tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post7541805783582763475..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: How to beat RussiaNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-50132840645637374842014-08-01T13:04:29.355-04:002014-08-01T13:04:29.355-04:00U are k now ingly naughty Noah, and u know it. ...U are k now ingly naughty Noah, and u know it. acronym N.N.N.and u NoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-66444198611970976682014-07-31T16:43:19.061-04:002014-07-31T16:43:19.061-04:00If Russia wants to waste its resources dominating ...If Russia wants to waste its resources dominating the politics of its neighbors, how does that damage US interests? This isn't the cold war, when one could argue with a straight face about dominoes falling and the threat of global communism. The costs of making damn sure we stop Russia (i.e. going beyond sanctions to arm pro-western groups or even engage our military) are pretty high (potentially catastrophic if they spark a nuclear exchange) and the benefits are hard to see.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-62824464393119755242014-07-29T00:27:24.943-04:002014-07-29T00:27:24.943-04:00Bush did not promise Gorbachov that NATO wouldn...Bush did not promise Gorbachov that NATO wouldn't advance east. After Baker made some statements to that effect, Bush directly and unequivocally rejected them.<br /><br />Either way, it's not up to Russia to decide what alliances independent countries like Poland or the Baltics would be allowed to join. Krzyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15794655390770135247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-56188022478749062152014-07-29T00:24:06.185-04:002014-07-29T00:24:06.185-04:00This is a very good and informed take on the situ...This is a very good and informed take on the situation.<br /><br />The imperial ambition of Russia are plain to see. We don't need any stupid adventures a'la Iraq, but we do need resolve when our principles are clearly threatened. Putin represents a big challenge to the order we established in Europe and which brought peace, stability, freedom and wealth.<br /><br />The behavior of Obama and especially of the European leaders is just disgraceful.Krzyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15794655390770135247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43942950527459765442014-07-28T15:45:54.587-04:002014-07-28T15:45:54.587-04:00"Another option is to welcome mass immigratio..."Another option is to welcome mass immigration from Russia, thus decreasing the size and power of the Russian ethnic group in the long term."<br /><br />This is like a stereotypical evil Jewish plot that the far-right everywhere likes to shout about, you know. At the very least, don't give them ammunition.<br /><br />Overall: that's some shitty analysis!Multiheadednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-80646826411412207492014-07-28T02:39:10.141-04:002014-07-28T02:39:10.141-04:00For the record, bakho, I would like to see Svoboda...For the record, bakho, I would like to see Svoboda out of the Ukrainian government. But this is a foreign invasion in the eastern Ukraine. Unfortunately, defeating a heavily armed foreign invasion generally ends up with collateral damage.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-5361110414012961482014-07-27T18:29:06.353-04:002014-07-27T18:29:06.353-04:00Anonymous, if you read only one side of many facet...Anonymous, if you read only one side of many facets story you come away ignorant and influenced by confirmation bias. I did not assert that anyone is "right," just that geopolicy is many faceted. Each of the facets reflects its own interests and spin (propaganda). The challenge is to read between the lines. <br /><br />Same in economics. There are different schools of thought with different approaches. Claiming that one is "orthodox" and the others are "heterodox"is another instance of confirmation bias.<br /><br />In intelligence, analysts sift through mountains of data to try to penetrate the fog of bias.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-48301807215069453202014-07-27T17:25:43.981-04:002014-07-27T17:25:43.981-04:00Why not model Putin and Saddam Hussein as "re...Why not model Putin and Saddam Hussein as "representative agents" in your optimization model? Rational or near rational behavior?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-11979531948221752182014-07-27T16:47:17.989-04:002014-07-27T16:47:17.989-04:00Ukraine: Unguided Rockets Killing Civilians
http:/...Ukraine: Unguided Rockets Killing Civilians<br />http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/07/24/ukraine-unguided-rockets-killing-civilians<br /><br />I just know what Human Rights Watch is Reporting.<br /><br />Maybe Foreign Policy Magazine is spreading lies about the role of Svoboda in the government?<br />http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/18/yes_there_are_bad_guys_in_the_ukrainian_government<br /><br />The US is getting the same one-sided story we got in 2002 about Iraq.bakhohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16472764185459425186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-32891027951471201482014-07-27T15:59:53.624-04:002014-07-27T15:59:53.624-04:00Mocks Noah for being an academic, quotes even more...Mocks Noah for being an academic, quotes even more obscure and irrelevant academic drible interlaced with anti-American writings of an obscure -- but popular with the RT crowd for his anti-Americanism -- journalist. Classic Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-84643222703803351492014-07-27T15:55:38.347-04:002014-07-27T15:55:38.347-04:00Way to earn your 10 rubles comrade. Way to earn your 10 rubles comrade. