tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post775356847148687277..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Hive minds of various kindsNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-46420185117479211792012-10-11T05:06:51.480-04:002012-10-11T05:06:51.480-04:00This post boils down to, "This is racist, so ...This post boils down to, "This is racist, so it's wrong!" along with a bunch of logical fallacies and mischaracterizations. Your PhD should be revoked.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-71335029469121618392012-10-11T05:04:37.342-04:002012-10-11T05:04:37.342-04:00Because anecdotal evidence is more important than ...Because anecdotal evidence is more important than statistics...<br /><br />Keep your mouth shut.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-83271434514971092462012-10-11T05:02:24.828-04:002012-10-11T05:02:24.828-04:00Stop being so obtuse.Stop being so obtuse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-90680857057580358542012-10-11T05:02:10.547-04:002012-10-11T05:02:10.547-04:00As Eric Weede pointed out in 2002, Lynn's nati...As Eric Weede pointed out in 2002, Lynn's national IQ data does robustly predict growth (see also, Rati Ram & Heiner Rindermann's work). Jones is ahead of the curve with this.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01133142115539961665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-43003046467235115352012-10-11T04:59:21.556-04:002012-10-11T04:59:21.556-04:00In terms of Lynn's data - Heiner Rindermann, i...In terms of Lynn's data - Heiner Rindermann, in a 2007 paper titled The g‐factor of international cognitive ability comparisons: the homogeneity of results in PISA, TIMSS, PIRLS and IQ‐tests across nations, showed that country IQ estimates of Lynn and Vanhanen were consistent with the educational performance data, and that a country level "G" factor explains most of the variation. <br /><br />http://www.technologyreview.com/view/421665/standard-deviations-around-the-world/Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01133142115539961665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-26157311780571171612012-10-06T18:59:39.460-04:002012-10-06T18:59:39.460-04:00According to technical indices yeah but the viewpo...According to technical indices yeah but the viewpoints of people who describe themselves as "pro-free market" do not map well onto the set of policies Sweden used to achieve those outcomes (ie: large universal benefits and heavy unionization) while people who do support Sweden style setups rarely regard describe themselves as "pro free market"<br /><br />In other words, the reason that people are surprised by that is because of misconceptions about socialism, not misconceptions about SwedenVerdancyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14062788738549767062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-245727122191045242012-10-02T21:48:35.916-04:002012-10-02T21:48:35.916-04:00What does "important" mean in this conte...What does "important" mean in this context?Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-72421115616629268612012-10-02T20:47:46.993-04:002012-10-02T20:47:46.993-04:00My point is that the time series evidence for the ...My point is that the time series evidence for the US and Japan does not contradict the view that IQ is important in determining savings rates (and therefore capital-labor ratios). It merely shows that there must be other factors that are also important (which, to me at least, seems to have been obvious from the beginning and therefore not something that is very interesting to demonstrate).Andy Harlesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17582263872850949568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-82591301819127510622012-10-02T16:50:32.707-04:002012-10-02T16:50:32.707-04:00I know, I know, just saying, eh...I know, I know, just saying, eh...Tonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-88998371339169289632012-10-02T09:28:14.606-04:002012-10-02T09:28:14.606-04:00And I know smokers who lived to be 90. Does this p...And I know smokers who lived to be 90. Does this prove that smoking is not detrimental to your health?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-27916135553456305692012-10-02T08:34:49.362-04:002012-10-02T08:34:49.362-04:00In any human society, cooperation on a large scale...In any human society, cooperation on a large scale occurs through its institutions. Institutions are influenced by culture and evolve within a culture and inherited inter-generationally. <br /><br />Humans are social animals, human societies are composed of groups. Human individuals succeed or fail as their groups succeed or fail. Individuals may move from an unsuccessful group to a successful group, but Individual success or failure is not independent of a group. The focus of economists and economics on the individual is misplaced. <br /><br />-jonny bakhoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-32183574013891639152012-10-02T06:29:04.341-04:002012-10-02T06:29:04.341-04:00"High-IQ people, Jones argues, 1) are more pa..."High-IQ people, Jones argues, 1) are more patient and hence tend to save more, 2) cooperate more, and 3) support more free-market policies."<br /><br />FWIW, with an IQ in the 135 range, I 1) have a current net worth of about $0, 2) like to work alone and 3) would define my general political views a social-democratic.