tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post777116016258921238..comments2024-03-28T03:16:14.104-04:00Comments on Noahpinion: Robert Barro's famous polemic against New KeynesiansNoah Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-16635755931319803472014-02-06T05:18:37.036-05:002014-02-06T05:18:37.036-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jim Rosehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02233668500637892711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-70773415436517045622014-02-03T01:18:47.884-05:002014-02-03T01:18:47.884-05:00post-2008 talk of crises in macroeconomic thinking...post-2008 talk of crises in macroeconomic thinking are overrated.<br /><br />Thomas Humphrey wrote an excellent 250 year long literature survey of the rules versus discretion debate in the 1998 Richmond Fed Quarterly. <br /><br />He wanted to know if macroeconomics was a progressive science in the sense that superior new ideas relentlessly supplanted inferior old ones. <br /><br />Humphrey found that:<br />• Keynesian ideas about a lack of demand and their many antecedents gain currency when unemployment was the main concern.<br />• Monetarist ideas tended to reign when price stability was the main problem.<br /><br />The policy debate keeps recycling because <br />1. people forget the lessons of the past and<br />2. For better or worse, politicians and the public have tended to believe that central banks, the focus of his studies, have the power to boost output, employment, and growth permanently. <br /><br />Humphrey showed that stable policy rules are popular in good times to contain inflation, and when unemployment was rising, discretionary monetary policies returned to policy vogue. <br /><br />Humphrey concluded that doctrinal historian knows that much of what passes for novelty and originality in monetary theory and policy is ancient teachings dressed up in modern guises.<br />Jim Rosenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-15025192711851417702014-01-29T07:53:54.464-05:002014-01-29T07:53:54.464-05:00Noah: "In other words, Barro is accusing New ...Noah: "In other words, Barro is accusing New Keynesians of reverse-engineering policy conclusions."<br /><br />It is not only Barro and freshwater economists that accuse New Keynesians of this. I vividly recall a post by Nick Rowe: http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2013/11/optimal-fiscalmonetary-policy-in-hybrid-oldnew-keynesian-models.html<br /><br />The main point is that if one examinest New Keynesian model by itself there are more policy conclusions, to be made. For instance <br /><br />Nick here points out that it is only if you approach New Keynesian models with Old Keynesian intuition that you get results that you want. But this is then mixing two theories.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14853090724221729923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-9858589223054993692014-01-27T19:17:47.143-05:002014-01-27T19:17:47.143-05:00"I get none of this feeling when Krugman spea..."I get none of this feeling when Krugman speaks or writes."<br /><br />lol. Are these "feelings" like good vibrations & can anyone else tune to the frequency ?<br />I get the feeling that some people suffer from an acute Rodney Dangerfield complex when it comes to Krugman. He was not even in the conversation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-80256762955950522222014-01-26T18:35:55.395-05:002014-01-26T18:35:55.395-05:00absalon demonstrates his ignorance.
I hope the ba...<i>absalon demonstrates his ignorance.</i><br /><br />I hope the barbarians get you first.Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-8409703586206823642014-01-26T15:18:15.362-05:002014-01-26T15:18:15.362-05:00Chorus: THANKS, KRUGMAN!!
*cut to commercial brea...Chorus: THANKS, KRUGMAN!!<br /><br />*cut to commercial break*Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-79462446649924599852014-01-26T15:12:22.794-05:002014-01-26T15:12:22.794-05:00Krugman fixed that for you.Krugman fixed that for you.Joseph Brennerhttp://obsidianrook.com/mapnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-75051698037293680182014-01-26T15:10:19.445-05:002014-01-26T15:10:19.445-05:00"There's often good enough macro data to ..."There's often good enough macro data to tell what doesn't work, but usually not enough to tell what does work, which is a much taller order."<br /><br />Well, yeah... you must've heard about the idea of "falsification", right? And the reason Popper and followers tried to elevate it to the central role in the scientific method is because positive knowledge is so difficult to attain.<br /><br />In practice, a theory that manages to explain and predict and that survives for some time without disproof will get regarded as true, at least provisionally... provided it's capable of disproof.<br /><br />Joseph Brennerhttp://obsidianrook.com/mapnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-17806656523890217272014-01-26T14:33:00.997-05:002014-01-26T14:33:00.997-05:00absalon demonstrates his ignorance.absalon demonstrates his ignorance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-81643276648507926802014-01-26T13:45:32.398-05:002014-01-26T13:45:32.398-05:00@James - there are the Austrians and the Communist...@James - there are the Austrians and the Communists but they are more circle jerks than serious schools of economics.<br /><br />@Noah - it seems to me that the difficult math of DSGE forces too many constraints on the models to be a useful approach. Big data should allow us to track neighborhood by neighborhood the effects on spending of government policy. Better computer modelling techniques would help too. Absalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09131268683451462949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-24631555728610160592014-01-25T19:04:24.563-05:002014-01-25T19:04:24.563-05:00Wait, did he actually swear? It reads like the F ...Wait, did he actually swear? It reads like the F word or possible GD?Charlie Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02079017903923824877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-47945130187960652932014-01-25T17:25:18.521-05:002014-01-25T17:25:18.521-05:00Miles will be great, just keep from asking his pat...Miles will be great, just keep from asking his patented 17-part question...