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-65827886120379814702014-07-27T14:36:28.262-04:002014-07-27T14:36:28.262-04:00Putin is simply a NIMBI («not in my back yard, ame...Putin is simply a NIMBI («not in my back yard, americans»). And someone with an idea of what to do with his country - and hence to protect it from foreign interference -, unlike Obama and the majority of European leaders.<br /><br />The US has touched with bone in the East. <br /><br />This crisis has been sparked by the fascist Ukrainian militia helped cheerfully by American leaders and its puppet, the EU, especially through the neo-expansionist German foreign policy in Europe, its back yard. Not only they ousted the democratically elected president of Ukraine (not a single word of this fact in the happy-flowers pro-American-rhetoric article), but they also put in front of the Ukrainian government a group of fascists whose aim was, in their own words, «to exterminate the Russian minority».<br /><br />But in Europe (yes, in Western Europe, too, in the «developed Europe»), there are still many people who is not silly enough to believe in everything what Uncle Sam says.<br /><br />Go home America, go home.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-45148834362205994002014-07-27T14:12:06.420-04:002014-07-27T14:12:06.420-04:00You seen to have set up a straw Ukraine to object ...You seen to have set up a straw Ukraine to object to. The current interim government is full of ethnic minorities, Arsen Avakov (interiour) is Armenian, Pavel Klimkin (foreign affairs) is Russian, the guy who probably will become interim PM Groysman is Jewish (already appointed, not yet approved), the chairwoman of the Central Bank is Russian.<br /><br />And Svoboda is a low-performing party election-wise - its biggest success was 10% at the polls and a few mayors. <br /><br />I don't why I even bother to reply about this, the part of "bomb their own citizens" shows how strong the derp is.Dimitarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14817426354343784512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-54643101219355052992014-07-27T14:07:00.843-04:002014-07-27T14:07:00.843-04:00Ultimately this comes down to a question of charac...Ultimately this comes down to a question of character. If you're a Kennedy Democrat, a person of character who believes that America has a moral duty to lead the free world, you'll be pushing to do more to help Ukraine.<br /><br />If you're a devoted Obama Democrat, with no clear idea of America's role in the world but a lot of the sort of loyalty to your leader that a junior chimp feels for his favored Alpha, then you'll be engaged in stretched and convoluted reasoning that attempts to dress up inaction as wisdom. Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-31756139784259989412014-07-27T14:01:45.173-04:002014-07-27T14:01:45.173-04:00bakho you're spreading lies. The Ukrainian gov...bakho you're spreading lies. The Ukrainian government is not bombing its own citizens.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-32892833637379079382014-07-27T13:26:59.446-04:002014-07-27T13:26:59.446-04:00Could someone please next time Paul Krugman lectur...Could someone please next time Paul Krugman lectures about the Iraq War say "where is your model".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-90900037128573211232014-07-27T13:25:01.189-04:002014-07-27T13:25:01.189-04:00I find it interesting that Noah Smith and Paul Kru...I find it interesting that Noah Smith and Paul Krugman seem to think you need optimization models to understand economics. But when it comes to international relations they pontificate without any model at all. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-41628580939456340992014-07-27T13:01:00.316-04:002014-07-27T13:01:00.316-04:00I did not claim that Putin or the Russian Mafia ar...I did not claim that Putin or the Russian Mafia are progressive. They can be brutal and repressive. <br /><br />I do object to viewing right wing Nationalist hate groups as legitimate. They need to be marginalized and their view made unwelcome much as it is in the US. Svoboda is not nice, threaten other ethnic groups and while they may have toned down the rhetoric recently, they get their support from the promotion of ethnic dominance (Official language, lack of local autonomy, against compromise with other ethnic groups.) Svoboda is a minor party, and not all Ukrainians are as intolerant, but the Ukrainian elite are willing to tolerate their hate, their divisive language and invite them into government. <br /><br />The Republicans in Mississippi don't promote violence against blacks but they tolerate NeoConfederate and racists groups that do and work very hard to keep blacks from voting and participating in government. <br /><br /> The Ukraine government elite are willing to bomb their own citizens to force their political will rather than seek compromise. This is not the way to establish a healthy multicultural multi-ethnic state. The US and the NeoCons have a terrible record of supporting right wing and religious fundamentalist and ethnic dominance groups that have terrible human rights records and cause civil strife. The US wants to blame the whole FAIL on Putin and Russia but the NeoCons and ill considered policy share the majority of the blame and they are being given a free pass. I support a peaceful settlement through compromise. Cheerleading for a Nationalistic government will not produce that result. No matter how much good an EU deal might do the western Ukraine, if it promotes violence, the small amount of good will be overwhelmed.bakhohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16472764185459425186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-36013309565327289612014-07-27T10:51:53.974-04:002014-07-27T10:51:53.974-04:00"And in the meantime, we should of course try..."And in the meantime, we should of course try to destabilize Russia by creating disruptive cheap energy technologies." <br /><br />Trying to destabilize a nuclear power does not sound like a good idea. <br /><br />"Another option is to welcome mass immigration from Russia, thus decreasing the size and power of the Russian ethnic group in the long term."