today.Javinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-89081708965467959862013-05-15T00:25:06.817-04:002013-05-15T00:25:06.817-04:00"Japan's protected economy, heavily subsi..."Japan's protected economy, heavily subsidized "zombie" companies, and weak corporate governance insulate it from the Beckerian free market forces that probably helped advance gender equality in the U.S. in the 80s and 90s."<br /><br />That's a rather bazaar non-sequitor. "Free markets" have nothing to do with gender equality, and markets function quite comfortably with brutal gender inequities. The difference is that the US had massive feminist movement that radically altered America's conceptions of gender roles and forced through government legislation to help equalize power between genders. Japan's radical social movements were crushed first by the American occupation shortly after WWII, when the US through General MacArthur forced Japan at gunpoint to fire and ban all socialists and communists from elected office and civil service. MacArthur also banned the Socialist and Communist parties, helping rehabilitate the Fascists and Nazi-collaborators MacArthur had just defeated. This had a long-term impact on the politics of Japan and precluded the kind of left-wing social movements that, funnily enough, would help capitalism now.Calvin Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17624125675718808522noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-15384324989122344412013-05-09T09:52:02.699-04:002013-05-09T09:52:02.699-04:00I'm sure you already read Krugman's take o...I'm sure you already read Krugman's take on this, but thought it would be worth posting up here since it seems relevant:<br />http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/09/the-moral-equivalent-of-space-aliens/<br /><br />(I would have posted the FT article he linked/referenced, but didn't have access to read it, so wasn't able to verify the contents...)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-85162269785261559702013-05-04T11:24:07.466-04:002013-05-04T11:24:07.466-04:00Replying to Leon:
"Back to meta: it's pr...Replying to Leon:<br /><br />"Back to meta: it's pretty clear you'd benefit from a course on development economics. One of the most best policies to decrease fertility to increase resource transfers/educational opportunities for women. There are about a billion papers on this, and it's sad that development economics has faded from graduate econ education so much that these didn't immediately spring to your mind when you wrote this post."<br /><br />This is dead wrong. That discussion applies to poor countries with sky-high fertility rates, not to rich countries with fertility rates well below replacement. That the same policy leads to radically different results shouldn't be a surprise.<br /><br />On a related note, France has been successful by running multiple, effective policies, one of which was flat rate cash payments to parents raising children. The DPJ tried this in Japan, and it was wildly unpopular. Even people who should have known better complained that the rich didn't need/deserve the money and the poor would just spend it on gambling. No matter how much you explain that progressive taxation means that rich folks are paying serious money in taxation and are small in number, so the administrative cost of figuring out family income and indexing payments would be on the same order of magnitude as the savings, and you could just make tax rates a bit more progressive to collect the money back from the rich; and no matter how much you explain that punishing a whole group for the sins of some of its members is very evil, it just doesn't get through peoples heads. Sigh.<br /><br />And then the DPJ imploded. Sigh, again. Being both a progressive and a Japan observer leads to severe depression. Sigh.<br />David J. Littleboyhttp://www.pbase.com/davidjlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-46951080985937923122013-05-03T03:16:19.361-04:002013-05-03T03:16:19.361-04:00This is a good piece of information on the role of...This is a good piece of information on the role of women in Japan's workforce. One would have expected that in an advanced country like Japan, the lot of women would be different from what is reported here. Well, I wish the womenfolk all the best as they march on to get their rightful place.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14893549018487941366noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-1407362891378343822013-05-02T22:10:55.981-04:002013-05-02T22:10:55.981-04:00"the tradeoff between working and having chil..."the tradeoff between working and having children"<br /><br />So there *is* a causal mechanism. I didn't deny that there could be a way to weaken or even reverse this effect. But, as you noted, such a change requires some policy efforts plus (probably) change in mindset of the people, and shouldn't be regarded as some universal rule which single scatter graph can serve as a proof.himaginaryhttp://himaginary.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-21080806672760846572013-05-01T08:30:27.340-04:002013-05-01T08:30:27.340-04:00You didn't fully understand the first paper yo...You didn't fully understand the first paper you linked to... I think this quote from it explains what people are talking about.<br /><br /><i>Furthermore, the presence of country effects implies that possibly cross-country differences in public policies or labor market institutions might have caused high fertility and high female employment in some countries and low fertility and low female employment in other countries.