<br />Tonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-49409176525143798562012-10-01T23:44:41.108-04:002012-10-01T23:44:41.108-04:00Jones tests his hypotheses and finds that, for bot...<i>Jones tests his hypotheses and finds that, for both, cognitive ability does matter.</i><br /><br />What, in his cross-country regression of capital-to-output ratios regressed on Lynn's IQ measures?<br /><br />That constitutes an empirically credible test in your eyes?Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-90792849478272544872012-10-01T18:27:27.535-04:002012-10-01T18:27:27.535-04:00As a practising social democrat, I'd point out...As a practising social democrat, I'd point out that you can make a case that greater equality is a prerequisite for a free market economy.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17153530634675543954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-37120211479976542742012-10-01T18:00:36.225-04:002012-10-01T18:00:36.225-04:00You too if it is the person alerting you to con ar...You too if it is the person alerting you to con artists you are refusing to listen to.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-20456846899621459212012-10-01T17:55:28.425-04:002012-10-01T17:55:28.425-04:00"If you think about it carefully, you'll ..."If you think about it carefully, you'll realize that predicting the future is necessary for creating a better future."<br /><br />So if history is path-dependent, as some claim it is, and thus the distant future is near-impossible to predict, then trying to create a better future is a futile attempt. I am sure many people at George Mason will agree with this statement. I have always been of the mindset that people should do the best they can with the things they have control over, as minor as they may be, and hope that everything else works in their favor. But you are right, we have gotten distracted... <br /><br />There are two components in Jones's work. The first involves the impact of cognitive ability, whether measured by IQ scores, PISA scores, SAT scores, or any other similar test, on saving and individual productivity. Jones tests his hypotheses and finds that, for both, cognitive ability does matter. However, he readily acknowledges that differences in cognitive skills through these channels alone cannot explain the majority of economic outcomes. In fact, this is what has led him to a second thesis.<br /><br />His second thesis is that cognitive skills also affect economic outcomes in an indirect way, by leading to pro-social behavior and better-quality institutions that further enhance productivity. Admittedly, Jones has not provided enough empirical support for this second hypothesis. Therefore, while his assertion sounds plausible, in the absence of further evidence we should remain skeptical and aware of the possibility that he is overemphasizing the importance of cognitive skill differences. But this is an issue that can and will be resolved empirically by Jones or people interested in his work. Either way, Jones will get cited (when you are wrong it pays to be wrong on important issues). If only I were so savvy!<br /><br />In my opinion, this is a more fair assessment of Jones's work. CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-2910091108001640682012-10-01T17:53:57.855-04:002012-10-01T17:53:57.855-04:00The con artists must _love_ you.The con artists must _love_ you.waltnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-17089118518109500002012-10-01T17:14:03.945-04:002012-10-01T17:14:03.945-04:00How open-minded of you!How open-minded of you!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-35506161984280687842012-10-01T16:52:59.298-04:002012-10-01T16:52:59.298-04:00No! Because by understanding the past and present ...<i>No! Because by understanding the past and present better we can, perhaps, create a better future!</i><br /><br />If you think about it carefully, you'll realize that predicting the future is necessary for creating a better future. The reason why is not immediately obvious, but it is very deep and powerful.<br /><br /><i>Why not use both, for robustness?</i><br /><br />Why not use a bunch of other correlated measures, for robustness?<br /><br />Look, we've gotten distracted. The original point of contention was that you claimed that the IQ-savings correlation, if significant, was important even if it didn't explain a lot of the variation in saving. I said sure, but Jones' claim in the paper is that IQ is an important piece of the explanation of long-term economic outcomes; the validity of <i>that</i> claim does not follow from the existence of a statistically significant correlation between IQ and savings rates, either contemporaneously or averaged across time...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-19344592916326842842012-10-01T16:50:38.493-04:002012-10-01T16:50:38.493-04:00You're infinitely more patient than I could ha...You're infinitely more patient than I could have been. "The paper, written by Garett Jones of George Mason University..." is where I would have set down my laptop, walked outside, and cursed the universe for ever coming up with homo sapiens. Pat Martiganhttp://berlinmusings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-32675923115799891422012-10-01T16:15:09.926-04:002012-10-01T16:15:09.926-04:00"And then why not just use PISA"
Why no..."And then why not just use PISA"<br /><br />Why not use both, for robustness?CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-69276060677216540912012-10-01T16:13:45.722-04:002012-10-01T16:13:45.722-04:00"PISA is only for the OECD, is it not?"