<br /><br />You can take people away but the land will stay there. In case there are problems with China in the future, are you going to suggest destabilizing it and mass immigration to the US to solve the problem? <br /><br />The whole anbalysis rests on the unfounded assumption that if Putin is forced to leave power, Russia will become more democratic? But what about if hardliners win and start threatening everyone with a war? Have you thought of this scenario? <br /><br />Finally, is this analysis the result of Bayesian inference from limited samples and use only of confirmative bias?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-9502403961370742062014-07-27T09:08:22.812-04:002014-07-27T09:08:22.812-04:00Noah,
There is an another option and dearly neede...Noah,<br /><br />There is an another option and dearly needed. We have to move away from this "beating a country, dictator, etc" or war mentality of our foreign policy. The real issue is that EU wants to expand but has no guts, loyalty among themselves, or means to execute any economic policy that would induce such a change. <br /><br />Further, we should seriously consider that EU interest and our interest do not always align. Much of Iraq war was to stop Saddam and any other future tyrant from pricing the oil in anything but dollar. Oil is the gold.<br /><br />Why don't we focus ourselves on us as Americans (and not on Jewish American, Arab American, etc) and rebuild our country using the reprieve of near fossil energy independence and let the crazies kill each other.KVnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-84451120958708221702014-07-26T23:42:05.309-04:002014-07-26T23:42:05.309-04:00A few comments on this, several of these directed ...A few comments on this, several of these directed at remarks made by bakho, but not all.<br /><br />1) Bakho is right that eastern Ukraine is economically dependent on Russia and will not gain from any trade deal with EU. That said, Putin is not the progressive secular leader Bakho claims he is, or that the Ukrainians are as intolerant as he claimes<br /><br />2) This includes the fact that the insane theory of Strelkov that MH17 was full of already dead bodies was actually seriously presented on Russian media. Strelkov had bragged about the downing of MH17 right after it happened, although removed this after it came out it was a commercial plane, only to switch to this wacko theory of it being a zombie plane. As it is, Strelkov/Girkin, the self-appointed Minister of Defense of the separatist regime, is not only a Russian citizen from Moscow, but an advocate of restoring the Russian Empire, headed by a tsar with dominance by the Russian Orthodox Church. He, as well as the official, if also self-appointed, leader of the Donetsk Republic, Alexander Borodai, are both former employees of Konstaintin Malofeev, a Russian billionaire who is closely linked to the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church as well as to close advisors of Putin. Malofeevm has also met with people like Martine Le Pen, leader of the French National Front. Anybody who thinks this separatist movement are living in fantasyland.<br /><br />3) People who whine about NATO expanding eastward should note that it was the nations themselves who asked to join, most notably Poland the Baltic states, all of whom have unhappy experiences of being invaded and annexed by Russia. That Putin is now invading non-NATO states (and, yes, what is happening in eastern Ukrain is an invasion) shows that these nations had completely legitimate grounds for wanting to be in NATO.<br /><br />4) Finally we come to the matter of Crimea. Now from a larger historical perspective, there is a strong argument for Crimea to be a part of Russia. Its shift from Russia to Ukraine under Khrushchev was a historically bizarre event. Certainly ethnic Russians dominate there, far more so than any other part of Ukraine. However, there are some problems here, starting with the 54% vote in 1991 Crimea made to stay with Ukraine (it was not yet obvious how badly Ukraine would be governed, the only former Soviet republic to now have a lower real per capita GDP than in 1991). The biggest one is that in 1993, Russia signed a treaty with Ukraine, US, and UK that it would respect the "territorial integrity" of Ukraine if the latter turned over its nuclear weapons to Russia, which it did. This is a profound violation of a nuclear weapons treaty that has been pretty much ignored by everybody as we all know there is no way in fact to overturn the Russian annexation of Crimea. But it shows how utterly worthless Putin is an international leader whose word is garbage and who should be treated with nothing but contempt and distrust. This matter is far more serious than supporting people who claim that airplanes shot out of the air by his flunkies were full of already dead bodies.<br /><br />Barkley Rosserrosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-58130574269119149512014-07-26T23:23:52.843-04:002014-07-26T23:23:52.843-04:00Oh, and you might also profit from reading Pepe Es...Oh, and you might also profit from reading Pepe Escobar's A chessboard drenched in blood, July 23, Asia Times Online.