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-55513434696151192132014-01-25T17:14:46.395-05:002014-01-25T17:14:46.395-05:00For sure, Noah. It was great having you there. Too...For sure, Noah. It was great having you there. Too bad Miles couldn't make it, but let's try for next year. Let's see how many loud-mouthed bloggers we can attract to the event! :)David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-68876540587221627042014-01-25T17:08:10.123-05:002014-01-25T17:08:10.123-05:00Next time, next time. That's why you have to i...Next time, next time. That's why you have to invite me back! ;-)<br /><br />It really was awesome to get yelled at by Bob Lucas, though. Even though he was actually yelling at inflation, not me.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-78915815746842403822014-01-25T17:01:15.653-05:002014-01-25T17:01:15.653-05:00Well, you could have come back to me for the abuse...Well, you could have come back to me for the abuse you were so sorely craving. ;) David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-8430087212254988942014-01-25T16:46:43.961-05:002014-01-25T16:46:43.961-05:00Hmm. As I recall, I initially asked Bullard if the...Hmm. As I recall, I initially asked Bullard if the Fed's carefully cultivated anti-inflation attitude might be hurting efforts to get Americans to believe that 2% is really a target instead of a ceiling, and if maybe it might help shift expectations if the Fed Chair were to openly muse about 4% inflation not being so bad.<br /><br />Then Lucas broke in and said "We <i>tried</i> @#$!&$# inflation in the 70s, and it didn't work!"<br /><br />Then I went over to him afterward and explained what I had really meant - not that there was a Phillips Curve, but that the Fed might accidentally be seeming too scared of inflation to even hit a 2% target - and he basically just said "I see what you mean, but no. Price stability is the most important thing." And that's all we had time for before a bunch of people came over and started talking to him.Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-88344997397160388982014-01-25T16:29:59.388-05:002014-01-25T16:29:59.388-05:00I'm sure that Krugman is a wonderful human bei...I'm sure that Krugman is a wonderful human being. Regarding Lucas, I think he can be a meanie. I saw him smack Williamson around pretty good. I saw him smack you down pretty darn good too. So yes, he can come across as dismissive. The question is: what comes after? Is he willing to talk? Is he willing to listen? Does he keep an open mind? Or is he instead blinded by religion? Why don't you tell us what happened when you went up to speak with him personally after he dismissed your comment at the St Louis Fed Q&A event? David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-5470004536477588792014-01-25T16:28:41.834-05:002014-01-25T16:28:41.834-05:00But it's true that the moment to which you are...But it's true that the moment to which you are referring was pretty much the highlight of my econ conference-going career...Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-41107379875013845892014-01-25T15:51:15.919-05:002014-01-25T15:51:15.919-05:00I haven't met Krugman, but I hear he's ver...I haven't met Krugman, but I hear he's very friendly and nice in person.<br /><br />I'm not saying Lucas is a big meanie. I'm saying his critique of Ball & Mankiw is dismissive. Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-37311626704588434012014-01-25T15:05:30.435-05:002014-01-25T15:05:30.435-05:00Noah,
With respect to your update. I wasn't t...Noah,<br /><br />With respect to your update. I wasn't there, but I have seen Lucas deliver a very harsh critique of a paper presented by Steve Williamson on New Monetarism. He basically said that there was "nothing new" in it (blah, blah, blah). But afterward, I saw Williamson and Lucas chatting with each other, laughing. <br /><br />I think you may have experienced something like this yourself. Lucas comes at you hard, but you get the feeling that he is equally hard with himself. And heck, it's all just meant to provoke an honest discussion.<br /><br />I get none of this feeling when Krugman speaks or writes. David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-36383926858406398562014-01-25T15:04:18.825-05:002014-01-25T15:04:18.825-05:00Lucas: In economic policy, the frontier never chan...Lucas: In economic policy, the frontier never changes. The issue is always mercantilism and government intervention vs. laissez faire and free markets.<br /><br />So, that is their POV at least.Dimitarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14817426354343784512noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-81469832082076642052014-01-25T14:52:07.640-05:002014-01-25T14:52:07.640-05:00This is an important issue.This is an important issue.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-83891640810673592042014-01-25T14:36:05.144-05:002014-01-25T14:36:05.144-05:00there's aren't just two schools. But those...there's aren't just two schools. But those two schools like to pretend that there are only two schools.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-53145387766823524882014-01-25T12:20:23.003-05:002014-01-25T12:20:23.003-05:00Coincidently I caught Robert's son Josh Barro ...Coincidently I caught Robert's son Josh Barro on Real Time with Bill Maher and he was really good, especially at arguing monetary policy with Carly Fiorina. I was impressed.Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08272747870634233567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17232051.post-12890288082096009992014-01-25T10:41:11.300-05:002014-01-25T10:41:11.300-05:00You're welcome! Sadly, almost no one read it. ...You're welcome! Sadly, almost no one read it. ;-)Noah Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09093917601641588575noreply@blogger.com