..."PISA is only for the OECD, is it not?"<br /><br />As far as I know it has been extended so that it now includes over 70 countries.<br /><br />"But only because doing so generally helps us predict the future better."<br /><br />No! Because by understanding the past and present better we can, perhaps, create a better future!CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-46618920648152900332012-10-01T15:57:41.442-04:002012-10-01T15:57:41.442-04:00And with a correlation between national IQ scores ...<i>And with a correlation between national IQ scores and PISA test scores of over 0.91 it is clear to me that IQ scores say something.</i><br /><br />PISA is only for the OECD, is it not? And then why not just use PISA, if there seem to be hidden methodological errors lurking in Lynn?<br /><br /><i>There are proximate causes and ultimate causes. Saving rate differences are a proximate cause for cross-country income differences. You don't see why social scientists should try to peel the onion further?</i><br /><br />Sure! But only because doing so generally helps us predict the future better. Jones is saying that if we know a nation's average IQ, we can make some predictions about its capital intensiveness (and wealth level) in the future...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-50195974718962220642012-10-01T15:53:46.462-04:002012-10-01T15:53:46.462-04:00I agree, but the problem in this case is that Noah...<i>I agree, but the problem in this case is that Noah is giving this paper press that it otherwise would never have (seriously, have you ever heard of this journal?)</i><br /><br />Yep. I don't mind, I think it's better for this sort of thing to be aired in the open than to languish in obscurity.<br /><br /><i>and claiming that it is somewhat representative of work by economists.</i><br /><br />Work? No. Preconceptions and assumptions? Maybe. I've been around a lot of economists, and I've heard these ideas bandied around a <i>lot</i>. I also suspect that they underlie a lot of theorizing that does not explicitly mention IQ, such as the theory of "skill-biased technical change".Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-65198404002767898702012-10-01T15:53:32.363-04:002012-10-01T15:53:32.363-04:00Re. Lynn's data, look, I already conceded that...Re. Lynn's data, look, I already conceded that he took liberties I would not have taken. In the 2006 datasets I think he removed data for countries for which no observations were available rather than use scores from adjacent countries. But there is a wide range between perfect data and "crap on a stick". Very little data used by economists is perfect. The question is how well it correlates with what we really want to measure. And with a correlation between national IQ scores and PISA test scores of over 0.91 it is clear to me that IQ scores say something.<br /><br />"Why do we need IQ as an additional explanatory variable? What increased predictive power does it give us?"<br /><br />Oh, come on Noah. As your responded to me once in the past, "now you trollin', California". There are proximate causes and ultimate causes. Saving rate differences are a proximate cause for cross-country income differences. You don't see why social scientists should try to peel the onion further? Jones's work fits in the discussion of what determines pro-social norms that was, in fact, initiated by leftist economists like Gintis and Bowles. Are you as dismissive of their work, and the work of institutional economists? CAnoreply@blogger.com