<br /><br />http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-230714.html<br /><br />Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-50152503064430406532014-07-26T22:35:25.624-04:002014-07-26T22:35:25.624-04:00I'm glad to see more people starting to think ...I'm glad to see more people starting to think seriously about the Russia crisis. But you're pretty obviously a newbie to that part of the world, and I've got to correct you on several points.<br /><br />1) Russia is an incredibly volatile nation, alternating between periods of caution and wild risk-taking. Their last big territorial grab was in 1939-1946, when they grabbed half of Europe, and were poised to take the whole of continental Europe had the United States not intervened.<br /><br />2) Russia isn't mainly interested in formally annexing territory, it's mainly interested in having satellite states. It doesn't need more resources but would love to deprive others of them especially the United States.<br /><br />3) Putin's vision is to make western Europe a reluctant ally through a combination of coercion and corruption, and to dominate the Middle East by arming and financing militias and regimes and where necessary intervening militarily. The most likely direction for a major Russian military expedition would be neither east nor west but south, into the Caucasus and up to or into Iran or Iraq. But for the foreseeable future Russia will be bogged down in Ukraine.<br /><br />4) The policy of threatening serious sanctions over Ukraine has not "worked OK". Russia has annexed Crimea, flouted the post-WWII order of no new border revisions, and paid zero for it. Not only Russia but other regional powers will be encouraged to flout further. Russia has escalated its intervention steadily, and paid practically nothing for it. The downing of MH17 is a direct result of Western inaction. The threat of serious sanctions has been a small help in discouraging Russia from a full-scale invasion, but that was never Russia’s strategy. Putin wants to pressure Ukraine into accepting an internationally brokered peace agreement, that Russia could interpret as allowing it to retain de facto control, along the lines of Transdnistria or pre-2008 Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Then sometime later, as in 2008 in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia could find an excuse to break the agreements and grab total control. Russia also wants to pressure central and western Ukraine into electing a pro-Russian president and parliament, as he successfully did in Georgia.<br /><br />5) Ukraine is not "already too chaotic" to be helped. Ukraine is doing surprisingly well but needs military and financial aid to sustain its fight. What has gone wrong for Putin is the new unity that Ukraine has forged in opposing him. He expected to be supported in almost half of Ukraine, not just in the Donbass but also in Kharkiv, Zaporizhya, Nikolayev, Odessa and maybe even Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson. His militias managed to grab not even half of the Donbass. Lately the Ukrainian national guard (not army, as they haven't formally declared war) has been winning back one city after another. As we speak they are driving between the two largest rebel-held cities, Donetsk and Luhansk, apparently to cut off Donetsk from resupplies. Putin is faced with the awful for him choice of having to invade or letting the whole project fail. Putin does not want to have to fight a full-scale war, that was never part of the plan. <br /><br />6) The “just wait” approach is not wisdom. It’s ignorance and cowardice. I understand that young left-liberals are suspicious of any US international involvement after the neocon failure, and I understand that young left-liberals badly want to support their leader and find some way to explain what he’s doing as wise and good. But that’s a load of crap. Obama doesn’t have a clue about Russia and Ukraine. His Nato generals are frustrated as hell working for such a do-nothing who refuses to shoulder the responsibility he took on to lead the free world. <br /><br />Evil prevails when good men do nothing.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-31202838477501307042014-07-26T22:18:55.905-04:002014-07-26T22:18:55.905-04:00 Branko Milanovic has a pertinent post up today.
... Branko Milanovic has a pertinent post up today.<br /><br />The origins of the Second Cold War: an essay in interpretation<br /><br />http://glineq.blogspot.com/2014/07/normal-0-false-false-false-en-us-x-none_26.html<br /><br />He outlines two narratives about what happened post Cold War. It seems pretty clear that you are presuming one of them.<br /> Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-38681073441795864412014-07-26T22:06:47.925-04:002014-07-26T22:06:47.925-04:00Gross over-simplification of the existing problems...Gross over-simplification of the existing problems with Russia and uh... bad conclusion.<br /><br />So you assume Putin doesn't have a system in place i.e. someone to take over when he passes. You assume a series of events will take place on a linear scale fail to take into account any of the economic advantages Russia has.<br /><br />Let's consider Russia's oil and gas industry for instance, one dominated by his henchman. If they obtain nearby satellite countries for instance, they will also have control of the significant amount of gas and oil flowing through that countries' pipelines and infrastructure. They wield a greater hammer then you're suggesting.Riddler_Thishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10414196094198761696noreply@blogger.com