</i> <br />The country effects, which are skimmed over in the summary of that paper, are actually the important part of the discussion here on this thread. What Noah is talking about is rearranging policy and institutions in Japan. And presumably the tradeoff between working and having children would then be less drastic (and then presumably more women get to choose both.) I think it's pretty obvious that in developed countries where it's made easier to work and have children, more women will choose to work, and more women will choose to have children. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-49190025747655786232013-04-29T07:11:08.510-04:002013-04-29T07:11:08.510-04:00The OECD report summary on 'Closing the Gender...The OECD report summary on 'Closing the Gender Gap: Act Now" makes it sound like the OECD forecast for improvement in Japan on this issue is a baseline forecast (ie. not dependent on Abe).<br /><br />http://www.oecd.org/gender/Closing%20the%20Gender%20Gap%20-%20Japan%20FINAL.pdf<br /><br />the last sentence of the summary: "...gender parity in labour force participation is projected to increase GDP in Japan by almost 20% over the next 20 years."<br /><br />The summary statistics in the report do seem to support your point that Japan is an extreme outlier in the developed world and does indeed have a two tier labor force.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15136541075745913165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-11870094449602787062013-04-29T05:08:50.361-04:002013-04-29T05:08:50.361-04:00"it does disprove your causal mechanism"..."it does disprove your causal mechanism"<br /><br />According to the following paper, it doesn't.<br />http://www.demogr.mpg.de/publications%5Cfiles%5C880_1068055127_1_PDF-Version.pdf<br /><br />via http://www.u-tokai.ac.jp/undergraduate/political_science_and_eco/kiyou/index/pdf/2011/06_kojima.pdf (Sorry, in Japanese except abstract)himaginaryhttp://himaginary.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-63930087770748623172013-04-28T13:01:29.347-04:002013-04-28T13:01:29.347-04:00If only one parent is working then there is less m...If only one parent is working then there is less money to pay for kids and less kids. If both parents can work then there is more money to pay for kids and more kids. <br /><br />I am not an economist so cannot link to graphs, but isn't that what it boils down too?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43922887731913903062013-04-28T12:59:17.327-04:002013-04-28T12:59:17.327-04:00I've also seen papers linking higher female pa...I've also seen papers linking higher female participation in labour force with increased birth rate.<br /><br />If you want to have high female participation rates in labour forces and have fertility rates at above replacement level then you need to ensure that women are not discouraged from having kids.<br /><br />Improvemnts in childcare, healthcare, more encouragement to have children and greater emphasis on a shared role in the house are all part of the solution.<br /><br />In Europe these measures have been haltingly introduced. Certainly more so than Japan and the USA but that is maybe not hard. Halting reform is the by word and very few European states have made real efforts to create societies which facilitate to the greatest extent possible the having of children by their citizens.<br /><br />Like Japan most European states ignored the old fashioned practices and current social conditions which discouraged young couples and especially women from having a second child or even a third.<br /><br />Instead of reforming society Europe opted for immigration to boost birth rates but that didnt remove the obstacles. Philhttp://noahpinionblog.blogspot.nl/2013/04/will-abe-address-japans-number-one.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-13452551345314103302013-04-28T00:14:44.269-04:002013-04-28T00:14:44.269-04:00Thanks to you too! Glad you liked the Django post....Thanks to you too! Glad you liked the Django post...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-45761420550161529442013-04-28T00:12:28.045-04:002013-04-28T00:12:28.045-04:00exactly! if that's what it takes to remove th...exactly! if that's what it takes to remove the two-tiered structure you talked about in this piece, I'm all for it :)<br /><br />btw, love reading your posts on this topic (and, I gotta admit, that Django Unchained one was genius - passed that around - as a Notherner, it FINALLY gave voice to a lot of items that have been bothering me for a while)- it doesn't really get any coverage (from what I normally read), so reading your analysis and breakdowns on it are fascinating. Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-31473523862852232512013-04-28T00:09:00.512-04:002013-04-28T00:09:00.512-04:00This seems likely to me. But if so, more power to ...This seems likely to me. But if so, more power to him!<br /><br />I'm kind of a Japanese nationalist too...in my own way. ;-)Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43751659566488619952013-04-28T00:06:50.516-04:002013-04-28T00:06:50.516-04:00I wonder if part of what's behind Abe's th...I wonder if part of what's behind Abe's thinking is that he's MORE interested in Japan regaining overall dominance (or at least a highly prominent, if not pre-eminent, role) on the world stage more than he is about retaining the "traditional role of women" in Japan. Not to say that they're still not huge players, but that there's this creeping sense that China's right about to overshadow them and they'll be left in the dust. Add in South Korea's ascendance, North Korea still making noises (and these are all just regionally), I get the sense that there's this innate paranoia among the Japanese that they'll be relegated to the back of the class.