New Atlantic column: Who will be better for the economy, Obama or Romney?

I have a new column up in the Atlantic, which tries to answer the question of "Which candidate will be better for the economy?". The short answer: We don't really know, since there are so many things we don't know about candidates, politics, and how the economy really works. But there are a few issues on which Democrats have consistently proven themselves to be more responsible and sensible than Republicans over the past thirty years, and there is no reason to think these patters will change soon. From the column:

1. The National Debt...Since the national debt began climbing in 1981, a clear partisan pattern has emerged: Republican presidents have tended to expand the deficit more than Democratic ones...Has the pattern been broken [under Obama]?...[There is] a hugely important difference between Obama and his debt-ballooning Republican counterparts - Obama's deficits have come during a historic recession, while Reagan and Bush borrowed money while the economy was expanding...So Obama's deficits at least might be a temporary phenomenon, while the Reagan and Bush deficits were clear indicators of a short-sighted, unsustainable policy...This suggests that if we care about reversing the deficit once the economy recovers (as it now seems to be doing), we should go with Obama over Romney, despite Obama's large deficits... 

2. The Full Faith and Credit of the U.S....In 2011, Congress' near-failure to raise the debt ceiling nearly precipitated a default on a portion of America's national debt....Four days after the debt ceiling deal, Standard & Poor's downgraded their rating of U.S. government debt...Why should we blame Republicans for the debt ceiling debacle, rather than President Obama?...First, congressional Republicans repeatedly rejected Obama's attempts at compromise... Second, Republicans themselves expressed a blasé lack of concern about the prospect of default...Romney's membership in a party that reduced the value of the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is a reason to vote for Obama. The off chance that the GOP would actually tolerate a sovereign default is enough to tip the scales strongly in favor of the Democrat... 

3. Public Goods...Our crumbling infrastructure received a "D" grade from the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2009. Obama's 2009 "stimulus" bill plugged some of the gap, but a more sustained effort is needed. However, Romney's budget plan includes large cuts in the part of the budget that pays for public goods, and Republicans in general have shown very little inclination to repair our aging roads, bridges, electrical grids, and ports... 

I say we focus on the areas where we have good evidence. On the issues of fiscal responsibility, debt default brinksmanship, and infrastructure spending, Democrats have come out looking better than Republicans again and again since 1980. There is no reason to think that Mitt Romney would change the Republican side of that pattern. Barack Obama is the safest bet.

Now, note that I am trying to be objective here, and wear only my economist hat. I personally have a lot more reasons to vote for Obama - social issues in particular. But even when we just talk about the economics, I think Obama comes out looking like the more rational choice.