<br /><br />Partially, I'm basing this off of your previous posts on Abe as a supreme nationalist. With all the other stuff looming, maybe it seems to him that the only way to get Japan back on the heap for good is to engage ALL of Japan in the effort. Maybe he's a utilitarian nationalist and that's overriding any other concerns...<br /><br />*just throwing that out there*Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-75678637584414152712013-04-27T23:34:01.285-04:002013-04-27T23:34:01.285-04:00These are the roots of Japan's problems. Nothi...<i>These are the roots of Japan's problems. Nothing will change until these issues are addressed. Everything else--Abenomics, more women on boards--is window dressing in comparison.</i><br /><br />This may be true. Not sure, though. <br /><br />I do suspect that the only thing that will force these companies to change is a Japanese sovereign default.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-39156110899755335662013-04-27T23:31:54.732-04:002013-04-27T23:31:54.732-04:00Hey Leon, your comments were tl;dr, but check this...Hey Leon, your comments were tl;dr, but check this out:<br /><br />http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2006/04/the_economist_a.htmlNoah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-85610322016051199872013-04-27T23:30:51.292-04:002013-04-27T23:30:51.292-04:00Same relatively low female work-force participatio...<i>Same relatively low female work-force participation rate, though.</i><br /><br />That's true!! I didn't know that. So maybe Taiwan could also raise its fertility by increasing women's labor force participation.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-79374046165909134132013-04-27T23:29:33.891-04:002013-04-27T23:29:33.891-04:00He is right that, if your goal is dealing with fer...<i>He is right that, if your goal is dealing with fertility rates, putting women to work is counterproductive.</i><br /><br />Actually, he and you appear to be the diametric opposite of right (i.e., wrong):<br /><br />http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2006/04/the_economist_a.html<br /><br />Now, correlation doesn't equal causation, but it does disprove your causal mechanism. Looks like you lose.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-39129504400503524042013-04-27T22:13:38.311-04:002013-04-27T22:13:38.311-04:00"Japan's protected economy, heavily subsi..."Japan's protected economy, heavily subsidized 'zombie' companies"<br /><br />These are the roots of Japan's problems. Nothing will change until these issues are addressed. Everything else--Abenomics, more women on boards--is window dressing in comparison.<br /><br />You've lived in Japan, so you know how staying hours after work until your boss leaves is commonly accepted. This is an enormous drain on national productivity (and I don't care about official stats on how American workers work more hours, you and I know that leaving early--ie on time!--is a huge no-no in Japanese work culture). <br /><br />But how can such an inefficient system persist? B/c of the lack of competition for workers. There's no cost to employers for discriminating against women or tacitly mandating useless overtime when everyone else is doing it, or when profits don't matter because you can perpetually get the banks to evergreen your loans.<br /><br />Japan needs to open the doors to foreign competition <b>and</b> subject its firms to market discipline (by getting rid of subsidies and zombie credit). This will solve a range of problems, from discrimination in the workplace to forcing the restructuring of corporate disaster-zones like Sony and Panasonic.<br /><br />John Snoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-84782156980899472972013-04-27T22:08:58.546-04:002013-04-27T22:08:58.546-04:00Your model is effective if you want to increase fe...Your model is effective if you want to increase female labor force participation. Since he doesn't consider that a problem, you solution doesn't apply. He is right that, if your goal is dealing with fertility rates, putting women to work is counterproductive.mojrimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03416999187677478475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-82661654247240671982013-04-27T21:58:42.673-04:002013-04-27T21:58:42.673-04:00@Noah
Well, Taiwan scores very high in the gender...@Noah<br /><br /><em>Well, Taiwan scores very high in the gender equality rankings (above the U.S.), so I wouldn't be so sure of that...</em><br /><br />Same relatively low female work-force participation rate, though.Bretthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05741738070067590221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-72935740491237141072013-04-27T19:51:26.482-04:002013-04-27T19:51:26.482-04:00Probably not, but we can hope!Probably not, but we can hope!Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-61553394749498503012013-04-27T19:50:54.633-04:002013-04-27T19:50:54.633-04:00However, it's surprising you're so skeptic...<i>However, it's surprising you're so skeptical about formalized macro models and so trusting of informal demographic models.</i><br /><br />Oh, I'm not. But since increasing women's equality is a great thing to do anyway, we should do it, and also hope that the fertility success of France and Sweden can be reproduced.<br /><br /><i>It made me think of Rothbard's quote</i><br /><br />Nothing ever makes me think of Rothbard's quote about anything, since I've never read Rothbard...I attribute much of my clear-headed rationality to that fact... ;-)<br /><br />BTW, I'm not really sure I understand most of the rest of what you're saying...<br />Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.com